WI Hiryu not spotted

As known, Hiryu was spotted by Yorktown's scout (Adams i think) much further north than expected, this only happening thanks to personal initiative.

But what happens if Adams doesn't go as far north, or just misses it etc. What does Spruance do when word of the second attack on Yorktown reaches him at 14.45 or so? Does he attacks again that day? What happens to Hiryu anyway, would the japanese have any luck with the dusk attack and be more confident with it still intact or ending having it (and even Zuiho, as likely they would have joined now) damaged or sunk the next day? Or to put it differently, how one can have a scenario with Hiryu intact for Guadalcanal, assuming everything else is fairly similar and it still gets to that (Watchtower i mean)?
 
The dusk attack would probably wipe out any offensive air potential the Japanese have. Maybe the Japanese get lucky and put a bomb on a deck of Hornet lets say.

I can see the Japanese sticking around until dawn. Doing the cruiser bombardment of midway as planned and trying to engage the american carriers with surface ships.

The Hiyru has a decent number of zeros left to fly a CAP. So I can see the Japanese proceeding with this especially if they think they damaged a carrier.

Sometime in the morning the Americans would find Hiryu, probably sink her, but the Americans might pull east to avoid surface engagement so losses probably OTL for Japan.

If I were the Japanese I would get the Hiryu out of the area overnight, even at the risk of losing other ships to air attack. They could probably realize the same thing too with a few hours to think about it.

Just getting Hiryu out of there is a big deal in the Solomons later.
 
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The dusk attack would probably wipe out any offensive air potential the Japanese have. Maybe the Japanese get lucky and put a bomb on a deck of Hornet lets say.

I can see the Japanese sticking around until dawn. Doing the cruiser bombardment of midway as planned and trying to engage the american carriers with surface ships.

The Hiyru has a decent number of zeros left to fly a CAP. So I can see the Japanese proceeding with this especially if they think they damaged a carrier.

Sometime in the morning the Americans would find Hiryu, probably sink her, but the Americans might pull east so losses probably OTL results.

HIRYU was down to five dive bombers and five torpedo bombers so her offensive potential was pretty low. Granted Japanese pilots at that time were quite good so even that small of a number could still put steel on target. HIRYU was preparing a third strike when Dick Best and company showed up so maybe they would have gotten some hits if they launched, maybe not but that attack group was HIRYU's last gasp, they would likely have been chewed to pieces by TF-16's CAP.

Regardless of the result, Spruance would still pull back east at night for the same reasons he did OTL.
 
Sorry i haven't posted here since Feb., haven't been online here for a while and hope it's alright to continue.

So, if we have the Midway bombardament and Nagumo&co seeking a surface battle, possibly they might stumble upon the drifting Yorktown and sink it. Perhaps the japanese might still scuttle Kaga and Soryu in the evening of the 4th, but then with the battlefield still under their control (sort of) Yamamoto might want to try and tow Akagi away and postpone the scuttling.

Regarding the hypothetical attack on TF16 at dusk, indeed there are very few attacks planes left on Hiryu so in view of the large numbers of F4Fs it's unlikely they would score many if any hits, but going with the scenario above one of the american CVs might be hit by a bomb and/or an attack plane crashing into it, so while the damage might not be fatal would still give Spruance pause for thought. If hit by even a torpedo given the vulnerability of the Yorktown class to such damage that carrier might be in mortal danger if forced to stop or drastically slow and Nagumo is charging for the US TF. Given that Spruance was told not to lose the carriers, with word that Yorktown was sunk by surface forces and one of his own CVs damaged, Spruance might choose to retreat.

At this point, if Yamamoto is smart, he could order the cancellation of the invasion anyway after Kurita does whatever damage he can to Midway, having bagged "two" carriers, still having Hiryu with perhaps 25 Zeros left, plus couple of D3As and 2-3 B5N, joined by this time by the Zuiho with it's aircraft (12 fighters and 12 B5Ns) and perhaps having a cruiser or BB towing the crippled Akagi away. If he is really, really lucky one of the IJN subs around might have a go at Spruance's carriers while he's moving away from Midway.

However, if no US carriers are damaged in the dusk attack, Nagumo still charges east and possibly sinks Yorktown, Kurita still bombards Midway at dawn but on the morning of the 5th the battle might be renewed between TF16 with approx. 50 F4F and 60 SBD still operational and Nagumo's force with Hiryu and Zuiho totaling about 40 fighters, just a handful of D3As and about 15 B5Ns, supported by four fast BBs, six cruisers and a dozen or more DDs. Not sure if Yamamoto himself with 3 large BBs plus escorts and the Hosho with 6 old B4Ys would be within range to support Nagumo and Kondo as they presumably have steadily moved east during the night. In this scenario the chances that the surviving IJN carriers escape unscathed are poor, but again, the scenario might sort of repeat just like in the previous day, couple of lucky torpedo hits could cripple a US CV which could be finished by the large number of BBs and CAs the japanese have east of Midway during the night of 5th/6th, but the japanese might themselves lose or at least have severly damaged another or both their CVs. Fewer bomb hits might result in Hiryu surviving to fight another day though. So let's say Zuiho is sunk, Hiryu is damaged but repaired and available by Santa Cruz at the latest, while Akagi is towed home and repaired (or rather, rebuilt) as well but will not be ready before 1943.
 
As known, Hiryu was spotted by Yorktown's scout (Adams i think) much further north than expected, this only happening thanks to personal initiative.

But what happens if Adams doesn't go as far north, or just misses it etc. What does Spruance do when word of the second attack on Yorktown reaches him at 14.45 or so? Does he attacks again that day? What happens to Hiryu anyway, would the japanese have any luck with the dusk attack and be more confident with it still intact or ending having it (and even Zuiho, as likely they would have joined now) damaged or sunk the next day? Or to put it differently, how one can have a scenario with Hiryu intact for Guadalcanal, assuming everything else is fairly similar and it still gets to that (Watchtower i mean)?

The possibilities range from, on one side, an outcome about identical to the real battle, (Hiryu caught and sunk on the 5th, Spruance's TF-16 intact and in pursuit). On the other side, the dusk Hiryu strike scores one or two torpedo hits on a carrier, (the chances of a bomb hit were higher, but a US CV would be almost certain to shrug off a bomb hit or two, whereas even one torpedo hit might be a fatal loss of propulsion).

One option for Yamamoto if Hiryu were to survive would be to ferry aircraft to Hiryu from the other carriers rather than physically joining them. Zuiho and Hosho might have been able to send their torpedo bombers (all obsolete) on the 5th, Junyo and Ryujo maybe on the 6th.
 
I'm not sure how repairable Akagi would have been anyways. You'd probably be better cutting her up for steel and just building a new carrier with her name.
 
I'm not sure how repairable Akagi would have been anyways. You'd probably be better cutting her up for steel and just building a new carrier with her name.
This very subject i know has been discussed here on several occassions, both sides having their arguments. Imo, i can only draw parallels betwen Akagi (or rather, in terms of destruction and casualties, perhaps Kaga is more fitting) and Franklin.

Edit: to amplify a bit, as you know despite the acclaimed damage control capabilities of USN, it didn't help much with the fires on Franklin, basically they had to let the fires die out. But in the end as the vitals were not significantly affected, they were able to restore power. The Essex class had a 2,5 inch deck armour over the vitals, while Akagi it appears it had a 3,1 inch one. Imo, i would say that as they are built on batlecruiser/ battleship hulls Akagi and Kaga would be more solid than an Essex. Of course, saving Akagi depends on one, the will to do so, two, towing it away from the battlefield which is dependent on the IJN controlling the surrounding waters, while trying to restore power and straighten the rudder, and three, avoid whatever US attacks that may possibly come it's way, air or submarine. So as a fair number of things needs to fall in place to save Akagi, the chances of it being saved are perhaps not overwhelming, but not inconsiderable either.

If Akagi makes it home, then much like Franklin, imo they would need to basically rebuild the hangars and flight deck up, new elevators, island, AA guns and all the sundry equipments needed to operate her airgroup. So it will probably take a year or more, but certainly a lot less than building even another Unryu class, which took about two years.
 
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The possibilities range from, on one side, an outcome about identical to the real battle, (Hiryu caught and sunk on the 5th, Spruance's TF-16 intact and in pursuit). On the other side, the dusk Hiryu strike scores one or two torpedo hits on a carrier, (the chances of a bomb hit were higher, but a US CV would be almost certain to shrug off a bomb hit or two, whereas even one torpedo hit might be a fatal loss of propulsion).

One option for Yamamoto if Hiryu were to survive would be to ferry aircraft to Hiryu from the other carriers rather than physically joining them. Zuiho and Hosho might have been able to send their torpedo bombers (all obsolete) on the 5th, Junyo and Ryujo maybe on the 6th.
Hi Glenn,

Come to think of it, the Zeros could carry 60 kg bombs no? So if Kido Butai Zeros usually carried the wing racks, perhaps they could also send a chutai of 9 or so Zeros as fighter bombers. They can't do that much damage but at least it would help to deflect attention from the torpedo planes as there would be almost no D3As left to execute a simultaneous dive/torpedo attack.

Other than that, the attraction of the idea you suggest is that likely all Zuiho's B5N1s could take off with a torpedo from the much faster and longer Hiryu. Iirc, Zuiho could only launch 3 or maybe 6 torpedo armed B5Ns in one go due to speed and flight deck lenght limitations.
 
Hi Glenn,

Come to think of it, the Zeros could carry 60 kg bombs no? So if Kido Butai Zeros usually carried the wing racks, perhaps they could also send a chutai of 9 or so Zeros as fighter bombers. They can't do that much damage but at least it would help to deflect attention from the torpedo planes as there would be almost no D3As left to execute a simultaneous dive/torpedo attack.

Other than that, the attraction of the idea you suggest is that likely all Zuiho's B5N1s could take off with a torpedo from the much faster and longer Hiryu. Iirc, Zuiho could only launch 3 or maybe 6 torpedo armed B5Ns in one go due to speed and flight deck lenght limitations.

I can't think of any instance where Zeros carried 60kg bombs at this stage of the war. They might have done that at Pearl Harbor if it was SOP.
 
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