WI Hitler does not help Mussolini

What if Hitler had basically refused to help the Italians out when they ran into trouble in the Balkans and North Africa and decided to divert all the resources used in these campaigns to the Eastern Front?
 
The Greeks could probably not oust the Italians out of Albania in 1941 without British help. The Italian forces in Albania were simply too big at that point and the latest Greek offensives were successfull, however had a heavy death toll on the Greek side too.
Perhaps if the Greeks scratched all their forces together (including those guarding the Bulgarian front) they may stand a chance to achieve a breakthrough, but I don't see any way they would make such a move.
Therefore in Albania you probably have a stalemate, until British troops arrive. Thereafter, the Albanians are screwed. The British will use aircraft and ships to shut down their last ports in Albania, cutting the Italians off. We may also see a big clash of the Royal and Italian Navy in the Adriatic Sea.
In North Africa things will pretty much happen like in OTL until the end of 1941.
Since no German troops will come to Africa, the British will probably be able to sweep Africa clear of the Italians sometime in 1942.
 

Cook

Banned
The Greeks could probably not oust the Italians out of Albania in 1941 without British help. The Italian forces in Albania were simply too big at that point and the latest Greek offensives were successfull, however had a heavy death toll on the Greek side too.

Really?
The Greeks successfully pushed the Italian Army back into Northern Albania and occupied half of the country.
 

Markus

Banned
Really?
The Greeks successfully pushed the Italian Army back into Northern Albania and occupied half of the country.

That was before the massive build-up of troops MUC refers to. By the time the axis offensive defeated them the Greeks were hanging in the ropes anyway. The war had strained their economy to the point of collapse.
 

Cook

Banned
That was before the massive build-up of troops MUC refers to. By the time the axis offensive defeated them the Greeks were hanging in the ropes anyway. The war had strained their economy to the point of collapse.



Prior to the German intervention the Italians launched a counter-attack on the Greeks on March 9, 1941, they called it off after two weeks having failed to gain any ground. And the British were by that time providing assistance.
Without German intervention there was a very good chance that the Greeks would have gained all of Albania.
 
Prior to the German intervention the Italians launched a counter-attack on the Greeks on March 9, 1941, they called it off after two weeks having failed to gain any ground. And the British were by that time providing assistance.
Without German intervention there was a very good chance that the Greeks would have gained all of Albania.

Italy is screwed without German help at this point. My question is: what happens next? Italy would be losing Libya, Ethiopia and Albania all at the same time. Italy folded in 1943 along similar lines--with the threat of invasion. The UK isn't quite at that point here, but the Italians have been completely humiliated.

Churchill was looking for a negotiated peace with Italy before committing to unconditional surrender later on. Mussolini being sacked by the King and a new Prime Minister placed in power leading to a negotiated peace is possible, perhaps even likely.

It will greatly complicate the political situation post-war to do this, but during the actual fighting I suspect a chastened Italy to be left only with gains at French expense, while losing Ethiopia and Libya.

Would Hitler accept Italy pulling itself out of the war? This early on, no German troops are on the line and Hitler had previously accepted Italy staying out after Danzig. In addition, invading Italy would essentially forfeit Barbarossa as well...

I think Italy leaves the war, humiliated but still dangerous. Italian Opportunism remains in the wings, and I'm not sure how it will lean as WWII continues. Germany strikes the Soviets with extra forces, and this might push them closer to a tipping point. The UK, on the other hand, has extra forces to deploy in the Pacific to deter Japan--a situation that may well stop the Pacific War from happening entirely.

The Direction of the war is therefore up in the air.
 
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