If a Moscow-First strategy is attempted and falls apart as per Nuker's belief (and mine as well - Germany was incredibly lucky to make it that far as they did), it's not hard to believe seeing the Soviets enter Berlin sometime mid-1943. If Army Group Center is nearly annihilated, German morale will take a dive after seeing a repetition of Napoleon (not considering the problems that a Moscow-First strategy will have either - Southwestern Front is still intact with Kirponos, no Vyazma-Bryansk pockets or way smaller ones at that, and perhaps even Odessa is still kicking against the Romanians - who knows). Things like the Lyuban Offensive (if there's a need for it) are very likely to be more successful with AGC needing to be propped up and no German offensives happening. An analog to 2nd Kharkov could happen in the Dnieper against AGS except more successful (whether it involves crossing the Dnieper near the south around Kremenchug or Dnipropetrovsk or breaking out from Kiev is up to your imagination). Either way, the Wehrmacht is mortally wounded from being crushed around Moscow.