WI: Heraclius Fled to Carthage

All very good and insightful points. If the Franks went on to be a power like in OTL, would it be possible for a conquest of large swathes of Iberia as there would be no Umayyads to halt the Franks?
It might be attempted, at least to treat Gothia as part of the Frankish "outer sphere" as was North Italy, meaning a predatory view.
It's basically what king Gontran (Guntramm) tried to do, unsuccessfully, in 585 then in 588-589 during his campaign in Gothic Gaul.
While Merovingians didn't took a role into the revolt of the self-proclaimed "Eastern Kingdom" (roughly everything between Ebre and Rhone) led by Hilderic of Nimes, and the bishop Gumihld; then by Paul; it was supported by the patrices of Aquitaine IOTL. Depending how it unfolds for Merovingians after Dagobert, I don't see any good reason why they couldn't use the opportunity as they did with Sisenand in 632, and in this case to have not as much a protectorate but an endebted king at their borders or, on the other hand, to use the opportunity to takeover the province of Narbonne.

Anything more, however would be difficult IMO. While you had unifying tendencies, Merovingians ruled over a decentralized regnum roughly separated into three sub-kingdoms whom potentes wanted to have directly access to a king. Merovingians overall managed to prevent being overextended, not as much as a particular policy than dealing with the situation as it went, and several distinct situations outside Francia proper (from Aquitaine and Provence being largely controlled, to entities such as Gascony or Bavaria being largely autonomous). meaning that conquering large territories would be problematic on the short term, especially against Christian kingdoms (giving the stress put on the piety of Merovingian kingship).
Eventually, Vascons would be more of an immediate problem in the region, and possibilities in North Sea and Central Europe maybe more open.

I could see then sort of protectorate over the N-E of the peninsula if everything goes well. Which, of course, wouldn't be a geopolitical detail, and might be reminiscent of the Carolingian kingdom of Aquitaine in expense.
On the other hand, it might be limited to taking over the region between Rhone and Pyrenees, or even failing to get that at worst.

Eventually, and interestingly, it depends a lot from what Romans could do and their relation with Goths. If they attempt to get back at Spania, then it might launch another strike of opportunity would it be only to preserve control of Northern-Western African coast.
I'm not convinced, however, that Romans would see a Frankish takeover (even if, you already know, I'm not seeing Franks outright conquering parts of Spain at this point) of "large swathes" with a favorable eye and might be worried enough to favor Goths then with naval support and supply them.

Could we even get Sergius (or his successor) assuming the government himself? Could Constantinople and the parts of Asia Minor still in Byzantine hands become an eastern version of the Papal States?
While I could very well see the Patriarch of Constantinople assuming sort of a transitional government or regency, I'm really unsure it could turn into a de facto (or even less de jure) ecclesiastical state. Constantinople's political customs, as well as the political ideology supporting them, was very much into maintaining the idea of the Roman state as a monarchical republic.
So, I'd say the proclamation of an emperor to succeed Hercalius in Constantinople is very likely on this perspective.
 
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