WI Hitler declines to help Mussolini in 1941? Possible?

Another problem people haven't mentioned yet is diplomatic. Italy was considered Hitler's most important ally. If he just bails on them the other countries might wonder if he will bail on them as well. With GB in Greece which will almost certainly happen sooner or later the other countries will wonder if it is better to become neutral or friendly to GB than stick with such an uncertain ally.
 

Cook

Banned
after some pleas by Mussolini and for some other reasons...Is it possible that Hitler declined to help Mussolini?
The ‘some other reasons’ is the key to all this and the reason Hitler could not ignore the situation Mussolini had got himself into (More correctly; that Ciano had got Mussolini into).

Hitler was dependent on oil from the Romanian oil fields. With the British aircraft able to use bases in Greece the Romanian fields and refineries were vulnerable, threatening not just the upcoming Operation Barbarossa but the entire German war effort. When the Yugoslavia fell to what Hitler suspected of being a British backed coup things just got kicked into high gear.
 
The ‘some other reasons’ is the key to all this and the reason Hitler could not ignore the situation Mussolini had got himself into (More correctly; that Ciano had got Mussolini into).

Hitler was dependent on oil from the Romanian oil fields. With the British aircraft able to use bases in Greece the Romanian fields and refineries were vulnerable, threatening not just the upcoming Operation Barbarossa but the entire German war effort. When the Yugoslavia fell to what Hitler suspected of being a British backed coup things just got kicked into high gear.

As i said above Metaxas forbade the presence of British troops for this reason exactly... He didnt want to provoke Hitler to attack Greece.
If Metaxas's successor continued this policy Hitler wouldnt have to attack Greece and propably would let the Italians deal with the problem they created...
Unless the British take over Greece Hitler wouldnt sacrifice troops and time in cleaning up the "Italian mess"...
 

rohala

Banned
don Giorgio, you're wrong. Already since November 1940 Greece gave the duty for garissoning Crete to Britain, while a British Royal Air Force was also present, supporting the Greek operations in Albania. Add to this the material support provided by Britain.
From the moment Italy attacked Greece, Greece became by definition a British ally. Greece was no longer neutral. Greece wanted to limit the war to Italy and Greece. However as the war drew on, it became inevitable for Germany to intervene, beacuse it interfered with the plans for Barbarossa. British troops were allowed in significant numbers into Greece, after it had become absolutely obvious that Germany was preparing to invade. Indeed, it was Mussolini who already on 4 December 1940 had asked Germany for assistance against Greece, and the first plans for the German invasion began to from.

As long as the threat of a German intervention loomed above their heads, the Balkan states were very cautious and tried to remain neutral. With Germany having made clear they will stay out of the Balkans and deep inside Russia, the prospect of a re-activation of the Balkan Pact coalition plans is very realistic, particularly since Yugoslavia has her own scores to settle with Italy.
 
As long as the threat of a German intervention loomed above their heads, the Balkan states were very cautious and tried to remain neutral. With Germany having made clear they will stay out of the Balkans and deep inside Russia, the prospect of a re-activation of the Balkan Pact coalition plans is very realistic, particularly since Yugoslavia has her own scores to settle with Italy.

I tend to believe that Hitler was propably counting to Bulgaria and Yugoslavia in helping Italy against Greece so he could prepare Barbarossa without worrying for his flank.
But the sudden coup in Belgrade leading Yugoslavia to switch sides forced him to take the matter into his own hands since Italians proved incompetent and Bulgaria alone couldnt (propably) penetrate the Metaxas Line...
 
I'm sure those resources required to defend Ploesti would end up being less than what was committed in the creation/service of the DAK

Even more so if they want to maintain air parity in the long term. Also with Greece firmly in Allied hands the Germans are going to need to station even more troops in Yugoslavia and Bulgaia.
 

rohala

Banned
I tend to believe that Hitler was propably counting to Bulgaria and Yugoslavia in helping Italy against Greece so he could prepare Barbarossa without worrying for his flank.
But the sudden coup in Belgrade leading Yugoslavia to switch sides forced him to take the matter into his own hands since Italians proved incompetent and Bulgaria alone couldnt (propably) penetrate the Metaxas Line...
Yugoslavia was Greece's ally. Even at the best effort of the German diplomats, all they could force Yugoslavia to concede was neutrality. Not even passage of supplies for the Italians, let alone entrance to foreign troops. In fact Yugoslavia had a lot of disputes with Italy about Istria and the Dalmatian islands, which were inhabitted by Yugoslav people and occupied by Italy since WWI.
Bulgaria is powerless to act and deathly afraid of Turkey who has mobilised and concentrated 27 infantry, 2 cavalry and 1 motorised divisions in Thrace. Turkey is a close ally of Greece, and Greek and Turkish officials have met several times, having also laid plans for joint actions against Bulgaria.


As I've said, the Balkan states were mostly pro-Allied and it took a lot of influence and coercion from Germany to nullify the Balkan pact. With Germany away from the Balkans I believe that a large coalition would form , or at least that was both Churchill's vision and a realistic prospect. Although not worth much in modern warfare, there were hordes of Balkan infantry to cause a lot of trouble to Italy and possibly Germany.
 
Don't forget that in 1941 Hitler was still closely tied to Mussolini after the latter did nothing to stop the Anchluss. He was always going to help Mussolini in 1941 - even though he massively disapproved of the Italian invasion of Greece.
 
By late March 1941 the Italian campaign in Greece had come to a stalemate and the failure of the Italian Spring Offensive had frustrated Mussolini...
Is it possible that Hitler declined to help Mussolini? He could go like "Its your mess you clean it up"
What happens next? Germans launch Barbarossa earlier and Italians make a hasty peace leaving Greece return to its previous neutral status?

Apart from problems like the RAF possibly gaining bases close to Ploesti Hitler was actually a loyal though increasingly overbearing ally.

He had helped Mussolini in Italy, even though there was nothing in Libya of interest to him or to Germany.

It would be illogical to send Rommel to N Africa but leave the Italians dangling in the air over Greece. He actually helped Mussolini consistently even when the Germans were hard pressed later in Russia. He even had Mussolini sprang out of prison in 1943 even though he was a discredited fool by this time.
 

Cook

Banned
As i said above Metaxas forbade the presence of British troops for this reason exactly... He didnt want to provoke Hitler to attack Greece.
If Metaxas's successor continued this policy Hitler wouldnt have to attack Greece and propably would let the Italians deal with the problem they created...
Unless the British take over Greece Hitler wouldnt sacrifice troops and time in cleaning up the "Italian mess"...
On 28 October 1941, the day the Italians attacked Greece, Hitler and Mussolini met in Florence and Hitler offered German paratroop divisions to Mussolini for the conquest of Crete. Hitler gave Mussolini the lead in Greece because being part of the Mediterranean it fell within Italy’s agreed sphere of influence, but as with Libya and Malta, he could not completely ignore events there.

It’s possible that Metaxas could have won some kind of reprieve for Greece by appealing to Hitler to arbitrate between Italy and Greece (similar to his arbitration of the dispute between Hungary and Rumania) but it would not have come cheaply; concessions would have had to be made to Italy and Greece would have had to become an member of the Axis, with German forces based in Greece to ‘protect’ them against the British. The problem is such concessions probably would have resulted in a coup.

Rather than kicking the Italians out of Albania, the British could have simply cut them off from Italy.
Simply? The British struggled to limit the Italian convoys to Libya which is a much longer voyage and involved going past the RAF base of Malta. The Strait of Otranto meanwhile is only 100 km wide and is close to Italian air bases. Closing them is not going to be simple at all.
 
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rohala

Banned
Greece did ask Germany to mediate for an armistice with Italy, and Italy did demand concessions from Greece, which was unacceptable.

Greece cannot willingly cut herself away from whoever is master of the Mediterranean, because Greece is heavily reliant on maritime transport for her imports and exports. Greece was not self sufficient in grain, and completely dependent on imports for coal. As such, following the British naval blockade imposed in 1941 (as the naval blockade in 1916 had also shown btw), Greek economy stagnated and people faced famine.
 
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