WI : Hitler gets killed in April 1932 assasination

NoMommsen

Donor
What if …. Hitler gets killed in April 1932 assasination

Due to a presidential decree public campaign events until and during the easter time were forbidden, so only „closed“ events with invited guests ( but still at locations as Sportpalast maybe ?). Therefore it was a quite short campaigning time.(btw, does anybody has a list of these venets during that time and when and where Hitler apeared ?).

At some moment during this campaigning Hitler gets killed in an assasination.

I think of two possible ways this could have been achieved :

  1. a massive explosion during one of these election events (similar to what Georg Elser did Nov. 1939 only at a location in Berlin, maybe Sportpalast)
  2. a car drive-by with subguns and handgrenades while Hitler leaves the Kaiserhof on his way to one of the election events (similat to what OC did on Rathenau, maybe not only one car but two driving by or similar)
Possible perpetrators :

  1. a communist splinter (or perhaps not soo small splinter ?) group cause there is a quite a possibility in Hitler succeeding over Hindenburg
  2. Members of former OC under Hermann Erhardt to finally knocking out that crazy austrian whimp … cause there is a quite a possibility in Hitler succeeding over Hindenburg (Erhardt just „refounded“ it as „Gefolgschafts e.V.“ in dezember 1931)


What do you think might be its consequences ?
For the Nazi-party
For the goverment at that time
For the further development of germany



Some things I would like you to consider on answersing :
regarding the goverment :

  1. Brüning at that time is still in high favor by Hindenburg and
  2. backed by Wilhelm Groener who had still more power over Hindenburg (who owes him a lot due to the developments during 1918/1919) and the Reichswehr than Schleicher (his „star“ is still just rising wiht the old man, and the Reichswehr generals never really liked Schleicher)
regarding the Nazis :

  1. Himmler and SS are still small and totally dependant on Hitler, a blck drop in the brown ocean
  2. the SD has just been founded and Heydrich is only starting to build it
  3. Gregor Strasser (not the „nationalbolshevistic“ Otto Strasser) controls the party almost completly, what even by Strassers internal opponents was admitted (SA was already the pre-military militia Röhm was always dreaming of beside the party, not anymore really part of it)
  4. Goebbels was just a worsipping appendix of Hitler without much (if any) power inside the party
 

Perkeo

Banned
There will be no Nazi dictatorship and, more likely than not, no dictatorship at all. The ultraright will be too disunited to take power, and once the economy recovers Germany will slowly return to a more or less functional democracy.
 
There will be no Nazi dictatorship and, more likely than not, no dictatorship at all. The ultraright will be too disunited to take power, and once the economy recovers Germany will slowly return to a more or less functional democracy.
The fascists weren't the only ones that wanted to retake lost German areas of Europe.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
thx for answering
There will be no Nazi dictatorship and, more likely than not, no dictatorship at all. The ultraright will be too disunited to take power, and once the economy recovers Germany will slowly return to a more or less functional democracy.
... more less than more more funcional I would assume (when was the Weimar system ever functioning ... in its intended ways ?).

Wouldn't the not so ultrarights (military, DVP, DNVP, Centre Party, civil service, Stahlhelm) recruit whatever remnants would survive the (very likely) upheaval after such an action (as i.e. tried later by Schleicher) and keep them - in a way - "alive" ?

... and push their version of an authorian state ?
(btw : the german people at that moment was VERY keen on getting a political leadership to bring "rest and order" ... and jobs.)
In the middle run, about 1 to 1 1/2 years, even Brüning was already planning/thinking of "overcoming" the "Weimar-System" with an at least authoritarian if not monarchistic(kind of constitutional) regime.
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
thy for answering
The fascists weren't the only ones that wanted to retake lost German areas of Europe.
Yes, that was common property of almost every german politician (beside perhaps the majority of the communists) with assurance of widespread public support : eliminate the "dictate" of Versailles"
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... as an additional question of "details":

what events would take place after the assasination ? ... about the next 3 or 6 month ?
 

Deleted member 1487

Probably a lot of social disorder and violence in the streets as Nazi thugs try and get revenge on perceived enemies for Hitler's death. Probably marshal law would have to be declared until things got under control. Strasser could keep things going, but he would never be Chancellor and with Hitler's death the party would likely fracture and get compromised by the establishment conservatives. The party remains a force in German politics, but in the end some sort of left of center government probably gets in power by the end of 1932. I do not see how Brunig would survive the situation in Germany in 1932 based on his austerity program. Perhaps von Schleicher would be more apt to work with a Strasser led Nazi party to garner support for his Chancellorship?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Brünings plans in autumn 1931, as he discussed them even with Hitler (who outright rejected) :
- Nazi keep on turmoiling (a bit) the internal affairs, esp. the reds,
- but keep a bit lower profile on attacking him and the goverment
- Nazi might also propaganda against his economic plans
- what would make it easier for him to push his agenda about reparations and disarmament conference in geneva
- supporting him on parliamentary elongation of Hindenburgs term of presidency

in exchange for :
- Centre Party-Nazi coalition in Hesse
- Centre Party-Nazi coalition in Prussia (parliamentary election due in april 1932)
- goverment involvement with vice-chancelory and 2 or 3 Nazi in the cabinet - after the Hindenburg elongation
- his own retreat in favor of the Nazis after the reparation buiseness is done

(beside Hitlers rejection of this plans in OTL the "Boxheimer-documents"-affair came across this)

Wouldn't Strasser been an even better candidate for such an arrangement ?
Brüning was in an almost desperate need for some more "rightish" support to keep Hindenburg on line.
 

Perkeo

Banned
The fascists weren't the only ones that wanted to retake lost German areas of Europe.

thy for answering
Yes, that was common property of almost every german politician (beside perhaps the majority of the communists) with assurance of widespread public support : eliminate the "dictate" of Versailles"

So what? The Germans managed the end of the reparations without a Nazi dictatorship let alone a war. Next would have been - as IOTL - the military restrictions. The first sentence of Part V of the TOV gives the perfect loophole:
In order to render possible the initiation of a general limitation of the armaments of all nations, Germany undertakes strictly to observe the military, naval and air clauses which follow.
So the Entente must either disarm to the level of Germany, or Germany will declare all armaments restrictions null and void. AFAIK Hitler also used that excuse.

And as for territory: Austria and Danzig may well join voluntarily, and France and Britain will think twice before they start a war against self-determination.

Eliminating the TOV and starting WWII are two entirely different issues.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
So what? The Germans managed the end of the reparations without a Nazi dictatorship let alone a war. Next would have been - as IOTL - the military restrictions. The first sentence of Part V of the TOV gives the perfect loophole:
So the Entente must either disarm to the level of Germany, or Germany will declare all armaments restrictions null and void. AFAIK Hitler also used that excuse.
... an arguement used right from the beginning of the preliminary conference in 1926 to prepare the "true" conference on disarmament in 1932, yes.

And as for territory: Austria and Danzig may well join voluntarily, and France and Britain will think twice before they start a war against self-determination.
... would have to be seen, how germany would rearm in such a TL (since I doubt, that the Wallies would ever go the way of their disarmament).

Eliminating the TOV and starting WWII are two entirely different issues.
Having eliminated the TOV without a WW II ! Would be a nice achievement for germany, THX :)

(Does anybody said there has to be a WW II ? )
 
(Does anybody said there has to be a WW II ? )

It's likely that there will still be a rise some kind of right-wing fascist party in Germany, and a re-militarization of the country but there probably won't be a WW2, at least not one remotely similar to OTL. Only Hitler had the willingness to take the relevant risks and the personal leadership skills to drag the rest of the German leadership along with him despite their own doubts. You might not even get the OTL Munich Crisis... although you'll probably still get the Austrian anschluss.

You might get a different war years later, when France, Britain, and Russia have reformed and rebuilt their militaries, and Germany is on the downswing of disappointment after the early bloom of fascist glories has worn off and does something rash that the Allies now feel strong enough to punish, but by then the odds would be so strongly and obviously against Germany that the Germans would probably get their faces caved in, assuming the Wehrmacht doesn't launch a coup to avoid the catastrophe.
 

Perkeo

Banned
Having eliminated the TOV without a WW II ! Would be a nice achievement for germany, THX :)

Germany did eliminated the TOV without a war IOTL (and started WWII anyway, but that's another story).

(Does anybody said there has to be a WW II ? )

No there hasn't. You don't even need a spectacular POD. There are many ways of throwing Hitler under a bus or otherwise preventing his seizure of power. As little as Hindenburg being in better health in January 1933 may be enough.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
You don't even need a spectacular POD. There are many ways of throwing Hitler under a bus or otherwise preventing his seizure of power. As little as Hindenburg being in better health in January 1933 may be enough.
But that's not what I am aiming at, better asking about :
just get rid of Hitler


It's the specific situation of a critical situation of foreign politics (discussions about cancellation of the Lausanne conference, dearmament conference just started), economics (Great Depression - no details necessary here) and internal politics (civil war like street fights all over the republic on an almost daily base).
And how this situation develops after the most spectacular assassination of the most spectacular candidate running for THE top job the republic has to offer. And he isn't fully uncontested yet in his own party/movement :
There is Röhm with his Peoples militia, urging for a "revolution of the soldiers" (or more mercenary playing hooligans)
There is the almost almighty party leader Gregor Strasser, the true "ruler" of party affairs after he has build the party to his thoughts.

I would render this a really "interesting time".
Will the 2nd election ballot happen "on time" or will it be postponed or happen at all ?
If, then who might take the place of Hitler ?
Who will "win" the struggle for power in the Nazi party ?
Will there be n "Emergency of state" be declared (due to the SA running wild against itself, the communists and everybody else) ? So that Groener might be put in charge like v. Seeckt 1923 ?
How might the "reds" react ? "Just" defending or trying to stage a counter-counter-revolution ?

And whatever the outcome of this, what will be the reactions of the other nations ?

That's more what I want to ask your opinions about : how might germany (and perhaps europe) look alike after this pandora's box of butterflies breaks apart and they settled after 3 , 4, 5 or 6 months.
 
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