WI: Hitler vs Mussolini - Military Options?

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Say after the Anschluss, Hitler sets his pan-germanic sights on South Triol before the Sudetenland

Furious with the Italian Fascist policy of aggressive Italianization of the province, which included banning the German language and forcefully deporting/dispersing Hitler's "Volk", Hitler demands Triol to go the way of Austria and be immediately annexed, or it will be war.

(Exactly like Munich)

Mussolini, fresh off his successful war in Abyssina, calls Hitler's bluff.

The German Wehrmacht cross over the Italian boarder, summer 1938.

What happens next?
 
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They fail to make any progress, as the entire setup heavily favors the Italians. A few days later, the General Staff stages a coup against Hitler.
 

Yuelang

Banned
with far better army, Mussolini march and take the entirety of Triol out of spite. He end up regarded as successful leader and an example for future Italians to aspire into...
 
The land war will be tricky (unless someone can talk Yugoslavia into free passage or something), but the air war should be nasty.
 
This scenario is extremely unlikely. As far back as *Mein Kampf* Hitler had made it clear that he valued good relations with Italy much more than regaining the South Tyrol. He reiterated this in his unpublished "second book": https://books.google.com/books?id=8nt0-BeF2rUC&pg=PA244 In fact, the original purpose of the second book was to answer his critics on the South Tyrol. https://books.google.com/books?id=nV-N10gyoFwC&pg=PA291
Hitler wasn't exactly the consistent type, TBH ...

Contrary to the general consensus on this topic, this isn't a foregone Italian victory. That doesn't mean the Wehrmacht isn't looking at anything but a perilous uphill slog. Although Mussolini has the numbers and the doctrine (and, y'know, actual battle experience), the German army is, when all's said and done, a more sophisticated fighting force, and the introduction of two new corps circa 1937 may offset any hypothetical imbalance of forces.
 
Hitler wasn't exactly the consistent type, TBH ...

Contrary to the general consensus on this topic, this isn't a foregone Italian victory. That doesn't mean the Wehrmacht isn't looking at anything but a perilous uphill slog. Although Mussolini has the numbers and the doctrine (and, y'know, actual battle experience), the German army is, when all's said and done, a more sophisticated fighting force, and the introduction of two new corps circa 1937 may offset any hypothetical imbalance of forces.

It is going to be a long war that starts at a time when Germany is losing the peace and Germany is going to be the aggressor meaning Count Ciano can probably arrange some kind of credit arrangement with the UK and French.

The terrain will marginalise the effects of the most effective portions of the Wehrmacht and maximise the opportunities for the parts of the Italian armed forces that did work well...such as their artillery to do maximum damage.

All in all though what will do for Germany is the economic strain of an actual war on top of their rearmament which will eat up all the extra resources from Austria and then some and not see them win any new resources inside of a year. It is unlikely that the German economy will go down in 1939 but you will start to hear the sound of wheels coming off and Hitler faces the stark choice of either abandoning his lebensraum project or losing the war...which will likely do for his project anyway.

This of course assumes that France and Britain sit it out on the side lines when they can do so much to add to Germany's pain short of out right war.
 
This of course assumes that France and Britain sit it out on the side lines when they can do so much to add to Germany's pain short of out right war.

I don't think so.

Mussolini was incredibly mistrusted in the West after the brutal war in Abyssina. Being thrown out of the League of Nations and whatnot

It's arguable that the West might nominally support Hitler in this war, which would probably mean sitting around and doing nothing.
 
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Mussolini was incredibly mistrusted in the West after the brutal war in Abyssina.

But not enough to even thinking to side with Hilter even nominally, Benny was always considered the lesser evil and something more reasonable and even at the beginning of the war France and Britain tried to keep him neutral.

Taking in consideration that this kind of war is very difficult to happen, as the original Anshluss has been done after getting permission from Italy, so we are talking about a sudden and catastrophic change of the diplomatic situation between Italy and Germany.
Said that, this is exactely the war the italian army has been equipped and trained to fight, the terrain (and the fortification already built there) basically maximize any italian advantage and nullify the germans, making the war a long attrition war that will bleed Germany till they say stop and retreat.
 
I don't think so.

Mussolini was incredibly mistrusted in the West after the brutal war in Abyssina.

It's arguable that the West might nominally support Hitler in this war, which would probably mean sitting around and doing nothing.


I find that somewhat...of a leap. The London and Paris elites distrust Mussolini, he is a nasty belligerent dictator but Hitler is a nasty belligerent dictator who is an actual threat to the global order as they understood it...and that was was the assessment of people who quite liked the man, there were already many who utterly loathed him.

Then add in folk memories of Italians vaguely being on "our" side and the all too raw memory of Germany most definitely not...not at all a starter.

And as you point out supporting Germany amounts to doing nothing...so...

There are ways and ways of helping, a nicely indebted Italy recovering from a small but nasty war could be helped to remember exactly how much its owes. A little bit of judiciously unequal embargoing would not exactly decide the war by itself but would help push down the Germany economy and rearmament programs and help ensure Germany does not win.

Something as simple as bidding up oil futures in the US-European trade by not all that much and then helping Italy cover the cost while leaving Germany out to dry would have had quite the impact.
 
Hitler wasn't exactly the consistent type, TBH ...

The point is though that this just doesn't make any strategic sense. By getting the Sudetenland, Hitler made Czechoslovakia defenseless, and thus opened the way for eventually acquiring its extremely valuable armaments industry. By attacking South Tyrol, he simply alienates an ally he has gone to considerable lengths to woo, and in return gains--what? If he "wins," his victory is simply likely to bring about a new Italian government and a new Stresa Front.
 
The point is though that this just doesn't make any strategic sense. By getting the Sudetenland, Hitler made Czechoslovakia defenseless, and thus opened the way for eventually acquiring its extremely valuable armaments industry. By attacking South Tyrol, he simply alienates an ally he has gone to considerable lengths to woo, and in return gains--what? If he "wins," his victory is simply likely to bring about a new Italian government and a new Stresa Front.

Yes but most of the Hitler wanks don't make any sense either. This is barmy but it is a thought experiment. Address it in those terms.
 
The point is though that this just doesn't make any strategic sense. By getting the Sudetenland, Hitler made Czechoslovakia defenseless, and thus opened the way for eventually acquiring its extremely valuable armaments industry. By attacking South Tyrol, he simply alienates an ally he has gone to considerable lengths to woo, and in return gains--what? If he "wins," his victory is simply likely to bring about a new Italian government and a new Stresa Front.

Unless the Pod is that Benny and Adolf don't get along from the get go and Italy not agree with the annexation of Austria; this still happen due to the problem of the war in Abyssinia and the war in Spain, plus the fact that in the end Italy will have to go alone as France and Britain are too timid.
 
Even the Austrians stood a good chance of repelling the German offensive - they would have 106k men + 18k border protection militia vs a German force of 105k men (in 5 1/2 infantry divisions and 1 armored division) + 40k police and SS forces.

More info and a great read on Austrias army and what it faced in 1938 here:
http://digitool.library.mcgill.ca/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=28268&local_base=GEN01-MCG02

Under these conditions, the Germans have ZERO chances of beating the Italian military in the short term. An Italian drive unto Munich is more likely under the circumstances.
 
right but want about the effects of the luftwaffe on mountainous terrain? Certainly the Wehrmacht in 1938 still had the most advanced Close Air Support squadrons in the world.

I doubt the Italian army would be to stand against such bombing sweeps on their fortifications in the event of an invasion.

Just speculation here but my guess is once the Heer can cross over the mountains into the plains of north and south italy its open season for the Panzer corp.
 
The Italians might actually put out a decent performance hear. They have their own Maginot Line built into the alps, were specifically trained to fight a mountain war and the tanks aren't very useful here. This is also likely to lead to a general war because Germany and the SU haven't come to an agreement yet and it wouldn't bein France and Britains interests to let the Germans conquer Italy. When they get throught the mountains, Mussolini and many of his soldiers probably go to Africa and the Germans face guerilla war.
 
right but want about the effects of the luftwaffe on mountainous terrain? Certainly the Wehrmacht in 1938 still had the most advanced Close Air Support squadrons in the world. ...

I'd want to see more evidence. leaving aside other experience in their 'little wars' I've not seen a lot showing much skill developed in the German AF. Then there is the question of how strong or skilled the Italian AF was that year.
 
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