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Historically, Erich von Manstein was probably the leading 'contender' amongst German officers after 1942 for appointment to Supreme Commander of German Forces, if Hitler would allow such a position to be created with effective power. Also, historically, von Manstein, arguably the best German commander of the war was dismissed by Hitler in March 1944 for repeated and direct criticism of his strategic decisions. However, at the same time, any doubts about his loyalty seem to have been relatively minimal, at least as far as Hitler was concerned- nothing else happened other than an upgrade to his Knight's Cross.

So how does the war change if Von Manstein, who was the primary architect of the titular Manstein plan for invading France and conducted a successful (if relatively minor) offensive after Stalingrad against Kharkov, doing a great deal to salvage the German position, as well as managing to keep his assigned Army Group South in one piece (no mean feat) in the aftermath of Kursk was actually appointed, either formally or in some titular second-in-command position to either/or Supreme Commander in the East or as overall Supreme Commander of German forces.

My proposition is that the earliest possible POD would've been in July 1942, after Manstein had seized Sevastopol- not likely his most brilliant achievement (I would nominate the plan for attacking France or perhaps the Kharkov offensive of 1943), but one that Hitler was particularly delighted with. Another possible POD would be in the immediate aftermath of the Kharkov offensive in March 1943.

Likely? Given Hitler's personality, not the most likely of possibilites- but perhaps with support from other generals (and at least postwar, many of the German generals specifically stated their desire to see von Manstein in that position), it could've been possible.

How would this change the war? A lot, a little?
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