WI Hitler tried to trick Stalin into attacking Poland first?

King Thomas

Banned
What if Hitler had secretly asked Stalin to attack Poland at the same time as him, and then decided to not attack, demand that Stalin get out of Eastern Poland within two days and nights, and if he refused decided to attack him? (the reason given to the West, being to "rescue the Poles from the Soviet Union.") In this timeline he tells his forces not to shoot Poles unless they open fire on German troops, and not to hurt Jews (at least, not in public, the odd secret mini-pogrom might happen). He tells the Polish leaders publicly that he is coming to help them.

Does it work out like Hitler hopes?

Does Stalin withdraw as soon as he is double-crossed, denying Hitler his chance for war, and furious with Nazi Germany?

Do the Poles attack both sides and end up curbstomped like in OTL?

Does Stalin not take the bait and send messages to Hitler saying that he must attack first before the Red Army will move?

Does the West declare war on Hitler anyway?
 
This seems kind of unlikely, although Stalin was taken by surprise by Barbarossa, he was no fool, I seriously doubt that he would have simply attacked Poland at a set time and place just because Hitler wanted to, the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact pretty much guaranteed the Russians the territory they were gonna get in Poland, so attacking Poland according to a German set time table seems kind of unlikely. Also Stalin was a pragmatist, he wanted a war between the western powers to help bolster his position, even though it would make him look week, he would probably not stay in Poland just to spite Hitler, especially if it means drawing France and Britain into the fight on Germany's side.
 
What if Hitler had secretly asked Stalin to attack Poland at the same time as him, and then decided to not attack, demand that Stalin get out of Eastern Poland within two days and nights, and if he refused decided to attack him? (the reason given to the West, being to "rescue the Poles from the Soviet Union.") In this timeline he tells his forces not to shoot Poles unless they open fire on German troops, and not to hurt Jews (at least, not in public, the odd secret mini-pogrom might happen). He tells the Polish leaders publicly that he is coming to help them.

Does it work out like Hitler hopes?

No, because Stalin doesn't fall for it. He says OK, then waits. When he sees Hitler is not invading, he's fine. His actual OTL behavior in September 1939 makes this more than clear.
 
Its clearly to Hitler's favor to try this, and him going for it to avoid an immediate allied DoW might well be plausible. (The UK might back down over Poland if the Soviets are suddenly on the scene)

Stalin can certainly be had, and the actions of the Soviet Union adding Romania and Finland to its list of enemies in Barbarossa might considered a basis for this thing happening.

And Stalin did come close to a shooting war with the UK over Finland.

However, Stalin faces the possibility that Germany might not attack Poland at all, and leave him entirely with the buck. He can not accept this risk, although Germany was able to hoodwink him into purging many of his officers.

Stalin MIGHT miss the finer points of the setup, but he's almost certainly going to refuse the design. He would demand to act second and refuse a joint movement, no matter how it plays out.

The only way Germany can pull this off is by tricking Stalin into thinking Poland has already attacked the Soviet Union. That kind of move, while not ASB entirely given Stalin's Paranoia, looks risky even for the likes of Hitler.
 
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