WI: Hindenburg Dies before Becoming President?

What if Paul von Hindenburg died before running for President of Germany in 1925? Would the German anti-democratic right be able to get a candidate elected without someone of Hindenburg's popularity, or instead would the pro-democracy Weimar coalition be victorious with a President able to protect the republic? How would this effect the rise of the Nazis?
 
Given that the Zentrum candidate Wilhelm Marx (who was also supported by the SPD and the DDP) almost defeated Hindenburg in the second round in 1925, I think it safe to say that Marx would have defeated any other candidate of the Right, such as Karl Jarres (the candidate of the DNVP and DVP in the first round). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_presidential_election,_1925 Neither Jarres nor any other conservative candidate I can think of had anything like Hindenburg's prestige.

Would a President Wilhelm Marx mean no Hitler government? The answer is probably yes, provided Marx were re-elected in 1932. If he lost to Hitler, that would probably just mean a Hitler dictatorship a year early. Hindenburg's victory over Hitler was decisive--53.0-36.8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_presidential_election,_1932 Marx would no doubt win by a narrower margin, but I still think he would win--and would not appoint Papen, Schleicher, or Hitler chancellor.
 
Given that the Zentrum candidate Wilhelm Marx (who was also supported by the SPD and the DDP) almost defeated Hindenburg in the second round in 1925, I think it safe to say that Marx would have defeated any other candidate of the Right, such as Karl Jarres (the candidate of the DNVP and DVP in the first round). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_presidential_election,_1925 Neither Jarres nor any other conservative candidate I can think of had anything like Hindenburg's prestige.

Would a President Wilhelm Marx mean no Hitler government? The answer is probably yes, provided Marx were re-elected in 1932. If he lost to Hitler, that would probably just mean a Hitler dictatorship a year early. Hindenburg's victory over Hitler was decisive--53.0-36.8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_presidential_election,_1932 Marx would no doubt win by a narrower margin, but I still think he would win--and would not appoint Papen, Schleicher, or Hitler chancellor.


Would Marx still have called the Reichstag election of 1930, in which the NSDAP soared from 12 members to 105? If not, how does their smaller delegation affect the politics of the period?
 
Would Marx still have called the Reichstag election of 1930, in which the NSDAP soared from 12 members to 105? If not, how does their smaller delegation affect the politics of the period?

I dont know Wilhelm Marx but if we are allowed to assume that he was more of a democrat than Hindenburg - I think that might be a safe bet - I think the presidential government would have been butterflied. I dont know what the result of that would be.
 
Here's a slight twist - what if Hindenburg dies after the 1932 election, but before being sworn in to office a second time?
 

GI Jim

Banned
The rise of the Nazi's post 1930 would be in my opinion rather difficult to supress, even with an ostensibly more liberal president than Hindenburg. Even without a parliamentary majority, NSDAP had enough of a platform and public perception to heavily influence the German Government. I could quite easily see a NSDAP-DNVP etc. Coalition taking a majority and the chancellorship sometime in the mid 1930s.
 
Would Marx still have called the Reichstag election of 1930, in which the NSDAP soared from 12 members to 105? If not, how does their smaller delegation affect the politics of the period?

I dont know Wilhelm Marx but if we are allowed to assume that he was more of a democrat than Hindenburg - I think that might be a safe bet - I think the presidential government would have been butterflied. I dont know what the result of that would be.
The president must call for such new elections after the great coalition fell apart on March 27th, 1930, and after the Reichstag rejected Brüning's budget.
Now, theoretically there could be another chancellor other than Brüning, but would he find a majority for a budget in times of Depression? I don't see anyone else would.
So, 1930 elections it is, even with Marx as president.
And after the 1930 elections, avoiding presidential governments is possible, but it now requires an even broader coalition of even more unlikely allies in even harder times.

Even president Marx might have to appoint Reichskanzler Hitler, if the latter cobbled together a majority in the Reichstag, which is not entirely unthinkable with the results of 1932. But I seriously doubt that Marx would have signed the kind of decrees Hindenburg signed in February 1933 which legalised the dictatorship - and I doubt that Marx would have staged the "Preußenschlag". Without the latter, two thirds of the regional police forces across the Reich would still be loyal to the Republic and not so easily succumb to a Gleichschaltung if the latter had no legal basis whatsoever. So, with a president MArx, Hitler could either have played the long game, using his time in power to bring as many Nazis into positions in the state apparatus as possible before his coalition falls apart, which could help him at a later date. Or he gambles all or nothing, abandons his pseudo-legal strategies and goes full coup, which may or may not have ended up in a civil war in 1933.

Now, if Hitler doesn't manage to get a majority in the Reichstag, I'm not sure Marx would appoint him like Hindenburg did, but it's not entirely excluded. If he did under such circumstances, though, Hitler has less time than above for his machinations because he'll soon face a vote of no confidence in parliament.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
The president must call for such new elections after the great coalition fell apart on March 27th, 1930, and after the Reichstag rejected Brüning's budget.
Now, theoretically there could be another chancellor other than Brüning, but would he find a majority for a budget in times of Depression? I don't see anyone else would.
So, 1930 elections it is, even with Marx as president.
And after the 1930 elections, avoiding presidential governments is possible, but it now requires an even broader coalition of even more unlikely allies in even harder times.

Even president Marx might have to appoint Reichskanzler Hitler, if the latter cobbled together a majority in the Reichstag, which is not entirely unthinkable with the results of 1932. But I seriously doubt that Marx would have signed the kind of decrees Hindenburg signed in February 1933 which legalised the dictatorship - and I doubt that Marx would have staged the "Preußenschlag". Without the latter, two thirds of the regional police forces across the Reich would still be loyal to the Republic and not so easily succumb to a Gleichschaltung if the latter had no legal basis whatsoever. So, with a president MArx, Hitler could either have played the long game, using his time in power to bring as many Nazis into positions in the state apparatus as possible before his coalition falls apart, which could help him at a later date. Or he gambles all or nothing, abandons his pseudo-legal strategies and goes full coup, which may or may not have ended up in a civil war in 1933.

Now, if Hitler doesn't manage to get a majority in the Reichstag, I'm not sure Marx would appoint him like Hindenburg did, but it's not entirely excluded. If he did under such circumstances, though, Hitler has less time than above for his machinations because he'll soon face a vote of no confidence in parliament.


Brüning wanted the new elections in 1930. According to his memoirs to avoid another election till 1934, because he expected the crisis to last for four years.


But his chancellorship might be butterflied away anyhow.


Crazy idea: Ludendorff is elected instead. The Horror!
 
Brüning wanted the new elections in 1930. According to his memoirs to avoid another election till 1934, because he expected the crisis to last for four years.


But his chancellorship might be butterflied away anyhow.


Crazy idea: Ludendorff is elected instead. The Horror!
Well, Brüning may have wanted it and provoked the Reichstag with his austerity budget.
Let's say a different chancellor tries to govern without the SPD - let's choose a diplomatic person like Julius Curtius. He has to bring a budget through the Reichstag, too - and I can't see him drafting one which appeases a majority, whichever way he turns. In early summer 1930, nobody anticipated the landslide Nazi victory. The parties represented in parliament were all overestimating their electoral chances therefore (except maybe for Zentrum and DDP, who were both acutely aware of their structural losses, which weighed a lot heavier in the case of the DDP, but which hurt the Zentrum, too). So, honestly, the only chance I see to avoid the 1930 elections is to have the cabinet Müller II survive and not fall apart over the raising of the unemployment contributions. I'm not sure a president Marx could pull that trick.

(Ludendorff was involved in the failed Beer Hall putsch in 1923, he would certainly not have been elected in 1932.)
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Well, Brüning may have wanted it and provoked the Reichstag with his austerity budget.
Let's say a different chancellor tries to govern without the SPD - let's choose a diplomatic person like Julius Curtius. He has to bring a budget through the Reichstag, too - and I can't see him drafting one which appeases a majority, whichever way he turns. In early summer 1930, nobody anticipated the landslide Nazi victory. The parties represented in parliament were all overestimating their electoral chances therefore (except maybe for Zentrum and DDP, who were both acutely aware of their structural losses, which weighed a lot heavier in the case of the DDP, but which hurt the Zentrum, too). So, honestly, the only chance I see to avoid the 1930 elections is to have the cabinet Müller II survive and not fall apart over the raising of the unemployment contributions. I'm not sure a president Marx could pull that trick.

(Ludendorff was involved in the failed Beer Hall putsch in 1923, he would certainly not have been elected in 1932.)


Ludendorff ran in 1925 for the NSDAP. It is very unlikely, but if Hindenburg dies shortly after excepting the candidancy there is a little chance that DNVP and DVP switch support to the other general running. Likely resulting in Marx winning. It was just a thought. Maybe for an ASB TL.
 
It's hard to see how new elections could be avoided in 1930. The SPD-Zentrum-DDP-DVP coalition was very fragile. The only way it could be saved would be if the SPD went along with the austerity program demanded by the Zentrum and DVP, and this would deeply alienate many of its own followers who might defect to the KPD or even the NSDAP. Also, remember that Hermann Müller, who did try to get the SPD to be more accommodating "in deteriorating health, no longer had the strength to fight." https://books.google.com/books?id=My6VNpvQlYIC&pg=PA291

Indeed, even if the Zentrum had not been moving to the Right, the fact that the coalition depended on the DVP would itself probably eventually be fatal. The DVP's own move to the Right was probably inevitable after Stresemann's death.
 
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