WI: Hillary Clinton Ran in a Different State?

Westbrook 49 · Mar 9, 2015

This is a bit of an odd one, and probably not a big divergence, but it occurred to me: what if Hillary Clinton runs in a state that is not New York?

Remember, before her run, HRC had no attachment to the Empire State, and was accused of being a carpetbagger. She was born in Illinois, went to college at Wellesley and Yale, and then lived/worked in Arkansas. Illinois and Arkansas would seem to be the natural locations for her to run, with Massachusetts and Connecticut being secondary options to set up a run.

So what would have been another logical location for Hillary to run in? Or what would have been the effects of her not running for Senate in New York?

M. Adolphe Thiers · Mar 9, 2015

Well I imagine she didn't choose Illinois because Cook County controls the elections, and as seen with her relationship with Obama they have their differing agendas. Arkansas personally I think she might have a hard time winning as well, Bill's charisma probably won't draw enough people to her.

Honestly I think Massachusetts and Connecticut are likely. She probably wouldn't run in a state that wasn't heavily Democratic.

DocBrown · Mar 9, 2015

All Illinois is is just the elite of Chicago's domain. Take that from a resident of the state

NickCT · Mar 9, 2015

MA and CT are out because you had long-serving Dem senators. If she challenged Lieberman, it would look like she was ganging up on him for going after Bill during the Lewinsky scandal (but I doubt she'd even challenge him in a primary...)

Arkansas would mean a vastly different Hillary, but I think she could run and win there, at least in 2002.

Ameise · Mar 9, 2015

DocBrown said:
All Illinois is is just the elite of Chicago's domain. Take that from a resident of the state

As someone in Chicagoland, stop speaking up, peasant!

While Cook County controls the elections, it's possible that she could have run. But which election? 1998 seems unlikely, 2004 is somewhat late. I have no doubts she would have beaten Keyes (if he was run against her), but she would have been going against Obama in her own party. If she beats Obama in the 2004 Illinois Senate election, she could end up President in 2008, as Obama certainly isn't going to be president in that situation.

I doubt she'd beat Obama in such a situation, though.

Goffik · Mar 10, 2015

Ameise said:
As someone in Chicagoland, stop speaking up, peasant!

While Cook County controls the elections, it's possible that she could have run. But which election? 1998 seems unlikely, 2004 is somewhat late. I have no doubts she would have beaten Keyes (if he was run against her), but she would have been going against Obama in her own party. If she beats Obama in the 2004 Illinois Senate election, she could end up President in 2008, as Obama certainly isn't going to be president in that situation.

I doubt she'd beat Obama in such a situation, though.

She would probably win easily, actually, because she's more popular than OTL by not being in the Senate, and thus not voting for the Iraq War. Obama probably drops out once it's clear she'll run.

David T · Mar 10, 2015

In Illinois, there were no US Senate seats at stake in 2000, and the one up in 2002 was held by Dick Durbin, who was popular among Illinois Democrats and had no intention of retiring. Waiting until 2004 to challenge Peter Fitzgerald would just be too long of a wait for her; besides, Carol Moseley Braun might want her old seat back --and to challenge her might alienate African American voters. (I don't think anyone in the late 1990's anticipated Obama running for the seat in 2004.)

David T · Mar 10, 2015

Ameise said:
As someone in Chicagoland, stop speaking up, peasant!

While Cook County controls the elections, it's possible that she could have run. But which election? 1998 seems unlikely, 2004 is somewhat late. I have no doubts she would have beaten Keyes (if he was run against her), but she would have been going against Obama in her own party. If she beats Obama in the 2004 Illinois Senate election, she could end up President in 2008, as Obama certainly isn't going to be president in that situation.

I doubt she'd beat Obama in such a situation, though.

1998 is not just unlikely but impossible. She is not going to run while her husband is still president (and fighting impeachment!), and even if she were, she would not challenge an incumbent Democrat, let alone the only female African American senator in US history. To defeat impeachment, the Clintons needed strong African American support.

As for 2004, nobody in the late 1990's could anticipate Fitzgerald's retirement, Braun's decision not to seek to regain her old seat, or Obama's 2004 candidacy, let alone Keyes'. Everyone in (say) 1999 assumed Fitzgerald would run again in 2004 and might be hard to beat.