WI Hitler does not annex Czechoslovakia

Suppose someone manages to convince Hitler's warped mind that annexing the rest of Czechoslovakia is not a good idea and that making it a puppet state is better. What effects on the future would this have (most notably Poland and WW2)?
 
Suppose someone manages to convince Hitler's warped mind that annexing the rest of Czechoslovakia is not a good idea and that making it a puppet state is better. What effects on the future would this have (most notably Poland and WW2)?

I don't think Hacha would accept being puppetized. However if Hitler can be convinced not to annex Czechoslovakia he's obiously gone a lot more sane. Germany peacefully annexing the Danzig Corridor peacfully is still pretty unlikely though. This would make an interesting war especially if Czechoslovakia is not a puppet.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Suppose someone manages to convince Hitler's warped mind that annexing the rest of Czechoslovakia is not a good idea and that making it a puppet state is better. What effects on the future would this have (most notably Poland and WW2)?

Assuming the PoD makes the necessary changes in Hitler's mindset, it would butterfly away WWII as we know it. No invasion of Czechoslovakia means the British government not losing faith into appeasement, and giving no military guarantee to Poland when the Danzig crisis turns up. Either Poland is forced to give up Danzig, the Corridor, and Upper Silesia peacefully in the Munich II Conference, or it is left alone to fight Germany and the inevitable Soviet backstabbing by Britain and France.
 

Deleted member 1487

It means better relations with the West, which could have some impact on the discussions with the Polish. But don't forget, Poland was a dictatorship themselves and wasn't in the mood to negotiate over that strip of coastal land. What it means materially is the Germany doesn't have the Czech tanks to equip their panzer divisions, which leaves them at a distinct disadvantage. Even a puppetized Czech Republic is not going to just give up those tanks. Germany also has a budget deficit that was covered by Czech gold, which could very well hurt the rearmament process. Borrowing was getting close to tapped out and the gold obtained from Austria was nearing an end. Even getting the Polish corridor without a fight means Germany has to cut spending radically, which means cutting the army down in size, something Hitler is going to hate to do. But it will be necessary and wise, as it would give Germany everything that she could want for the time being and save the nation and the world the destruction of war.

Maybe the army steps in finally and prevents Hitler from pushing them over the edge, and the Poles see some reason in sharing the Corridor with Germany. This de-claws Hitler, but leaves him as one of the greatest statesmen (which wont AHers like us from harping on his anti-semitism). Basically, it could avoid the war (for the moment), if Hitler doesn't take the Czechs. The republic is essentially vassalized anyway, as they hate just about everyone around them and Germany controls the nation's access to the outside world. Poland was not exactly going to be helping the Czechs, as they took their cut at Munich.

The POD is very important here. If the army steps in finally, then there probably isn't a war at all, as they won't let him declare war with Poland either.

If Hitler just changes his mind, then things are different. Poland still results in war, though maybe not immediately. The Czechs get occupied pretty quickly or even attack Germany. Germany is short of tanks and 1939-40 go very differently.

All in all, two different options that radically change the course of history.
 

Deleted member 1487

Assuming the PoD makes the necessary changes in Hitler's mindset, it would butterfly away WWII as we know it. No invasion of Czechoslovakia means the British government not losing faith into appeasement, and giving no military guarantee to Poland when the Danzig crisis turns up. Either Poland is forced to give up Danzig, the Corridor, and Upper Silesia peacefully in the Munich II Conference, or it is left alone to fight Germany and the inevitable Soviet backstabbing by Britain and France.


Not really, they might just wait it out if Hitler invades Poland instead of the Czech lands. Any claims at all after Munich are going to result in a sterner Allied attitude toward Germany. By honoring the agreement not to go after the Czechs, Hitler is viewed as trustworthy, but having a go at Poland, even just the negotiation process, will have a much different effect than just another Munich.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I don't think Hacha would accept being puppetized. However if Hitler can be convinced not to annex Czechoslovakia he's obiously gone a lot more sane. Germany peacefully annexing the Danzig Corridor peacfully is still pretty unlikely though. This would make an interesting war especially if Czechoslovakia is not a puppet.

Czechoslovakia would not intervene on the side of Poland unless its government has got a suicidal urge, the Wehrmacht would be in Prague in a few hours and Hitler would have a 100% legitimate excuse to annex the country. As for puppetization, it may easily happen through slow and subtle economic pressure. Germany controlled all the really good trade routes out of Czechoslovakia, the other ones were through German vassals and/or folks that did not love CS at all (Hungary, Poland). They only had an alternative route with a friendly country (Romania) but logistically it was very poor.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Not really, they might just wait it out if Hitler invades Poland instead of the Czech lands. Any claims at all after Munich are going to result in a sterner Allied attitude toward Germany. By honoring the agreement not to go after the Czechs, Hitler is viewed as trustworthy, but having a go at Poland, even just the negotiation process, will have a much different effect than just another Munich.

It depends on which claims Germany makes on Poland. Western public opinion (especially the British, that always were rather skeptical on 1919-21 Polish borders since the start) had been expecting for a couple decades that Germany was going to ask Danzig, the Corridor, and Upper Silesia back sooner or later, it would be seen as nothing outrageous. Even if Germany wins a limited war with Poland, the Western Powers are going not to bother IF Hitler just claims the 1914 borders and makes the rest of Poland into a puppet. If he makes Poland a colony like OTL, they most likely go to war. Basically, the very most that Britain and France were willing to concede Germany in the West was its national & historical claims (Austria, Sudetenland, the Corridor & Upper Silesia peacefull, Posen in case of a war). Any more German expansion in Czechia and Poland was bound to be peaceful economic-political influence, if it happens militarly, it means war with the West.
 
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