WI Hitler goes through with the initial invasion plans for Czechslovakia

[MRig]

OTL he thought about it and called the Munich conference instead, a decision he later regretted.

Hitler has a moment with a portrait of Frederick the Great in Charlottenberg and is unconvinced by his advisors or the unenthusiastic response of German citizens to war. Germany launches its planned invasion through the Sudetenland, facing in 1938 a strong Czechslovakia backed by the sympathy of the world and the promise of military assistance from the Entente.

What happens?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Hmm, A Czechoslovak war might be tricky, of course the Germans win the Czechoslovaks, but there are different terrain issues than in Poland. France would probably fight defensively though, Britain woult mostly trust the power of the navy. of course they could sign pacts with Romania and Yugoslavia to stop Horthy from joining Hitler. Also Poland is a Joker in the pack, they'll definitely occupy Teschen if Czechoslovakia is in trouble, but they know Germany is after them too, and French and British diplomacy would definitely pressure them. Surprise Polish offensive against the Germans. Would fail, but without a Molotov- Ribbentrop Pact, Stalin would feel threatened by German incursions in Poland and Czechoslovakia, and might intervene to "save" those nations.

 

[anon_user]

The Soviets had an alliance with the Czechs, and were generally trying to make collective security work against the Nazis; it's only after Munich failed and the Allies didn't offer much that Molotov-Ribbentrop went through.

How they'd actually project power, though, would be an issue. Churchill seemed to think that the Romanians could be convinced to allow Soviet troops to pass through their territory, though I'm not sure how well that would've worked in practice.

One thing - the German military might consider staging a coup d'etat against Hitler and making peace, especially if they get bogged down in France (or, worse yet, in Czechoslovakia or Poland).

 

[yourworstnightmare]

The Soviets had an alliance with the Czechs, and were generally trying to make collective security work against the Nazis; it's only after Munich failed and the Allies didn't offer much that Molotov-Ribbentrop went through.

How they'd actually project power, though, would be an issue. Churchill seemed to think that the Romanians could be convinced to allow Soviet troops to pass through their territory, though I'm not sure how well that would've worked in practice.

One thing - the German military might consider staging a coup d'etat against Hitler and making peace, especially if they get bogged down in France (or, worse yet, in Czechoslovakia or Poland).

The USSR marching through Romania could have worked, they just annex Bessarabia while marching. Or if Poland is invaded, or join in, Soviet troops could get access to Czechoslovakia through Poland (and annex Ukrainian and Belarus speaking Eastern Poland). For the Germans to be bogged down, you need Soviet intervention, but without a Molotov- Ribbentrop pact Soviet interventions is actually likely. They don't want Hitler to swallow Poland and Czechoslovakia.

 

[cclittle]

The Invasion

The invasion it's self starts slowley. Due to rough turane the German mechanized forces move slowley. Counter attacks by the Chezs due their share of damage. After a wile Germany gains controal of the air. Glider troops landing behind border forts route out determened defenders. After a mounth Germandy secures victory. This comes at a cost in men and equipement. Other invasions are postponed wile Germany rearms. France, Britian and Russia take notice and start to arm themselves too.

 

[von Adler]

Don't forget that the best and brightest of the Luftwaffe was still developing the Rotten/Schwarm tactic in Spain at the time. The German air force September 1938 is nto what it was in May 1940. They still have many 2xMG biplanes and their monpolanes are few, have weak engines and almost all 2xMGs (Bf 109B). The over 500 fighters of the Czech air force would probably be able to fight for quite some time under these circumstances. I am sure the British and French would sell modern planes too - the Romanians were quite happy to transfer arms to Poland 1939, so I doubt they'll resist for the Czechoslovaks 1938. Most of the arms for Poland did not arrive in time and were sold to Turkey instead - the shipment included Hurricanes MS.406s, artillery ammunition and R-35 tanks.

 

[Eurofed]

OTL he thought about it and called the Munich conference instead, a decision he later regretted.

Hitler has a moment with a portrait of Frederick the Great in Charlottenberg and is unconvinced by his advisors or the unenthusiastic response of German citizens to war. Germany launches its planned invasion through the Sudetenland, facing in 1938 a strong Czechslovakia backed by the sympathy of the world and the promise of military assistance from the Entente.

What happens?

Within a day of giving the order for invasion, Hitler is overthrown by the military coup that had been extensively prepared by anti-Nazi elements of the officer corps for this contingency, and did not go off IOTL because Chamberlain gave its acceptance of Hitler's requests a day or so too soon. The Nazi regime is overthrown by a Valkyrie junta before war can even start, Germany and the Western powers a bit later come to a similar resolution as OTL of the Sudetenland issue when the new German government formuates its sensible irredentist claims in a much more reasonable language, most likely with a request for a plebiscite in the Sudetenland area under international supervision.

The new government leaves rump Czechoslovakia alone, and slows down the pace of rearmament to remedy Nazi harmful overspending. The Western powers are pleased, detente with Germany ensues, and they are quite willing to appease German claims on Poland. Munich II sees Danzig and the Corridor returned to Germany with an extraterritorial zone in and land corridor to Gdynia. The Kaiserreich is restored in Germany. WWII as we know it never occurs. Whether a WWII occurs or not (as opposed to a limited Anglo-Japanese or Soviet-Japanese war), it depends on whether Stalin ever feels overconfident and/or paranoid enough to attack Europe when the modernization and expansion of the Red Army is done in the early-mid-1940s. If he does not, this kind of TL occurs, only with no Phony War, a different settlment in Poland and a different leadership in Germany. If he does, this kind of anti-Soviet WWII occurs. In both cases, the damage wrought by Nazism is optimally prevented with minimal damage to Germany and Europe.

 

[Derek Jackson]

The naval blockade will be much more effective than in OTL. Hitler had effective sources of everything from Stalin 1939-41 and then the ability to loot a whole continent

 

[MRig]

Hmm, A Czechoslovak war might be tricky, of course the Germans win the Czechoslovaks, but there are different terrain issues than in Poland. France would probably fight defensively though, Britain woult mostly trust the power of the navy. of course they could sign pacts with Romania and Yugoslavia to stop Horthy from joining Hitler. Also Poland is a Joker in the pack, they'll definitely occupy Teschen if Czechoslovakia is in trouble, but they know Germany is after them too, and French and British diplomacy would definitely pressure them. Surprise Polish offensive against the Germans. Would fail, but without a Molotov- Ribbentrop Pact, Stalin would feel threatened by German incursions in Poland and Czechoslovakia, and might intervene to "save" those nations.

The Soviets had an alliance with the Czechs, and were generally trying to make collective security work against the Nazis; it's only after Munich failed and the Allies didn't offer much that Molotov-Ribbentrop went through.

How they'd actually project power, though, would be an issue. Churchill seemed to think that the Romanians could be convinced to allow Soviet troops to pass through their territory, though I'm not sure how well that would've worked in practice.

One thing - the German military might consider staging a coup d'etat against Hitler and making peace, especially if they get bogged down in France (or, worse yet, in Czechoslovakia or Poland).

Romania getting jointly leaned on by the Allies and the Sovs is going to be hard to resist. If they do, is Stalin going to respect their sovereignty? The Soviets might see this as an opportunity to grab a puppet state without the Allies getting too up in their business.

The USSR marching through Romania could have worked, they just annex Bessarabia while marching. Or if Poland is invaded, or join in, Soviet troops could get access to Czechoslovakia through Poland (and annex Ukrainian and Belarus speaking Eastern Poland). For the Germans to be bogged down, you need Soviet intervention, but without a Molotov- Ribbentrop pact Soviet interventions is actually likely. They don't want Hitler to swallow Poland and Czechoslovakia.

If Germany is neutralized quickly, Stalin becomes the big bad. "Like Hitler," they'll say, "but competent."

The invasion it's self starts slowley. Due to rough turane the German mechanized forces move slowley. Counter attacks by the Chezs due their share of damage. After a wile Germany gains controal of the air. Glider troops landing behind border forts route out determened defenders. After a mounth Germandy secures victory. This comes at a cost in men and equipement. Other invasions are postponed wile Germany rearms. France, Britian and Russia take notice and start to arm themselves too.

I think they're more likely to join in right there.

Don't forget that the best and brightest of the Luftwaffe was still developing the Rotten/Schwarm tactic in Spain at the time. The German air force September 1938 is nto what it was in May 1940. They still have many 2xMG biplanes and their monpolanes are few, have weak engines and almost all 2xMGs (Bf 109B). The over 500 fighters of the Czech air force would probably be able to fight for quite some time under these circumstances. I am sure the British and French would sell modern planes too - the Romanians were quite happy to transfer arms to Poland 1939, so I doubt they'll resist for the Czechoslovaks 1938. Most of the arms for Poland did not arrive in time and were sold to Turkey instead - the shipment included Hurricanes MS.406s, artillery ammunition and R-35 tanks.

One of the things I love about this earlier WWII is how much messier it would be. Less professional, with doctrines less refined.

Of course, in other, more important ways, OTL is much, much messier.

Within a day of giving the order for invasion, Hitler is overthrown by the military coup that had been extensively prepared by anti-Nazi elements of the officer corps for this contingency, and did not go off IOTL because Chamberlain gave its acceptance of Hitler's requests a day or so too soon. The Nazi regime is overthrown by a Valkyrie junta before war can even start, Germany and the Western powers a bit later come to a similar resolution as OTL of the Sudetenland issue when the new German government formuates its sensible irredentist claims in a much more reasonable language, most likely with a request for a plebiscite in the Sudetenland area under international supervision.

The new government leaves rump Czechoslovakia alone, and slows down the pace of rearmament to remedy Nazi harmful overspending. The Western powers are pleased, detente with Germany ensues, and they are quite willing to appease German claims on Poland. Munich II sees Danzig and the Corridor returned to Germany with an extraterritorial zone in and land corridor to Gdynia. The Kaiserreich is restored in Germany. WWII as we know it never occurs. Whether a WWII occurs or not (as opposed to a limited Anglo-Japanese or Soviet-Japanese war), it depends on whether Stalin ever feels overconfident and/or paranoid enough to attack Europe when the modernization and expansion of the Red Army is done in the early-mid-1940s. If he does not, this kind of TL occurs, only with no Phony War, a different settlment in Poland and a different leadership in Germany. If he does, this kind of anti-Soviet WWII occurs. In both cases, the damage wrought by Nazism is optimally prevented with minimal damage to Germany and Europe.

The naval blockade will be much more effective than in OTL. Hitler had effective sources of everything from Stalin 1939-41 and then the ability to loot a whole continent

It seems to me that this is one of the better PoDs for stopping the bastard. They fight, or avoid, a short bloody war, and we're done with it.

I do find a military coup possible, but not necessarily the rather idealistic scenario Eurofed outlines. The plotters waited until 1944 in OTL, and war has a certain power to invoke loyalty in questioning minds. As OTL they could wait until the war has turned against Germany. As OTL they could fail.

 

[Eurofed]

The plotters waited until 1944 in OTL,

Actually, they did not. There were two (see here and here) assassination attempts to be followed by coup in March 1943 by the military Resistance that only failed out of sheer bad luck, just like in July 1944.

and war has a certain power to invoke loyalty in questioning minds. As OTL they could wait until the war has turned against Germany.

But if Hitler starts the war in 1938, the Wehrmacht was very, very much aware that war would *immediately* turn against Germany, and Hitler was radically overestimating Germany's ability to fight, that's the main reason why in 1938 the coup preparations were so advanced and got such a large following in the officer corps, which even surpassed July 1944. In 1938, Hitler had not yet won many of his political and military victories that defanged the military Resistance during 1940-42.

As OTL they could fail.

Oh, that's quite possible. Hitler historically showed the devil's own luck in avoiding several assassination attempts (in Nov. 1938, Nov. 1939, March 1943, July 1944) by sheer coincidence, that would have prevented or greatly limited the damage wrought by Nazism (and indirectly, Stalinism).

 

[brokenman]

A possible German-Polish Alliance against the Soviets.

Read HT's newest work, The_War_That_Came_Early.

It lingers on what if Hitler invades Czechoslovakia, a year earlier than the OTL WW2.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Nah, Hitler would not ally with Poland, Poland would not ally with Hitler.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

brokenman, Turtledove's fiction is not considered to be historically valid.

Not worth reading in recent years either.

 

[Astrodragon]

Whatever happens, it will not go well for Germany.

the best case is that Frabce and Russia ignore their treaty with CZ (unlikely). In this case, germany loses men and equipment to the fighting, does not get the CZ equipment it got free in 1939, and probably damages a lot of the arms industry as well.

Same applies if France sits on its backside and Russia cant find a way to get ground troops in. However now Germany is blockaded (even without British help the French navy can blockade Germany, while suplies flow into France), and Hitler doesnt have the CZ treasury, so Germany will collapse economically soon. The only chance is to hit France hard and knock them out before this happens. But Germany is weaker now than OTL, Russia cannot be ignored and Britain will come in if France is attacked (or if Germany responds to Frances blockade with submarine warfare, very probably). So we have 1040 with a considerably weaker Germany - quite possibly too weak to take out France.
And Poland is still sitting there with a large, unfriendly army. Guard the fronteir, and the attack on France gets still weaker, ignore it and you may have Polish troops in Berlin. Take out Poland first (as OTL), and you have Russian troops marching in to help the Poles (yes, the Poles dont like the Russians. They like being invaded by Germany a lot less)

Ironically the best outcome for Germany is if a coup topples Hitler and the Nazis. But despite Eurofeds love of all things German, the allied powers are most certainly not going to sit back and give them everything Hitler wanted just because!
See the Sudetenland confirmed CZ - quite possibly with a 'voluntary' removal of the German population. No land from Poland (a corriddoor is a possibility, not immediately, but this was seen at the time as a not-unreasonable requirement). reparation to CZ at least. Forcible separation with Austria, and again restrictions on the German forces (nothing like Versaiiles, but they arent going to let them keep spending the way they've been doing)

Munich was the worst thing Chamberlain ever did.

 

[DirtyCommie]

Sorry to be the black sheep here, but I tend to think the Czechs might actually hold the Germans off. The combination of difficult terrain, a well-trained and -armed army, and likely Entente military support makes Czechoslovakia just powerful enough to hold off Germany until Britain, France, and Poland save the day.

 

[Kelenas]

Holding off the Germans isn't exactly going to be difficult if they're too busy fighting themselves in a military coup/civil war, as Eurofed pointed out more than once.

- Kelenas

 

[anon_user]

France wouldn't declare war unless Britain did, and Britain only didn't declare war because Munich succeeded. Gas masks were being distributed, war preparations were well in hand - quite bluntly, Britain expected a war would come.

Britain and France could consider appeasement over Poland - they weren't particularly fond of the Poles - but wouldn't have turned over the Sudetenland - not even on a day-one coup.

The Soviets would definitely push for more influence in Romania. I remember vaguely developing through a '38 war timeline - one notable highlight was that I thought that Iron Guard types would attack any Soviet troop trains heading for Czechoslovakia and that a civil war would break out over the decision to allow the Soviets passage.
I ended up dropping the idea of a '38 war on the basis that a coup by the German military struck me as the most likely outcome. I suppose I could try to rework it, but I think a stronger Germany (and/or stronger German allies) would be needed for it to be viable - for the German military to think it could have a chance.

 

[Kelenas]

You'd not just need a stronger Germany/German allies, you'd also need significant changes in military or civilian leadership. The reasons why a coup was prepared in '38 was not just because the Generals were concerned about Germany's chances in a renewed war, but also because they - put frankly - despised the Nazis and wanted them gone.

- Kelenas

 

[Eurofed]

Ironically the best outcome for Germany is if a coup topples Hitler and the Nazis. But despite Eurofeds love of all things German, the allied powers are most certainly not going to sit back and give them everything Hitler wanted just because!
See the Sudetenland confirmed CZ - quite possibly with a 'voluntary' removal of the German population. No land from Poland (a corriddoor is a possibility, not immediately, but this was seen at the time as a not-unreasonable requirement). reparation to CZ at least. Forcible separation with Austria, and again restrictions on the German forces (nothing like Versaiiles, but they arent going to let them keep spending the way they've been doing).

If Hitler can somehow dodge getting a bullet in the head when he gives the order to invade (not likely, and it would require a somewhat extensive second PoD to substantially diminish the following of the anti-Nazi clique in the officer corps), the war hence starts, and the Entente crushes Germany, the Sudetenland is surely going to stay Czech, the Corridor Polish, and CZE is going to get reparations. Poland may even be allowed to annex Danzig. And Germany is surely going to get some significant military limitations slapped on (no Versailles leverl, though, Chamberlain would not want to leave a power vacuum in Central Europe, in the light of Soviet rearmament). OTOH, forcible separation of Austria and ethnic cleansing of Sudetenland Germans seems way, way too harsh for a 1938-39 peace. Remind, by late '38 Nazi Germany has not yet done any real atrocity nor attacked any other non-German nation but CZE in the eyes of the world.

 

[Astrodragon]

If Hitler can somehow dodge getting a bullet in the head when he gives the order to invade (not likely, and it would require a somewhat extensive second PoD to substantially diminish the following of the anti-Nazi clique in the officer corps), the war hence starts, and the Entente crushes Germany, the Sudetenland is surely going to stay Czech, the Corridor Polish, and CZE is going to get reparations. Poland may even be allowed to annex Danzig. And Germany is surely going to get some significant military limitations slapped on (no Versailles leverl, though, Chamberlain would not want to leave a power vacuum in Central Europe, in the light of Soviet rearmament). OTOH, forcible separation of Austria and ethnic cleansing of Sudetenland Germans seems way, way too harsh for a 1938-39 peace. Remind, by late '38 Nazi Germany has not yet done any real atrocity nor attacked any other non-German nation but CZE in the eyes of the world.

I think ethnic cleansing is too strong in that, as you say, germany doenst seem THAT bad yet (but still bad - remember the USA had almost declared economic war on the regime after Crystalnacht (or however its spelt..

I'd think a forced referendum in Austria, under the control of the allies - which given that a lot of Austrians didnt like the rather contrived joining, and that Germany has just led them into a war they lost, may very well decide to go back to the separate state.
As for the Sudetenland; I dont see the allies forcing out the German population in the way the Germans did to the Czechs (unless theye did that in the time they were there, in which case it would be considered tit-for-tat). However a 'vo,untary' move of Germans would be quite likley (at this period in time, moving of populations like this wasnt seen as terrible, just unfortunate).

The allies wont want germany too weak, though, as they will still have an eye on Russia. But a Germany, say, roughly as strong as France, with some limitations (like dismantling the West Wall) would probably be considered reasonably safe, as it would be way weaker than France, CZ and the UK (at a minimum). And that sort of force level wouldnt seem to bad to Germany; they would be strong enough to defend themselves.

Whether Poland gets Danzig is probably going to up to how helpfull Poland was