Could the two carriers with their fighter complements stave off Japanese air attack to such an extent that the British squadron might have arrived in Singapore without the loss of the capital ships?
Could the two carriers with their fighter complements stave off Japanese air attack to such an extent that the British squadron might have arrived in Singapore without the loss of the capital ships?
Since the IJN Airforce was launching its bombers in search and destroy type mission fashion, the change one would sight and attack the larger than OTL British force was increased, rahter than decreased. It would also radio the location to its fellow bombersquadrons, so the result would be simmilar as in the OTL. Thsi time the presence of a carrier would only reult in the deployement of the Zero groups as well, to escort the bombers and knock down the expected CAP.Given a straight addition of a carrier to the OTL "final" situation... there's three obvious changes:
1. Having Fighters up may be able to disrupt the Japanese attack (depends on how many Zeros were with the bombers at the time).
Depends on the types of fighters, as the Hermes was still equipped with the biplane SeaGladiator, which was slower than the IJN bombers of the day.
2. The Japanese have to split their attacks over three rather than two targets.
The IJN bombers already had been split up in seperate groups and actually did not coordinate their attacks.
3. The poms have significantly more heavy AA.
That seems to be debatable at best, given the problems of faulty munittions experienced by Force-Z during the airattack.
So, there's a chance that between those three the Japanese attacks are less effective. I'd still expect at least one ship to be crippled or sunk though, and likely the others damaged enough they have to withdraw from Singapore.
But the reality is by including the carriers you change the board completely...
1. The carrier is unlikely to come alone (add additional Destroyers and Cruisers to Force Z).
The Royal Navy barely had spare ships and these were more needed in other parts of the world of bigger importance (Europe). Destroyers were very short in supply and could not be spared for the Eastern Fleet. Cruisers too were in short supply and the ones actually in the region were mostly old D class obsolete and unmodernised vessels. Perhaps it would have been better to join an early form of ABDA alliance, but time simply was too short to do so.
2. The Japanese will react at the minimum by ensuring their bombers have extra escorts.
3. The carrier's aircraft change the situation... Japanese submarines forced to run deep to avoid British ASW sweeps (less chance of Force Z being spotted); Japanese search aircraft shot down (ditto) and the Brits able to dispatch their own aircraft to check the false report of a Japanese landing that caused Force Z to divert on it's way back south in OTL.
Also debatable, as the ASW capabilities of the four DD's in the OTL was compromised by the high speed of the TF, denying them to slow down to make use of their ASDIC sets. The Carrier too would not have made much difference as it only had a few bombers available for ASW at all time, since it also had to keep back some against the expected IJN surface forces, which Force Z was hunting for in the first place.
So, there's actually a fair chance that Force Z would end up withdrawing back to Singapore undetected. Of cause, then it'll either have to venture back out, tempting fate again; withdraw or come under air attack in harbour...
Since the IJN Airforce was launching its bombers in search and destroy type mission fashion, the change one would sight and attack the larger than OTL British force was increased, rahter than decreased. It would also radio the location to its fellow bombersquadrons, so the result would be simmilar as in the OTL. Thsi time the presence of a carrier would only reult in the deployement of the Zero groups as well, to escort the bombers and knock down the expected CAP.
By the way, the first contact was made at dusk, when flightoperations were not possible. The overflying IJN patrol aircraft missed to spot the British, but the British did not know that at the time. Perhaps a better sighting IJN crew in the planes could have sighted the larger taskforce.
I thought the RN had night operations training fro their Carrier Squadrons?
Perhaps with an aerial recon capability Phillips wouldn't have taken his fleet right up to 120 miles off Vietnam as he blundered around looking for something to do. Perhaps the carriers would have protected the capital ships' seaward flank as they went to Khota Baru and attacked the landing there.
That is correct, although only in ASUW, not ASW in late 1941. HMS Hermes certainly was not equipped for ASW missions anyway, lacking the required equipment for her Swordfishes. HMS Indomitable had this equipment after spring 1942, so still too late.
Admiral Phillips was not an Aircraft supporter, but a classical Naval Officer trained in the old fashioned pre-aircraft period of teh Royal Navy. He did not alter his tactics, even at Singapore, knowing the IJN and IJA airforces had concentrated in the Saigon area and only asked fro airsupport AFTER his Flagship already had been mortally wounded.
This makes it unlikely he would use airpower otherwise, with the presence of a carrier, as it was even likely he would have had this carrier ordered to operate independently from his big gunned ships. (Like Admiral Cunningham had done in the Mediteranean Sea.)
I can't stand Phillips, he was an incompetent halfwit, almost as bad as Percival for idiocy.
Leaving aside his disdain for aircraft how can you explain his track prior to the air attacks which took him within spitting distance of Vietnam, almost running into an IJN cruiser force in the process?
As for the aircraft, by Decemeber 1941 the RN had been at war for more than 2 years and had given and received powerful air attacks from Norway to Crete. That Phillips didn't incorporate this hard-won experience and act accordingly shows that he was indeed incompetant.
Oh and what of the opinion of the US and UK officers that the Japanese were a bunch of incompetent savages? By that moment, not one battleship has been lost at sea as a consequence of an air attack. Yes, bunch was lost in the harbor, at anchor. It was hard to imagine that aircraft could successfully take on a battleship in its natural element. Royal Navy by that moment had ample experience (which you mention, btw) of operating in the conditions of aerial inferiority and managed to come through every time. And it was against the Germans, not the Japanese.
Phillips may have made a few mistakes, but it was understandable at the time.
HMS Hermes was only equipped with the biplane SeaGladiator as fighter, besides her normal complement of Swordfishes. Hardly effective, as the Gladiator was slower than the G3N and G4N bombers the IJN used. HMS Indomitable only had a small number of aircraft as well, primarily navalised SeaHurricane fighters, with non foldiong wings, reducing the total number of aircraft to around 30 at best. A smaller number of Fulmar twinseat fighter/spotters were also included as well as the normal number of around a dozen or so Swordfishes and Albacores. The Sea Hurricane was a capable, but short ranged fighter, but inferior to the A6M-2 also present, but not deployed in the OTL against Force-Z. The IJN had two groups of around 36 each fighters around Saigon, which had the range to reach Singapore, when using droptanks. With a total of 72 Zero's available, the Royal Navy's two illequipped carriers could only boost around 30 or so fighters, all of whom were inferior in speed and performance to the IJN Aircraft.
Conclusion would be the Royal Navy might be better of without these flattops, as these would go the same way as the HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse otherwise.
Out of curiosity, what were Hosho, Zuiho and Ryujo doing at the time? Obviously the six fleet carriers are all rather busy elsewhere, but if the Japanese know that the British have carrier support in the area would it cause them to bring their own light carriers out to play? Or were they also being used elsewhere and in some capacity where they couldn't be reassigned to hit Force Z without crippling part of the initial offensive?