WI: Hitler Doesn't Launch Ardennes Counteroffensive?

What would happen if Hitler in the end decided not to launch the Ardennes Counteroffensive in December 1944, or successfully managed to withdraw with minimal casualties. If the Germans managed to retain their strength, what would they have done with this additional manpower that was not wasted? Would they be sent East? Perhaps Hitler would launch a counteroffensive on the Eastern Front, or use these soldiers to strengthen defensive positions on the Rhine. Would he be more likely to form an Alpine Redoubt with more men under his command?

The war is lost for Hitler already, so I am curious if the war might last a few weeks or months longer. Might Germans have higher morale as the Allies poured into the country?
 
A few weeks, maybe a month. Some of it probably would have been sent east while some of it would have been kept in the west. The final picture, despite being slightly longer and somewhat bloodier, wouldn't have looked that different.
 
Did most of the forces used In the Ardennes offensive not come from the east anyway? Had he not done so he may well have slowed the soviet advance a tad, maybe the war lasts a bit longer - more likely though it does little really to save him.
 
Did most of the forces used In the Ardennes offensive not come from the east anyway? Had he not done so he may well have slowed the soviet advance a tad, maybe the war lasts a bit longer - more likely though it does little really to save him.

Most of the forces used in the Ardennes Offensive had retreated from Normandy and had rested and reinforced during the intervening time. Some of the men and equipment as well as several of the commanders had been transferred from the East, but most of the strength came from fresh drafts within Germany.
 
Sending most of the men and equipment east slows the Russian advance. Germany will still lose but it may alter borders and Germany might surrender before the Battle of Berlin (unlikely though)...
 
I eagerly await citations then, because that contradicts what my own lays out.

No it doesn’t? It says on page 169 that Soviet forces stopped the Germans by establishing a solid defense on the Vali-viz river and then on the next page says: “The German spearheads that had reached the Danube could at any time be cut-off by Soviet divisions from Lake Valence in the north and Simontornya in the south. Recognizing this advantage, Tolbukhin attacked from both directions. Although the Germans destroyed 122 tanks on the first day, they had to abandon many of the occupied territories, with the notable exception of Szekesferharvar.”
 
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No it doesn’t? Your source states on page 176 that Soviet forces stopped the Germans by establishing a solid defense on the Vali-viz river and then on the next pages says: “The German spearheads that had reached the Danube could at any time be cut-off by Soviet divisions from Lake Valence in the north and Simontornya in the south. Recognizing this advantage, Tolbukhin attacked from both directions. Although the Germans destroyed 122 tanks on the first day, they had to abandon many of the occupied territories, with the notable exception of Szekesferharvar.”

It does not say that anywhere on Page 176:

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I should also make it clear the section you are citing is about the breakout attempt from Budapest, not the Konrad Operations.
 
It does not say that anywhere on Page 176:

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I should also make it clear the section you are citing is about the breakout attempt from Budapest, not the Konrad Operations.

Goddammit, I meant page 169. When I was looking at page 170 (where my quote’s from), I misread the “0” as a “6” and that just kinda dialed into my post. Posting on my phone probably didn’t help either.
 
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Goddammit, I meant page 169. When I was looking at page 170 (where my quote’s from), I misread the “0” as a “6” and it just kinda dialed into my post.

Happens to the best of us.

As for the point at hand, the Soviet counter-attack came following the decision on the part of the Germans to shift their attack radius nearly 90 degrees and had been forced to repeatedly disperse their combat power because they lack sufficient infantry support. The need to remove the aforementioned 18th Tank Corps and 133rd Rifle Corps in particular tied down large numbers of Gille's Panzer. Marshal Tolbukhin pulled no punches with his assessment of the situation.
 
Happens to the best of us.

As for the point at hand, the Soviet counter-attack came following the decision on the part of the Germans to shift their attack radius nearly 90 degrees and had been forced to repeatedly disperse their combat power because they lack sufficient infantry support. The need to remove the aforementioned 18th Tank Corps and 133rd Rifle Corps in particular tied down large numbers of Gille's Panzer. Marshal Tolbukhin pulled no punches with his assessment of the situation.

Your link sends me to the index pages. In any case, the Germans had been lacking sufficient infantry since the end of 1942. The book flatly states on page 167 that the Konrad could only have succeeded if it was a rescue mission but, given that it was intended to relieve the city, the best outcome would have just seen Budapest re-encircled in short order.
 
Your link sends me to the index pages.

Re-link, but in case this fails again:

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In any case, the Germans had been lacking sufficient infantry since the end of 1942.

And? We're dealing with an alternate history wherein the Ardennes is not launched so infantry slated for that is available elsewhere.

The book flatly states on page 167 that the Konrad could only have succeeded if it was a rescue mission but, given that it was intended to relieve the city, the best outcome would have just seen Budapest re-encircled in short order.

Okay, for one, it doesn't flat out say that all:

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Quite a bit of nuance there. Further, I should note this refers to Konrad II, not Konrad III which is what the above citations are about.
 

Apparently the preview won’t let me see anything from page 19 to 164.

I’m not seeing anything that contradicts the idea that the Soviets would simply cut the corridor off again in short order. Certainly nothing that’d keep the Soviets out of Austria and Vienna all the way well into April. Even if the Germans successfully eliminate all the bridgeheads south of Budapest (and that’d require them to aim their offensive to do so instead of relieving Budapest, which isn’t happening IATL, so the Soviets would at least keep the swathe of territory south of Simontornya), the Soviets would still be able to attack the corridor from the northwest without having to recross the Danube.

We're dealing with an alternate history wherein the Ardennes is not launched so infantry slated for that is available elsewhere.

And the fact German infantry has been insufficient to contain Soviet armored formations even in times when it had been much stronger then those sent into the Ardennes suggests that whatever portions (keeping in mind that the bulk of the Ardennes infantry would still be needed in the West just to hold the line) get sent to Hungary would still likely be insufficient to contain a Soviet tank corps. If German Panzer Forces couldn’t cope with the task, then expecting German infantry forces to do better is very much the sort of thinking that was rampant in the Fuhrerbunker in 1945.

Okay, for one, it doesn't flat out say that all:

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Quite a bit of nuance there. Further, I should note this refers to Konrad II, not Konrad III which is what the above citations are about.

Yes it does flat out say that. Anyone looking at that second paragraph would be able to see that. It even says the German officers involved in the operation themselves acknowledged they wouldn’t have been able to hold a corridor open for any longer then the time it would take for the forces in the city to escape, hence why they interpreted the operation in those terms instead of the terms that Hitler did (that is, the real terms of the operation). And I don’t see why this would suddenly stop being the case for Konrad-III.
 
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There was a attempt, from January to move the 5th Pz Army east. The units that tried to move we're scattered along the way as the transportation system collapsed. They were consumed piecemeal as the Allied armies over an Germany.
 
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