WI: Hernan Cortez and his men are massacred by the Aztecs

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Peace with Spain ? Cortez brought a group of 500 hundred men, and toppled the Aztec Empire. If Spain ever would find itself at war with Aztec Empire(not that they would even bother, since to Spain it would be a war with primitive natives, that they would view as half-naked barbarians-not my view but stating the attitude of that time), then Aztec Empire is gone without a question.
None of the entities mentioned have a chance of survival. Only the Inca with very big butterfiles, can dream of becoming a client state of European power, to be absorbed as a province later, barring PODs like total devastation of European civilization(of cours I mean post-Columbus contact)

Gah, I can't remember a post on the subject with more modern cliches than this. They didn't topple the Aztecs with 500 men, they did it with 200,000+, and they did not view them as primitive natives, but as a large civilization full of plunder. The accounts of the conquistadors are full of wonder at the size and opulence of the places they went to.

Not sure why you think the Inca had more of a chance, when they were conquered by far less, the last Mayan city-state fell in 1647, but even then they had several major rebellions, one establishing a Maya Free State that lasted from 1847 to 1933, and they still control much of Chiapas now, and the Aztecs didn't fall over quietly.

 

[Malta]

Cortes largely went on his own and gung-ho, for a while it seemed to many in Spain that he would set himself up as the Lord of the Aztecs and be opposition to Spain and was watched afterward vey closely by Royal Officals after he set up New Spain which Cortes never appreciated.

Charles V of the HRE didn;t reallyc are much for New Spain except as a source of revenue. If Cortes is defeated, and the Aztec Empire turned upside down (but tales of its oppulance reached the King) its likely he would have threatened the Mesoamericans and imposed tribute from them rather then waste finances and men attempting to conquer them.

 

[8Deer]

Charles V of the HRE didn;t reallyc are much for New Spain except as a source of revenue. If Cortes is defeated, and the Aztec Empire turned upside down (but tales of its oppulance reached the King) its likely he would have threatened the Mesoamericans and imposed tribute from them rather then waste finances and men attempting to conquer them.

Maybe in a scenario like this we could see the Tarascans expanding and becoming more powerful? IIRC, the Tarascan kingdom was more territorial, compared to the Aztecs, which was more hegemonic. They also used bronze to make tools and weapons, something which no other nation in Mesoamerica did, I believe.

 

[Malta]

Lets say that Cortes and his Conquistadors and rally the Tlaxcallans, and Tlaxcaltecs and others in revolts but on the way to Tenochtitllan he dies (lets says Syphillus) and the Conquistadors split apart while the Aztecs counterattack and battles bewteen the forces leads to a Aztec victory but they are exhausted. The Tarascans spieing the weakended state of their eternal rival invade and conquer the Valley of the Mexica while the Tlaxcallans and others chew off what they can, get surviving Conquistadors into their ranks (same with the Tarascans). They teach everyone some basic technological points but importantly become the go bewteens with these various states who the Spanish will use to convey threats the weakened Mesoamerican states. The various states already full knowledgeable of the techno prowness of the Spanish and weakened in the war accept nominal rule to the Spanish and send gold tributes to the Spanish (not as much as they can but enough to have Charles V and the Spanish well pleased).

So they can go through the plagues, get some technological knowledge for a while and recover. When the English come onto the world stage they will likely revolt against the Spanish.

 

[Chengar Qordath]

2. The plagues would most likely not shatter the Aztec Empire as you imagined, they held together enough to give a lot of resistance to Cortez. It is likely that they would surmise that more Spanish would come, probably from asking prisoners, and the new emperor was a much, much stronger and smarter leader than Motecuzoma Xocoyotzin.

The plagues might not be enough by themselves, but there is the matter of the plagues making the Aztecs appear vulnerable to all of their very angry and resentful neighbors.

Considering how high the mortality rate of the Columbian Exchange plagues were (IIRC the conservative estimate is 80% of the population) I think it's rather hard to argue that the Aztecs could bounce back from the plagues relatively intact within a couple years.

Lets say that Cortes and his Conquistadors and rally the Tlaxcallans, and Tlaxcaltecs and others in revolts but on the way to Tenochtitllan he dies (lets says Syphillus)

Wouldn't be syphilis; according to wikipedia he had already contracted and recovered from it in 1511.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

The plagues did kill 80-95% of the natives over time, but not all at once. The first waves which hit the Aztecs IIRC killed roughly a third of them. Still traumatically bad, but they did fight on for many months against a huge array of cannons and hordes of Tlaxcallans and others.

Tomb: A better PoD for the death of Cortez would probably be La Noche Triste, as even OTL they came very close to killing or capturing every Spaniard in the expedition. Or perhaps earlier, but before Cortez left to meet Narvaez.

 

[Typo]

Gah, I can't remember a post on the subject with more modern cliches than this. They didn't topple the Aztecs with 500 men, they did it with 200,000+, and they did not view them as primitive natives, but as a large civilization full of plunder. The accounts of the conquistadors are full of wonder at the size and opulence of the places they went to.

If 500 foreign adventurers can raise an army of 200k to fight the Aztec, then they were screwed anyways,

The first waves which hit the Aztecs IIRC killed roughly a third of them. Still traumatically bad, but they did fight on for many months against a huge array of cannons and hordes of Tlaxcallans and others.

I remember it being half actually. Societies collapse at around losing a quarter of their population.

The Aztec and the Incas were the most screwed of all the native American peoples precisely because they were the most advanced and there was the most economic incentive to destory them, at some point one of the European states would have sent an actual army to do so.

 

[Umbral]

I suspect the Aztecs would have fallen anyway. Too many neighbours hated them. They would not have survived the disruption caused by the plagues.

Not sure why you think the Inca had more of a chance, when they were conquered by far less, the last Mayan city-state fell in 1647, but even then they had several major rebellions, one establishing a Maya Free State that lasted from 1847 to 1933, and they still control much of Chiapas now, and the Aztecs didn't fall over quietly.

The Incas were first encountered when in the throes of a plague-induced civil war. They actually had a number of advantages over the Aztecs and Mayas.

The Mayas took a long time to conquer because they were a bunch of city-states. The Incas were an empire which had the cosmic misfortune of having its emperor fall into conquistador hands almost at first contact.

The Incas advantages included a lot of exceptionally defensible territory, a more advanced system of goverment, beasts of burden, communications, and being a very new empire. When Colombus landed, there were still people in the Inca empire that remembered the times before expansion started.

The were still figuring out ways to adapt and solve problems. to my mind, they were far more likly to actually try to learn and pick up stuff from the Europeans than any other nation in mesoamerica.

All that Spanish armor and firearms and ammo are laying around. The Aztecs shouldn't have too much difficulty in adopting it and beginning to make their own.

I can see the concept of metal armor being understood and remarked on as advantageous, but beyond that I don't think so. No other group contacted by the europeans seems to have made any serious try at this, and no-one seems to have succeded. The closest case would be Japan, who had known of chinese fireworks for a very long time.

There were metal-using states in the area at the time, but I don't think the Aztecs were anywhere near the best at that. And as for figuring out iron...well wrought iron is the easiest to make, but actually weaker than bronze. When the Hittites figured out how to make steel weapon, they successfully kept th proces a military secret from the other metalworking competitior nations for a considerable time.

Those other states were as smart as the Aztecs, had a metalworking industry and familiarity with iron, massive motivation and they still found it pretty hard.

The whole concept of picking up the other guys ways seem to be more a part of our own modern worldview. Ancient peoples seem to have looked at their identity as more tied in with the ways they did things.

 

[Typo]

Also it is doubtful the Aztec will embark on a concious modernization program even if they had the capacity for it (which they probably didn't).

There was only one state which did so out of all the ones ecountered by Europeans, and they had 40 years to catch up with 300, not a decade or two to catch up with 2000.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Cortez could assemble 200K Indians against Aztecs. While his own army was at most 1300 Spaniards (he got reinforcements). Even so, it was hard fighting.

Suppose that Cortez´ men are massacred, some imprisoned. Sure, smallpox is ravaging the Aztecs. But it also is ravaging their subjects/potential allies of Spaniards. So a few years later another expedition will find only 100K allies. And while epidemics have been ravaging Aztecs and their allies equally, the Aztec military actions would affect the allies of Cortez more, because they have been on the losing end for several years after Cortez´ destruction and the next expedition.

Could the French make contact with Aztecs if the Empire survives a few years more?

 

[Emera78]

Yes, I can only see Inca in better circumstances being able to Christianize (even if it would be a token gesture) and become somewhat like Ethiopia, a vassal of Spain.
The advantages for Aztecs in different scenarios could mean less destruction,but not survival. One thing which would be interesting, would be the survival of Tenochitlan, which would by modern times be considered one of the wonders of the world. With less destruction of Aztec cultural artifacts you could perhaps have a more native-orientated Mexico, and an stronger Aztlan movement by XX century.

 

[Typo]

Except whenever the Europeans comeback, they are likely to have an actual army with them, and the Aztec might have already collapsed on their own due to diseases, or at least much much weaker than Cortez's ecounter because of it.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Umbral: You posted yet another common, yet forgivable but no less incorrect, misconception. The Mayas did not survive that long because they were multiple city states. Their fractious nature actually worked against them as much as it did with the Nahua peoples to the north. The 16 Maya states were mostly aligned to either the Tutul Xiu faction or the Cocom faction in a long-running civil war, and the Spanish got the Tutul Xius to join their side. The Maya only survived as long as they did because of the terrain, their use of guerrilla warfare as compared to the Aztecs routinely facing the Spanish on open ground set-piece battles, and even then the last city, Tah Itza, only lasted because of its isolation being deep inside the Yucatan.

Also, you fail to take into account the nature of the Spanish king. Although he might not completely spare the natives, he held a high respect for them and would likely take them as vassals. Even if not, and they were conquered, without Cortez and his buddies, who as I said were among the cruelest conquistadors, you would likely not see the same destruction as OTL, with most vestiges of native culture being burned and the people themselves being reduced to slavery or serfdom.

 

[AmIndHistoryAuthor]

I can see the concept of metal armor being understood and remarked on as advantageous, but beyond that I don't think so. No other group contacted by the europeans seems to have made any serious try at this, and no-one seems to have succeded. The closest case would be Japan, who had known of chinese fireworks for a very long time.

There were metal-using states in the area at the time, but I don't think the Aztecs were anywhere near the best at that....

Those other states were as smart as the Aztecs, had a metalworking industry and familiarity with iron, massive motivation and they still found it pretty hard.

The whole concept of picking up the other guys ways seem to be more a part of our own modern worldview. Ancient peoples seem to have looked at their identity as more tied in with the ways they did things.

Not so.

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http://www.digitalheritage.org/index.php/heritage-moments/2-featured/3-blacksmithing
"[The Cherokee] have acquired a knowledge of most of the mechanic arts known by their white neighbors, and not only do their own blacksmithing, stocking of guns, and coopering, but do much work of that description for the whites." ~Quoted from Memorial of the Cherokee Indians Residing in North Carolina: Praying the payment of their claims, agreeably to the 8th and 12the articles of the treaty of 1835, June 25, 1846

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http://www.durangosilver.com/navajosilversmithhist.htm
Learning metalsmithing, however, would have required tools and materials the Navajos did not have, and the Spaniards were sworn enemies. Contact was far too brief to allow even the quick-learning Dine' to acquire Spanish skills...it is generally accepted that one of the first blacksmiths was Atsidi Sani (Old Smith), or Herrera Delgadito (Little Slim Ironworker), as he was known by the Mexicans. Margery Bedinger states in Indian Silver that "In about 1850 [Atsidi Sani] journeyed south to a Mexican settlement near Mount Taylor... and persuaded one of the inhabitants, Nakai Tsosi (Thin Mexican), to teach him how to form the black metal."
If not the first Navajo blacksmith, Atsidi Sani was the most prominent, and probably the most proficient, of that era. Noted for making knives and bridle bits, he would teach his craft to many Navajos, including some of the men at Bosque Redondo.

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And probably the most relevant to this discussion. Apparently Aztec codices describe Aztec blacksmiths already all the way out in remote Nahua villages by the 1550s.
http://books.google.com/books?id=FS...ook_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CAgQ6AEwAQ

Almost certainly there would have been Aztec blacksmiths far earlier in the larger cities.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

"Picking up the other guy's ways" was a trademark of native American Indian resistance. They picked up horses very damn early, with great relish and mastered the art of horsemanship in an admirable amount of time. They also easily adopted guns around the time guns started becoming more useful than noisemakers, and before that found many countermeasures. All over the Americas, they learned that to survive arquebus volleys they simply had to hit the ground as the shooters ignited the powder, and then chopped them up before they could reload. Horses were countered by taking advantage of rocky or wooded terrain. Modern cliches, really, about them being all that superstitious about the new technology.

However, AmInd, you overestimate the value of Spanish technology. The only thing advantageous to the Aztecs would be the steel itself. The crossbows, swords, pikes, etc, would be adopted, but the armor and guns would be little more than new treasures to add to their collections. The best use for steel for them would be to use it to tip their darts and arrows, and to make steel/iron flakes for their swords instead of obsidian flakes.

 

[Malta]

Hmmm this timeline has potential indeed....in the near future look for a thread titled something like "The Heart of the Empire"....

Yes that is a metaphor for Gold and Meaty, Human Hearts....

 

[Emera78]

"Picking up the other guy's ways" was a trademark of native American Indian resistance. They picked up horses very damn early, with great relish and mastered the art of horsemanship in an admirable amount of time. They also easily adopted guns around the time guns started becoming more useful than noisemakers, and before that found many countermeasures. All over the Americas, they learned that to survive arquebus volleys they simply had to hit the ground as the shooters ignited the powder, and then chopped them up before they could reload. Horses were countered by taking advantage of rocky or wooded terrain.

....and then the native Americans drove the defeated White Man into the sea and he never came back.
Oh wait, they didn't. In fact they were utterly and totally destroyed, with not a shade of anything that could be considered equal to any European colonial state.

The romantic tales of and "resistance" are just that. Understandable in the context of their tragic fall. But the truth is that besides occassional trouble and raids, the technological and strategic gap(yes it was not only the equipment but also the knowledge how you can use it, and centuries of organised warfare to draw experience from) between the native people and colonisers was too wide. They couldn't possibly hope to outmatch the invaders, even if by your sparse accounts they learned some of the technology 300 years later. Nowhere on the American continent did any of the native civilizations resist Europeans with success. The Aztecs certainly don't look like a plausible candidate to survive, especially with a small POD like death of Cortez.
They were hordes of men just like Cortez in Europe, only waiting for their chance at glory in America. If not for Cortez, others would crush the Aztec Empire, just like all native American civilizations were destroyed.

There are interesting PODs to consider that would change the fate of native American civilizations, but you would need far earlier or deeper PODs then death of Cortez.

Almost certainly there would have been Aztec blacksmiths far earlier in the larger cities.

Why ? The Aztec Empire would be troubled by epidemics, internal strife and conquistadors. There would be few large cities to begin with.

Although he might not completely spare the natives, he held a high respect for them and would likely take them as vassals

If the Spanish kings held natives in such high esteem, why were they virtually exterminated in Spanish mines through essentially slave labour ? Hmmm?

 

[Polish Eagle]

I just want to restate: Having examples of Spanish steel does not teach the Aztecs how to mine iron. Unless one of the soldiers happens to be a blacksmith, and another having knowledge of iron mining, the steel will soon run out, due to rusting, misplacement, etc. You guys seem to be overestimating how much the steel will help.

 

[Malta]

I just want to restate: Having examples of Spanish steel does not teach the Aztecs how to mine iron. Unless one of the soldiers happens to be a blacksmith, and another having knowledge of iron mining, the steel will soon run out, due to rusting, misplacement, etc. You guys seem to be overestimating how much the steel will help.

That and the whole whole bunch of Conqustadors thing is the reason why the Aztecs and Co. were and could not be able to survive a technological war with Europa in a short time frame, a situation has to occur that will give them time to learn before they go head to head with Europeans eventually. If tis was ASB or just slightly or something it would be a deadly plague that wipes out all the Europeans as equally effective as Smallpox to the Euros, but for this the Conquistadors have to forcibly be reigned in or see another opportunity to plunder closer to home...France....revolts in Spain were common...the Ottoman Emprie though...now who wouldn't want to go for the gold of the Muslims? This was also a time when Islam was percieved very muchly as a threat to the Christian world. Perhaps if Charles V decalres a crusade....

 

[Emera78]

That and the whole whole bunch of Conqustadors thing is the reason why the Aztecs and Co. were and could not be able to survive a technological war with Europa in a short time frame, a situation has to occur that will give them time to learn before they go head to head with Europeans eventually

And then what? A late stone age civilization will manage to defeat XVI century European colonial power?
If 500 Europeans could topple Aztec Empire mustering 200.000 men for their couse, it would be interesting to see what 10.000 strong European army would do.