WI Hitler kept to the Munich agreement?

Sir

Banned
What if Hitler chose to leave the remnants of Czecholovakia independent, and moved on to intimidating Poland? Would the western allies declare war in response to an invasion of Poland if the Munich agreement was still in place? War is probably inevitable, but how does it change the positions of the great powers in Europe?
 
Chamberlain was amazingly naive. How else would you describe someone who actually believed he could trust Adolf Hitler?

If Hitler keeps the Munich agreement and eight or ten months later begins making demands about Danzig and the Corridor Chamberlain probably sees it in the same light as the Sudetenland. An adjustment to the Versailles Treaty meant to return German nationals to Germany.

In OTL Chamberlain only made his sudden about face because he felt personally betrayed by Hitler. It took the occupation of Czechoslovakia to finally open his eyes.

Without this Chamberlain is almost certainly of the same mindset in 1939 as he was in 1938. Germany is only trying to recover territories that are predominately German and that had belonged to either Germany or Austria - Hungary. Germany is not trying to destroy or rule over Poland, but just wants an adjustment of he border. The Munich Agreement would be seen as a success that saved Europe from war. He would want to try and act as a mediator between Germany and Poland.

Without the Brtish guarantee of OTL and unwilling to turn to the USSR for aid the Poles will feel compelled to yield to demands of Hitler as the Czechs did previously. If they refuse Chamberlain's mediation and what he sees as a reasonable compromise Poland will have to fight Germany alone.

I think the key is that as long as Hitler is only looking to recover lands that were predominately German the UK is willing to be reasonable. Things will change as soon as they are seen as conquering lands that are not inhabited by Germans. If Hitler has sense enough to relaize this and be satisfied with restoring Germany to the ranks of a Great Power he can avoid the war and be a seen as a great, if ruthless, statesman; much like Mussolini.

Of curse this is Hitler we're talking about and I can't see him remaining sensible long term.

Sooner or later, maybe 1940 or 41, he makes demands in Poland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, or in Alsace Lorraine that can no longer be judged reasonable. By that point Germany will be much stronger militarily but so will Britain and France. The mindset of the USSR will be open to question.
 

Sir

Banned
Interesting. What if after an agreement over Danzig had been extracted from the Poles, Hitler occupied all of Czechoslovakia? Would that be seen as a discreditation of Hitler's ability to follow treaties, the same way it was OTL, or would it be cause for war?
 
Question ist, what about the german colonies.
Hitler always mentioned, that he wanted these colonies back.

Is Britain willing to let these colonies go?
 
Personally I think that after Austria and Sudetenland there are a couple of territories Germany can get without a war with the UK (and thus France). Those in my opinion are Danzig (and maybe the corridor, although that is pushing it), Memelland and the Germanspeaking parts of Belgium. There is also the possibility of Southern Tirol, but that will end in a war with Italy (but I don't think the UK or France would care). If Hitler is smart and plays his cards right, I think, he can get those without a war with the UK and France. Of course as this is Hitler we are talking about, I doubt he would have. He wanted a war after all. But let's say he is able to convince both France and the UK to annex Danzig (which probably would be the next step), how would Poland react? Would they fight a war over Danzig? I am fairly certain they would fight a war over the corridor, which was not only vital for the Polish economy, but even had a Polish majority.

So, if Poland hands Danzig over without a war, what next? Hitler bullies Belgium and Lithouania into handing over the East cantons and Memelland. How will the UK and France react? France did prevent Belgium handing over the East Cantons a couple of years earlier after all.

If Poland goes to war over Danzig (or the corridor), would the UK and France stay out of it? if so what would happen to Poland after the Germans win that war (which I think they still would, even without Russian help or the Chech resources)? All of it annexed by Germany? A Polish vasal state created out of non traditional German parts of Poland to appease the British and French and prepare for the nex assault? Where would the next assult be? The Soviet Union, the enemy Hitler was preparing to fight all along or would Hitler go after France first and be able to annex Alsace-Lorraine (and Luxemburg when he is busy anyway)?
 
Question ist, what about the german colonies.
Hitler always mentioned, that he wanted these colonies back.

Is Britain willing to let these colonies go?

I thought that was Goerring or Goebbels. In any case, the only ones that Britain can actually return are a small slither of Ghana, a landlocked section of Cameroon or Tangyika. The first two aren't worth the bother, the latter is something Britain wouldn't want to surrender in its entirity. The other colonies were given to the Dominions, France or Japan, who are not going to be receptive, and so Britain may simply refuse to prevent the setting of a precedent that would annoy the Dominions.
 
The big problem is that without Czech, German economy starts falling apart. They would need to accept cuts in arms production and disband a few divisions. Nazis feared this more than war since rising unemployment and/or inflation would signal the failure of their policy. Besides, without significant change of Hitler character and outlook this will be near impossible.
 
Hitler has two problems with keeping out of war.

First, either military spending has to be cut back drastically, or the German economy collapses.

Second, Britain and France (and even the USA, to a certain extent), were rearming and catching up fast. (So, in fact, were a number of the smaller countries). The longer war is put off, the poorer Germany's advantage gets.
 
An interesting scenario but I think it ignores the domestic politics too much. Chamberlain was incredibly naive yes, but is the entirety of the British Government willing to sell Poland and the rest of Europe just to appease Hitler? Churchill's warning will become even more pronounced and popular. After all you still have the Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe rearming at dangerous rates. Likewise the French Premier Daladier will face rumblings as well about continuing to pursue appeasement. Of course it's hard to predict with the benefit of hindsight, but without Hitler making substantial reduction in armaments he looks to be a ruthless dictator taking advantage of incredibly naive opponents.

Another factor is that Germany was facing an economic crisis if it didn't start the war. I'm sure other board members who know more of the matter can contribute here, but my understanding is that Hitler desperately needed plunder to prevent a major crash of the German economy. There's only so much stimulus you can implement before you have to pay the bills (a lesson as relevant today as it was then).
 

Cook

Banned
Hitler always mentioned, that he wanted these colonies back.
Really? Everything I’ve read says that he was completely indifferent to the old Imperial German overseas colonies and saw Germany’s future in Europe alone.
 
As other's have pointed out Hitler couldn't keep the Munich agreement, the bills were coming due and he needed some plunder to keep the Ponzi scheme (i.e. the German economy) going. Czechia was the best candidate being rich and defenceless.
 

MSZ

Banned
Should Germany push against Poland it would probably lead to a second Munich with Danzig annexed to the Reich, a guarantee on the remaining Polish borders and some kind of agreement on a route to East Prussia via Pomeralia (though exterritoriality is quite far fetched). The Poles would fight over Pomeralia, and should that happen France would not watch idly - they wouldn't be happy about it but they cannot allow the Reich to annex all of Poland, and they wouldn't be able to convince the Poles to a compromise - much less the Germans as Hitler would not settle even for 1914 borders. So war would still occur though it might be postponed for a few months - if Hitler got Danzig in March, he would propably wait for a few months before going against a new target which propably would be Czechia. Only after that would the west call "enough" and be willing to go to war - Germany has to breach a treaty guaranteed by Locarno-grade agreements for the West to act.
 

amphibulous

Banned
Chamberlain was amazingly naive. How else would you describe someone who actually believed he could trust Adolf Hitler?

And why on earth do think Chamberlain trusted Hitler? If he did, then why did the British invest in an unprecedented technological effort to build a national radar network? Why all the very expensive Spitfire fighters and the desperate negotiations to try to bring the Russians into a defensive alliance???
 

amphibulous

Banned
An interesting scenario but I think it ignores the domestic politics too much. Chamberlain was incredibly naive yes, but is the entirety of the British Government willing to sell Poland and the rest of Europe just to appease Hitler? Churchill's warning will become even more pronounced and popular.

Again, this is the sort of bs you get when people watch the History Channel too much - and you must have been half asleep. Far from being willing to sell Poland, Chamberlain tried desperately to come up with a defensive alliance for it (which was impossible, as it would have meant letting large numbers of Russian troops into Poland) and then went to war for it. And again, if he "trusted" Hitler, why was he re-arming?
 
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