WI: Hitler dies at the height of Barbarossa?

But OTL USA didnt join the war.

Well, it didn't declare war. "Joining" the war, however, is certainly an appropriate definition for the exchange of torpedoes between the US Navy and the Kriegsmarine well before December 1941. The occupation of Iceland also was a flagrant casus belli, an act of hostility against the enemies of Britain. The Odenwald case is so funny that it is often overlooked, but it's the sort of thing which the USA themselves deemed an act of war back in 1812.

Those events do not amount to a declaration of war, OK, but they are very clear indications of where the US Administration was headed for 1942.
 
This is likely what a German news article would say, whether it was an accident or assassination. The government would make it look like enemy aggression. (I am an amateur at writing news articles. This is very short as well.)

Berlin Post

August 12th, 1941

KURT KLEIN – Late last night, Fuhrer Adolf Hitler was brutally murdered in his Munich villa. A large fire was started by a Soviet spy, who has not yet been caught. 22 people died, including the Fuhrer and his companion, Eva Braun.

At 11 pm, the fire was spotted by a local businessman. By the time guards arrived, it was out of control. Only five people escaped alive.

Locals reported seeing a young man fleeing from the house a short time before the fire became apparent. He was later identified to be a Russian spy.

Heinrich Himmler has been put in control of the Reich until a new Fuhrer is chosen. 'I am very sorry for the Fuhrer. This aggression from the Soviets will be countered,' he said.

On August 20th, a state funeral will be held.
 
This is likely what a German news article would say, whether it was an accident or assassination. The government would make it look like enemy aggression. (I am an amateur at writing news articles. This is very short as well.)

Berlin Post

August 12th, 1941

KURT KLEIN – Late last night, Fuhrer Adolf Hitler was brutally murdered in his Munich villa. A large fire was started by a Soviet spy, who has not yet been caught. 22 people died, including the Fuhrer and his companion, Eva Braun.

At 11 pm, the fire was spotted by a local businessman. By the time guards arrived, it was out of control. Only five people escaped alive.

Locals reported seeing a young man fleeing from the house a short time before the fire became apparent. He was later identified to be a Russian spy.

Heinrich Himmler has been put in control of the Reich until a new Fuhrer is chosen. 'I am very sorry for the Fuhrer. This aggression from the Soviets will be countered,' he said.

On August 20th, a state funeral will be held.
Sounds too much like a modern news report.
 
As I said, I am an ametuer. I don't know much of the style of reporting then, and I was aiming to get across the information that would be released to the public.
I hear ya, was trying to give some constructive criticism, not being critical for critical sake. Maybe if you googgled newspaper headlines from WWII, you'd get a better take on it.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Interesting thread with all the usual dead horses beaten up, but right now I go to Germany to hunt Buck and Wildboar - I will return :)
 
Napoleon took Moscow too, and look at the good it did him. No, Moscow can be left to rot, while there is significant resistance around Kiev that absolutely needs to be conquered.

Um, no. Japan is not going to attack Russia, because they don't actually have what Japan needs, namely, oil, plus they're not acting aggressively towards the Japanese.

Them and what army? Turkey's transport network isn't up to much at this point, and the Axis isn't doing so good in North Africa, so I'm failing to see either either motive or method to that declaration. Plus most of the top people are old enough to remember the problems faced by the Ottomans in ruling over other cultures, so they'll know it's not worth the trouble.

Well, except for the millions of tons of Lend Lease.

First, I agree that the last chance to kill Hitler that would have a deep impact would be Elser`s Bierhalle bombing on 08.11.1939. or even better, Maurice Bavaud`s attemp in 1938. would be even more preferable, after Sudetenanscluss.
However, it is a fact that original german plans were for conquest of Moscow and that they were running ahead of schedule. Untill Adolph screwed the pooch with diverting units for Ukraine. There was a reason why Wermacht let Soviets to withdraw. Stalin was ordering them to fight to the last. When your goal is to seize the land, you want to avoid delays and unnecessary losses. Cities can be left incircled, but armies are to dangerous. Hitler slowed down Wermacht for month and a half, during which Moscow was very badly defended. Stalin and STAVKA believed that city was lost, that they should evacuate. It was Zhukov that promised that city shall not fall. Many units were just mobilised students and civilians. Also, there is high probability that fall of Moscow, while militarily marginal, if evacuated, would be swing that would turn Japan go north (USSR) instead of east (USA). There was plenty of resources in Siberia and Imperial Japanese Army wanted them. In April Japan decided to make peace tretay with USSR. Before that, they considered USSR as their main enemy.
But Navy had bigger influence in government. If started, Japanese would either conquer Far east or they would tied up siberian Red army from defending Moscow and Stalingrad, with result being soviet defeat. Also, why it is often mentioned, USA embargo was not that big immediate threat, that Japan could have bought oil from Dutch East Indies, they had enough oil during the war in OTL, so i do not believe that this would change.

In August 1941, German forces captured Smolensk, an important stronghold on the road to Moscow.[13] At this stage, although Moscow was vulnerable, an offensive against the city would have exposed the German flanks. In part to address these risks, in part to attempt to secure Ukraine's food and mineral resources,[14] Hitler ordered the attack to turn north and south and eliminate Soviet forces at Leningrad and Kiev.[15] This delayed the German advance on Moscow.[15] When that advance resumed on 2 October 1941, German forces had been weakened, while the Soviets had raised new forces for the defence of the city.[15]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Moscow

Also there is
http://nationalinterest.org/feature...-ii-what-if-japan-attacks-russia-16901?page=2

Turkey joining Axis, after the fall of Moscow and Japan entering the war ? Pritty probable. Roads certanly were better in 1940 than in 1915.
About Turkey`s position on war there are several less known facts:
In June 1940 with France's defeat, İnönü abandoned his pro-Allied neutrality as he became convinced that Germany was going to win the war, and as such, Papen's influence in Ankara dramatically increased.[289] On 28 June 1940, Papen reported to Ribbentrop that "The game has been won".[290]

In July 1940, the Germans published documents captured from the Quai d'Orsay showing that İnönü was aware of Operation Pike, the Anglo-French plan in the winter of 1939-40 to bomb the Soviet oil fields in the Caucasus, which seriously strained Soviet-Turkish relations, and as intended drove the Turks to look to Germany as a counterweight

In May 1941 when the Germans dispatched an expeditionary force to Iraq to fight against the British as the Iraqis had joined the war on the Axis side, İnönü refused Papen's request that the German forces be allowed transit rights to Iraq across Turkey.[298] Papen had offered the Turks parts of Bulgaria, Greece, Iraq and Syria in exchange for exchange for transit rights to Iraq, an offer that led to a draft treaty according to German records while the Turks denied having signed such a treaty.[299] The Auswärtige Amt's records state that the treaty was aborted shortly after being signed when the Turks become frightened as the British swiftly gained the upper hand over the Iraqis.
In August 1941, Papen arranged for Nuri Pasha, the younger brother of Enver Pasha, together with several Pan-Turkic leaders to visit Berlin in a semi-official visit, where the Turks asked for German support for Turkey to annex the Caucasus, Soviet Central Asia and the Chinese province of Xinjiang in exchange for attacking the Soviet Union, a demand that Germans dismissed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_von_Papen#Second_World_War

Turks were playing both sides against the middle.

And about Land Lease, a million tractors, tanks, plaines and food while important, do not win war by themselves. Soldiers do. Also, how would it come to USSSR with Vladivostok in japanese hands ? Cape of Good Hope and Iran ?

My point is , we were lucky, and nazis were incompetent, both diplomaticly and strategicly.
 
When your goal is to seize the land, you want to avoid delays and unnecessary losses. Cities can be left incircled, but armies are to dangerous.
Hey, guess what was around Kiev. That's right an army.

But Navy had bigger influence in government. If started, Japanese would either conquer Far east or they would tied up siberian Red army from defending Moscow and Stalingrad, with result being soviet defeat.
Except they'd had their asses handed to them two years earlier, and the Soviets didn't have what they wanted. Ergo, attacking the soviets was, to the Japanese, a waste of time. Oh the army made some points, but they were also tied up in China.

Also, why it is often mentioned, USA embargo was not thatbig immediate threat. but Japan could have buy oil from Dutch East Indies, they had enough oil during the war in OTL, so i do not believe that this would change.
They were rapidly running out of cash to buy oil with.Oh, and the Embargo was by everyone, and included iron-ore and steel as well as oil.

Turkey joining Axis, afterfal of Moscow and Japan entering the war ? Pritty probable. Roads certanly were better in 1940 than in 1915.
But still not very good.

And about Land Lease, a million tractors, tanks, plaines and food while important, do not win war by themselves. Soldiers do. Also, how would it come to USSSR with Vladivostok in japanese hands ? Cape of Good Hope and Iran ?
Japan won't invade because they're already beaten in their own mind.

My point is , we were lucky, and nazis were incompetent, both diplomaticly and strategicly.
Yes, but if they hadn't been they would have started the bloody war in the first place.
 

The problem is that Wikipedia is citing Guderian there. And Guderian was wrong: the route to Moscow was already heavily defended by the time Smolensk fell by multiple defense lines of Soviet armies. Indeed, these forces were so strong that by the end of August they were able to attempt a major counter-offensive that threw the Germans back in a few places.

Your post basically reiterates a number of myths based on self-serving German memoirs that have been debunked in historical academia over the last 30-40 years thanks to greater access to both OKH and STAVKA primary sources following the collapse of the Soviet Union. You really need to read some post-Cold War scholarship. I'd recommend David Stahel's series on Germany's 1941 campaigns and/or David Glantz's works.

What was the estimate they made, exactly?

That unless major Soviet resistance had been broken before hand, the German strain of fighting in an advance on Moscow would cause the logistical collapse around 3/4ths of the way there... which is pretty much what happened.
 
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However, it is a fact that original german plans were for conquest of Moscow

The conquest of Moscow was foreseen to take place after the conquest of Leningrad in the North, and reaching the Donetsk basin in the South, and after having achieved the primary objective of destroying the Red Army. That's really the basics, read Directive 21.

and that they were running ahead of schedule.

Already by the end of July, the Germans were behind schedule, had realized they had grossly underestimated the Soviet forces they were facing, and had run out of logistical steam.

Untill Adolph screwed the pooch with diverting units for Ukraine. There was a reason why Wermacht let Soviets to withdraw.

Yeah, that they had to slow down. They weren't being supplied with all the fuel they needed to keep up the same speed of the first month of operations. They simply did not have the trucks. Nor the trains. nor the damn rail lines.
The story about Hitler ruining the good plans of the clever German generals is a recurring theme - in the memoirs of those same German generals. Wonder why.

Given these wrong premises, the rest of your speculations are no worthier.


Yes. Why not? You seem unaware that that was exactly one of the Lend-Lease routes to the Soviet Union. Look it up.
 
The conquest of Moscow was foreseen to take place after the conquest of Leningrad in the North, and reaching the Donetsk basin in the South, and after having achieved the primary objective of destroying the Red Army. That's really the basics, read Directive 21.



Already by the end of July, the Germans were behind schedule, had realized they had grossly underestimated the Soviet forces they were facing, and had run out of logistical steam.



Yeah, that they had to slow down. They weren't being supplied with all the fuel they needed to keep up the same speed of the first month of operations. They simply did not have the trucks. Nor the trains. nor the damn rail lines.
The story about Hitler ruining the good plans of the clever German generals is a recurring theme - in the memoirs of those same German generals. Wonder why.

Given these wrong premises, the rest of your speculations are no worthier.

Yes. Why not? You seem unaware that that was exactly one of the Lend-Lease routes to the Soviet Union. Look it up.

I am fully aware that Iran was one of supply routes. One of ! Not the only one.
Also, everything depends on who controls North Africa. There is a big difference in airplane route Marocco-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Iran or sending the stuff around South Africa. We are talking about much longer supply routes and even more weakend USSR.
Also,it seems that you are pritty selective about historical sources. Where are your proofs for a massive conspiracy of german generals and war historians ? Why would they lie ? You are just name calling, what makes a balanced debate impossible. You can`t have your cake and eat it too.

You claim that Red army stopped german advance in july 1941. ? That is not correct. It was "rasputitza", three feet deep mud that slowed them down. And when land froze, they continued advancing. I am not claiming that fall of Moscow somehow makes Soviets surrender. However, it was crucial for moral, as a transport hub, and taking it was best chance for negotiated settlement. And there was a debate in Japan will they or wont they join war. If as you claim, they were already defetaed i 1941, than why did they fight for four more years. This sounds ridiculous. American losses in WW2 were miniscule compared to soviet, german or japanese. Waging a war against Axis forces without "aid" of USSR would probably mean no invasion of Europe. Period. A negotiated peace looked likely. Because nobody but Americans did know about THE BOMB. That was a game changer.

In this scenario, if Hitler is dead, Generalplan Ost is gone as well. Instead of german colonies, there would be german puppets statelets in eastern europe, maybe even in Russia. Some germans even lobbied for Grand Duke Vladimir Kirillovich Romanov to reclaim throne.
But in June 26, 1941, he issued this statement: "In this grave hour, when Germany and almost all the nations of Europe have declared a crusade against Communism and Bolshevism, which has enslaved and oppressed the people of Russia for twenty-four years, I turn to all the faithful and loyal sons of our Homeland with this appeal: Do what you can, to the best of your ability, to bring down the Bolshevik regime and to liberate our Homeland from the terrible yoke of Communism."

Wermacht wanted to cooperate with Ukrainians and baltic peoples, and even with Russian Liberation Army (Vlasov) which could have become a real battle force.
With Hitler dead, everything is different.

Also one major plot point. If you want the most successfull Barbarosa, then it would most certainly mean that it has to start as planned on May 15, not June 22. That delay, because of balkan campagne, was disasterious.
 
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I am fully aware that Iran was one of supply routes. One of ! Not the only one.
Also, everything depends on who controls North Africa. There is a big difference in airplane route Marocco-Egypt-Saudi Arabia-Iran or sending the stuff around South Africa. We are talking about much longer supply routes and even more weakend USSR.

Sending stuff around the Cape is exactly what was done. That route was what defeated the Axis in Eastern and North Africa, too, and contained and finnaly pushed back the Japanese in the Burmese theater, too.

Also,it seems that you are pritty selective about historical sources. Where are your proofs for a massive conspiracy of german generals and war historians ? Why would they lie ?

Because nobody looks bad in his memoirs. If you need a source and proof for that age-old principle, I'm afraid you'll have to look it up for yourself.

You claim that Red army stopped german advance in july 1941. ?

Can you quote my exact words amounting to that?
No, you can't, because that's not what I wrote.
What I wrote, and I dislike wasting my time repeating what was pretty clear the first time around, is that what stopped the Germans at the end of July was their own goddam logistics.
Naturally by the end of the following month there also was the small detail that the Germans had already committed all of the divisions they had assigned to the Eastern Front save three. That was their strategic reserve for the East. Meanwhile, the Soviets were mobilizing some 160 divisions in addition to those that the Germans had already met and largely destroyed. Naturally, the Germans had not dreamed to forecast that the Soviets could mobilize that sort of force, just like they had not had the slightest idea that the Soviets could field things like the T-34 and KV-1.
So I'll admit that one could say the Soviets would cooperate, in the long run, with the abysmal state of German logistics, German poor intelligence, and German sloppy planning.
 
...
Can you quote my exact words amounting to that?
No, you can't, because that's not what I wrote.
What I wrote, and I dislike wasting my time repeating what was pretty clear the first time around, is that what stopped the Germans at the end of July was their own goddam logistics.

As you wish. Germans "stopped at the end of July" ? Change course, yes. Slowed down, yes. Stopped, no.
"Already by the end of July, the Germans were behind schedule, had realized they had grossly underestimated the Soviet forces they were facing, and had run out of logistical steam.
Yeah, that they had to slow down. They weren't being supplied with all the fuel they needed to keep up the same speed of the first month of operations. They simply did not have the trucks. Nor the trains. nor the damn rail lines"
Were those trucks, trains and rail lines created in august-september ? Because, germans continued advancing in winter 1941 all the way through 1942. !
Were there problems with german logistics ? Absolutely. What slowed down germans was an ukrainian army which could not withdraw when it was surrounded. Their sacrifice bought time for Russia to prepare those newly created divisions you talk about. Many soviet generals have said that "Battle of Moscow was won at Kiev".

Naturally by the end of the following month there also was the small detail that the Germans had already committed all of the divisions they had assigned to the Eastern Front save three. That was their strategic reserve for the East.
Big problem you are adressing about lack of german reserves is exactly of Hitler`s making. Originally Oberkomanndo counted on troops which have benn redeployed in Yugoslavia and Greece. Ordering those invasions Hitler put Wermacht in unwinnable situation. With those troops, german forces would have full reserves. Without them, they were f...ed.
 
Your post basically reiterates a number of myths based on self-serving German memoirs that have been debunked in historical academia over the last 30-40 years thanks to greater access to both OKH and STAVKA primary sources following the collapse of the Soviet Union. You really need to read some post-Cold War scholarship. I'd recommend David Stahel's series on Germany's 1941 campaigns and/or David Glantz's works.

I can't add a lot to this. I just thought that someone around here might need to see this reiterated.
 

ATP45

Banned
Lets say he dies between the encirclement and destruction of the Soviet Southwestern front and the launch of Operation Typhoon?


What would be the effects if he were assassinated vs a "natural" death i.e. A heart attack, stroke, particularly violent fall down the stairs, car crash etc.?

Who would Hitler's successor be (if there were even a single clear cut successor), and what would he do? Sue for peace, continue the war? Please discuss
In OTL,germany lost for 4 reasons - 1.Poles cracked Enigma and gave it to Brits in 1939.2.Soviet numbers.3.USA industry 4.Adolf the idiot.If stop killing prisoners and gave kolchoz to peasants,they win in 1941.If they still kill prisoners but not declare war on USA,then they still have good fighting chance. Evenwith USA as opponents,without Hitler germans have still some very small chance.
 
Big problem you are adressing about lack of german reserves is exactly of Hitler`s making. Originally Oberkomanndo counted on troops which have benn redeployed in Yugoslavia and Greece. Ordering those invasions Hitler put Wermacht in unwinnable situation. With those troops, german forces would have full reserves. Without them, they were f...ed.

How many divisions were stationed in the Balkans? 10 at most? Another 3 or 4 in North Africa? Furthermore, how many of these divisions were first rate line divisions versus second and third rate garrison divisions? I seriously doubt that this meager force could have stopped the Soviet winter counteroffensive.
 

hammo1j

Donor
How would you destroy the British forces in Africa? or destroy bomber command? The Battle of Britain was over by this point and I doubt the Germans would have better performance in the Desert than OTL
Thanks for taking the time to comment.

IMHO: The Germans would have sufficient force freed up from the eastern front to Reinforce the Afrika Corps and beef up their Night Fighter Defences.
 
In OTL,germany lost for 4 reasons - ... If stop killing prisoners and gave kolchoz to peasants,they win in 1941.

Yawn. Old red herring.

If they don't plunder the harvest of 1941, and also steal from the farmers their horses and carts, the Germans can't feed their army in the Soviet Union. It was living off the land. If they don't feed it locally, they have to send thousands of tons of food from Germany which means angry German civilians back home, and as many thousands of fuel and ammo not reaching the frontlines.

Ditto for the POWs. 1941 was a bad year for Soviet POWs, yes, but not because the Germans were actively shooting or gassing them (well, to the exception of Jewish soldiers and identified Communist party members); they were just letting them starve. If the Germans attempt to give half-decent food to the POWs in 1941, that's many additional thousand tons of food shortage. The Germans that year captured Soviet POWs in the hundreds of thousands.

In short, these two choices in 1941 make it sure that the Germans do not reach the OTL frontline in December 1941; they're behind OTL, let alone "winning in 1941".
 
How many divisions were stationed in the Balkans? 10 at most?

7, of which 2 were decent mountain infantry.
4 were of the "700" series, i.e. 15. Welle divisions for occupation duties, on 6 infantry battalions, 1 engineer company, and 16 105mm howitzers - equipment from captured stocks. I.e., as you say, third-rate garrisons.
Add many odds and bits and you can call that the equivalent of 9 divisions; the odds and bits were of course, again, garrison troops.

Another 3 or 4 in North Africa?

2 and assorted bits, we could call it 3.
 
Thanks for taking the time to comment.

IMHO: The Germans would have sufficient force freed up from the eastern front to Reinforce the Afrika Corps and beef up their Night Fighter Defences.
Except that sticking more troops in africa means sending over more trucks, and that's not going to help until they do something about the ports. Maybe if Rommel hadn't screwed the hooch with Tobruk they might have been able to hold the front line long enough to actually start getting a railway set up, which would help with the supplies. NA is a boondoggle unless they're prepared to throw real money at the issue, rather than just troops.
 
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