WI: Hitler's incursion into the Rhineland fails

In 1936, Hitler recognized that his military was not strong enough to oppose the British ro the French at that moment in time, so when he ordered the German Army to march into the Rhineland, he gave the troops a secondary order: If the French offered any resistance, the troops were to retreat back to Germany.

Of course, France never offered any resistance and Hitler marched into the Rhineland unopposed.

But what if the French did offer resistance and the troops retreated back to Germany?
 
IIRC right, didn't Hitler's generals strongly opposed going into the Rhineland? If so, then Hitler might face a huge blowback from them. Since he ignored them, and they were proven right.
 
Let me recycle an old soc.history.what-if post of mine:

***

James Thomas Emmerson, in his book _The Rhineland Crisis: 7 March 1936_ concluded that Hitler would have resisted the French. Yes, he acknowledges, several times Hitler was to say subsequently that had the French marched in, he would have had to beat an ignominious retreat, but he usually said that to boast about his "nerves of steel", show how much more daring and wise he was than his diplomats and generals, etc. (Actually, the generals didn't put up any real opposition. Fritsch said he agreed that remilitarization of the Rhineland was a necessity, but evidently had some reservations--he agreed to it only after Hitler assured him the operation would not result in hostilities. Blomberg had no objections at all. As for the diplomats, Foreign Minister Neurath probably expressed personal reservations, but did not challenge the Fuhrer. Neither Hitler nor Neurath nor the generals thought that France would act so long as it was clear that the action was not a preparation for an attack on France--for this reason the number of troops participating in the remilitarization was limited.) The actual military orders, Emmerson claims, show that resistance was intended. Moreover, Hitler's statement to Schuschnigg in 1938, often used to bolster the theory that Hitler wouldn't resist, actually was that Germany "would withdraw perhaps 60 kilometers but would still hold the French."

An important fact to remember is that the French army in 1936 had no strike force capable of marching as far as Mainz, let alone occupying the entire Rhineland. Nor did it possess a single unit which could be made instantly combat-ready. To resist militarily, the French required mobilization, which would take time--and during that time, it would no doubt be evident how totally isolated the French would be in favoring force. Moreover, the French army believed that the Rhineland had really been militarized for a long time--they counted, besides the newly introduced troops, 30,000 members of the labor service and 30,000 members of the Landespolizei and other police organizations as combat forces. They also counted over 200,000 "auxiliaries"--all Germans in the Rhineland who belonged to such organizations as the SA, SS, and NSKK (motorized corps of the SA). These, the French believed, would put up a stiff resistance in familiar terrain, certainly for as long as would be required for Blomberg to bring in his reinforcements.

Gamelin believed that he could establish a foothold on German soil, but that his advance would be halted rapidly, both by supply problems and by the enemy--he counted not only over a million Germans already under arms but millions of members of pre- and para-military formations, disciplined, partially trained, and capable of being integrated into fighting units with reasonable speed. They might only be cannon fodder in the short run, but eventually the weight of Germany's larger population would tell, especially since France had no equivalent pool of semi-skilled manpower.

Although it is clear in retrospect that the French overestimated German military strength, that doesn't mean that an occupation of the Rhineland would have been a walkover. Hitler was not bluffing. The Aachen, Trier, and Saarbrucken battalions were under orders, not to flee, but to pull back into previously prepared positions, where their job was to "halt the enemy advance" for as long as possible before pulling back again to designated defensive areas. J.A.S. Grenville, in _A History of the World in the Twentieth Century_ (1994), comes to the same conclusion: "It is a myth that all that was required to humiliate Hitler was a French show of strength...German troops were to withdraw as far as the Ruhr and there to stay and fight. But in view of earlier French political and military decisions it was obvious that the only French counter-moves would be diplomatic." (p. 224) Hitler knew that France had not marched in March- April 1935 during the conscription crisis--and the Reich was considerably stronger eleven months later.

It is far from clear to me that if the French had marched into the Rhineland, this would have brought down the Hitler government--it might have had the opposite effect of unifying Germans around him against the invader (particularly if they saw that Britain and other nations were critical of the French move). The French, in any event, had unpleasant memories of their occupations of the Rhineland during the 1920's, and put their trust in the Maginot Line they were building.

BTW, there was one way for Germany to remilitarize the Rhineland which wouldn't even have involved the slight risk Hitler actually incurred. Hitler could simply have proclaimed that the 14,000 Landespolizei in the Rhineland were hereby incorporated into the Wehrmacht! France was most unlikely to have intervened to stop a "militarization" that did not immediately increase by even one the number of armed German forces in the Rhineland. Yet once the principle of remilitarization was established, Germany could then gradually add to their number.

I don't know why Hitler didn't choose this low-risk approach to remilitarization. Probably it was (as suggested by Emmerson) because he wanted a _dramatic_ proof to the Germans that their "slavery" had ended-- troops marching across the bridges, aircraft over the Cologne Cathedral, etc.

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/qtvUxyKQ6hI/tVfsLI6cbMUJ
 
...James Thomas Emmerson, in his book _The Rhineland Crisis: 7 March 1936_ concluded that Hitler would have resisted the French...
I used this for an essay on the issue, nearly forty years ago. Very detailed study, though not, from what I recall, a particularly good read.

The Germans, as Emmerson conclusively, to my mind, shows, would have conducted a fighting retreat, if push had come to shove. Hitler could simply not have lost face by offering no resistance, though of course he was right in thinking he wouldn't have to.
 
Kline-Albrandt had a somewhat different take. I don't have his books at had nor my lecture notes from 1980, but from memory this is where the ability of the Germans to resist breaks down.

... Moreover, the French army believed that the Rhineland had really been militarized for a long time--they counted, besides the newly introduced troops, 30,000 members of the labor service and 30,000 members of the Landespolizei and other police organizations as combat forces. They also counted over 200,000 "auxiliaries"--all Germans in the Rhineland who belonged to such organizations as the SA, SS, and NSKK (motorized corps of the SA). These, the French believed, would put up a stiff resistance in familiar terrain, certainly for as long as would be required for Blomberg to bring in his reinforcements.

Gamelin believed that he could establish a foothold on German soil, but that his advance would be halted rapidly, both by supply problems and by the enemy--he counted not only over a million Germans already under arms but millions of members of pre- and para-military formations, disciplined, partially trained, and capable of being integrated into fighting units with reasonable speed. They might only be cannon fodder in the short run, but eventually the weight of Germany's larger population would tell, especially since France had no equivalent pool of semi-skilled manpower.

...

K-A did not dismiss the assorted 'Black Reserve', but was skeptical of its ability to field real resistance on short notice. From interviews with Reichwehr and Wehrmacht era officers he concluded the real value of the police, police auxiliaries, SA, ect... was as a manpower pool for the army to use in filling out existing formations and forming new with the armies trained leader cadres. That, in resistance on their own against French reservist in combat formations the assorted German groups would have lacked any effective command & control, or tactical discipline for effective resistance. K-A noted the agreement of the army leaders was based on the assurance and assumption of non intervention. My take is they had reliable information the French leaders would not. K-A was confident that had the French invaded the Army leaders had zero interest in fighting a war in 1936 & would have taken action to stop it.

Back in the 1960s there was a historical school that claimed the senior French army & airfare leaders were flat out lying to the politicians concerning the German and French military strengths. The support for this view was never really clear to me. Tho the other explanations for why they Gamelin was so wrong seem weak as well.
 
Apologies for the slight necro, just found this.

So, is the conclusion then that a) the Germans would have backed down without a fight and b) had it come to a war, the Germans would have lost? How severe a defeat are we looking at, here? Franco-Prussian War level, but in reverse?

Also, any concrete data as to the total strength of the Wehrmacht at the time of the Rhineland Crisis?
 
The thread is only six weeks old. Hardly a necro.

My memory of the literature of the 1960s & 70s is had the French intended to intervene the Germans would have backed down. Worst or maybe best case the Army would have 'enforced' it. Since I don't have any of those books at hand I can't sort out what it was based on. Tho it was a common conclusion then. The idea a continuing resistance would have developed seems based on the plans of intent of nazi & army leaders who knew the French would not intervene in a serious way.

Give the will there is little doubt the French could have cleared the Rhineland, even with fill on German resistance. The trick is the French leaders of the moment had little stomach for such a thing. Conversely its unlikely the German leaders would have cared to risk were French armies marching north along the west bank of the Rhine. Fanatics notwithstanding.
 
BTW, there was one way for Germany to remilitarize the Rhineland which wouldn't even have involved the slight risk Hitler actually incurred. Hitler could simply have proclaimed that the 14,000 Landespolizei in the Rhineland were hereby incorporated into the Wehrmacht! France was most unlikely to have intervened to stop a "militarization" that did not immediately increase by even one the number of armed German forces in the Rhineland. Yet once the principle of remilitarization was established, Germany could then gradually add to their number.

Intriguing possibility there.

I can see why Hitler preferred something more overt; but under other circumstances, this alternative would have been quite a clever move.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
BTW, there was one way for Germany to remilitarize the Rhineland which wouldn't even have involved the slight risk Hitler actually incurred. Hitler could simply have proclaimed that the 14,000 Landespolizei in the Rhineland were hereby incorporated into the Wehrmacht! France was most unlikely to have intervened to stop a "militarization" that did not immediately increase by even one the number of armed German forces in the Rhineland. Yet once the principle of remilitarization was established, Germany could then gradually add to their number.
Intriguing possibility there.
I don't know why Hitler didn't choose this low-risk approach to remilitarization. Probably it was (as suggested by Emmerson) because he wanted a _dramatic_ proof to the Germans that their "slavery" had ended-- troops marching across the bridges, aircraft over the Cologne Cathedral, etc.
I can see why Hitler preferred something more overt; but under other circumstances, this alternative would have been quite a clever move.
Beside the "propaganda" there was also another reason, why esp. the militaries "needed" the remilitarization :
  • recruiting area

The Wehrmacht was in deer need of recruits to fullfill their ... "ambitious" if not exaggerated plan for strengh-build-up.
A General Staff proposal for a 33 division peace army of july 1925 was just that : a proposal.
The discussion was already going further towards the plan of 01.08.1936 of :
  • 32 infantry divisions,
  • 4 motorized infantry division,
  • 3 Panzer-divisions,
  • 1 cavalry and 1 mountain brigades as well as
  • 3 "light" dividions (mixture of light tanks, motorized parts and some cavalry).
All summing up to ~ 830.00 men peacetime army.

So, for the autumn drafts of 1936 they were rather ... desperate for recruits.
Same reason the "Rheinland-question" was discussed between the militaries and the diplomats already since spring 1935.

(main source :
-"Ursachen und Voraussetzungen des Zweiten Weltkrieges" (Reasons and requirements of the Second World War; Deist, Messerschmidt, Volkmann, Wette; part 1 of "Das Deutsche Reich und der Zweite Weltkrieg" of the Militärgeschichtliches Forschungsamt, Freiburg
-"Akten zur deutschen auswärtigen Politik 1918-1945", out of the archiev of the Foreign Office; Göttingen 1995)
 

NoMommsen

Donor
...

Also, any concrete data as to the total strength of the Wehrmacht at the time of the Rhineland Crisis?
From the source I mentioned above.

Draw up of forces autumn 1935 :
24 infantry division, 3 Panzer divisions (in its infancy), 2 cavalry division , 1 cavalry brigade, 1 mountain brigade
most units still far from "complete", esp. the Panzer division mainly administrative (only a few dozens PzKw I)
all in all about 400.000 men​

In summer/autumn 1935 calculated war-army for 01.04.1936 :
28 infantry division, ... (further numbers not known to me)

Therefore I would envision something between 420.000 to 500.000 men available at the time in question.
 
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