WI: Hitler had supported China over Japan

Okay let's say that China was more lucky in the beginning of the Second Sino-Japanese War. Maybe they win decisively in the first stage of the Battle of Shanghai coupled with successes in Northern China. And because of how successful Chiang is Hitler chooses to support them in an attempted mediated peace between China and Japan. But Japan sees this as European betrayal like that they felt after WWI and rejects the German mediate peace terms and instead insists on war with China. Because of this Hitler supports China over Japan and maybe even sends them aid. Also to help the plausibility of Hitler supporting China, China never signs a non-aggression pact with the U.S.S.R.
 
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The Navy would probably take over in Japan from the Army. The Navy was more moderate than the Army, and assuming the Chinese expand the war to SE Asia later on we'll still probably see the GEACPS come to being. However Allied influence/pressure will probably mean that it won't be a colonial empire in all but name and more of a network of Japanese satellites instead. Manchukuo will probably be recognized as well.
 
Germany won't be China's only ally, and aid from the Soviet Union would likely continue to play an important role for the Chinese war effort (so much for Hitler's plan for China to support him against the Bolshevik). What would be interesting is the events from September 1939 to May 1941. A Pan-Eurasian "Alliance" of Germany, USSR, and a Victorious China would certainly be daunting to say the least in the eyes of the United Kingdom, perhaps we might see some sort of cooperation between the UK and Japan?

However the situation between the US and Japan is unlikely to change. Simply put, a loss in Mainland China won't erase the fact these two powers are still jockeying for Pacific dominance. The Pacific War may be different depending on the butterflys, but nevertheless will still occur.
 
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