WI: Henry VIII dies before 1520

If Henry were to die before 1520, would the young Princess Mary ascend the throne as Queen Mary of England? What complications might arise from Henry VIII dying so young and leaving a young daughter in his place? Who would likely be involved in the resulting regency?

She's still betrothed to the Dauphin at this time. But I can't imagine that the English would allow that marriage to go through if she were their young queen instead of merely a princess. Would King Francis instead offer his younger son the Duke of Orleans in his eldest's place? Catherine herself would want for Mary to marry Charles V but I don't think the English would approve of that idea for the same reason that they wouldn't be keen on the Dauphin. At the very least the Duke of Orleans as a second son wouldn't be expected to acquire the French throne but it would also leave a possibility for such a thing happening if his elder brother were to die as young as he did iOTL.

Portugal does also have Infante Duarte who would only be a year older than Mary herself. And as the youngest son of the Portuguese king he wouldn't be expected to inherit the throne. If his eldest sibling's marry as they did iOTL then Mary marrying Duarte would bring England ties to Portugal, Spain and the Holy Roman Empire through his family.

Which would be seen as more preferable in court? A pro-French alliance and marriage or a Portuguese match with Imperial and Spanish ties?
 
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I think there is very good possibility that civil war would break out. Remember the adult Mary was the first real queen regnant of England. There is good chance they might not accepted her with three adult males of royal descent alive.
Henry Courtenay, 1st Marquess of Exeter 1498 2nd heir general after Princess Elizabeth of York's line
Thomas Manners 1st Earl of Rutland, mother Anne St Leger, grandmother Anne of York
Richard de la Pole Heir General to the Heir Designate of Richard III, Heir General to Elizabeth of York who definitely had royal ambition.

Scotland might of tried to press James V's claim but he would of been 8, but by tradition he was the nearest male relative or royal descent and would of had the best claim, except possibly Richard de la Pole's claim to be the heir to Richard III. And if you go wild maybe even Charles Somerset would of tried, as possibly the senior Beaufort heir, even though he was only a legitimized bastard.
 
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Katherine will have all contenders in custody, bribed with promises of power and profit. (She leaves out the power and profit will be Mary's). She gets the Dukes of Suffolk (who is married to the Dowager Queen of France, Mary at this time) and Norfolk to help and then will break the betrothal and wait for a more suitable nationality to make an offer.
 
I find that even less likely. Another queen regent for a child? The last one was absolutely hated, and it went against tradition anyways. If she tried to do that she most likely would of basically guaranteed her daughter being usurped, I doubt she was that stupid, she would of tried to use proxies.
 
Katherine would not be a public regent, she'd be more the behind the scenes (she was more savvy than Henry gave her credit for); Suffolk and Norfolk would be the chief regents until she came of age, along with Thomas More and a religious figure (not Wolsey) and a few others from the nobility rolls - maybe one or more of the king material you proposed. Katherine's public role would be the eternal widow, mourning her much-loved husband. She would be the model of widowhood perfection, and unable to leave her daughter because she reminds her so of Henry.....
 
What about Mary marrying Reginald Pole.

Catherine of Aragon is, at the very least, gonna want some form or royalty for her Queenly daughter. Her mother married to join two crowns, so I could see her aiming for a James V of Scotland/Mary I of England marriage, if just to emulate that. If not that, then Mary is going to get a 2nd son or an independent nobleman of some kind. Catherine is one for prestige, and Reginald Pole doesn't provide that on his own.
 
Richard de la Pole Heir General to the Heir Designate of Richard III, Heir General to Elizabeth of York who definitely had royal ambition.

Whilst the Yorkist cause is dear to my heart I'm not sure Richard de la Pole really has a chance- he's been in exile on the continent for 20 yrs, which might make it difficult to draw on much support in England, and if the French or Imperials are angling for a marriage to Mary they won't be offering him public support as that might scuttle marriage negotiations.

Has Richard befriended Francis yet?

Catherine of Aragon is, at the very least, gonna want some form or royalty for her Queenly daughter. Her mother married to join two crowns, so I could see her aiming for a James V of Scotland/Mary I of England marriage, if just to emulate that. If not that, then Mary is going to get a 2nd son or an independent nobleman of some kind. Catherine is one for prestige, and Reginald Pole doesn't provide that on his own.

And the fact that Henry's dying early might mean that Mary isn't as closely connected/grateful/whatever to the Poles. IOTL the marriage suggestions came after the Poles had proved their worth by staying devotedly loyal to Mary (and Catherine), whereas in this scenario I suppose much more of the nobility will have remained friendly to Mary (and Catherine).
 
What about Francis I after the death of Claude..the children of Mary and Francis I won't inherit the throne of France since the children of Claude and Francis are ahead..
 
Ok so, here's a scenario:

In 1519, Henry VIII dies after a tragic jousting accident, leaving a 3 year old daughter as his heir. His wife of 10 years, Catherine of Aragon, immediately brought her child to court and had her coronated as Mary I of England, Lady of Ireland. Thus, the final monarch to bear the Tudor name would begin her reign. A regency council was formed to rule until the Queen of England was of a suitable age. Although officially seperate from the regency council, Catherine of Aragon would find that she was not without influence.

The three main leaders of the council were the Dukes of Buckingham, Norfolk, and Suffolk, each of whom believed that they were entitled to head the council for various reasons. Buckingham would cite his "highborn blood" as his main reason, and would even offer to set aside his wife to marry the Queen Mother of England, if she willed it. Catherine of Aragon would politely decline the offer, and in private spoke of the rudeness of such an offer. She would, of course, never remarry and was the picture of a perfect, proper widow.

The next member of the council was the Duke of Norfolk. His position was simple, he was the eldest, had the most experience due to that and was the best positioned to help rule. He also pointed out to Buckingham, when blood was mentioned, that his son had married one of Edward IV's daughters (forgetting to elaborate that she died childless) and he held two prime positions within the government, due to his success previously.

The final member was the Duke of Suffolk, the charming Charles Brandon. His position was simply to do the best he could and that, as the husband to the Queen's aunt and (in his mind) heir, he should take the reigns of government. Brandon would also cite his close relationship with the dead King of England and his popularity with the court.

This would all grow into a fight for the Regency, boiling over in 1522, when the Duke of Buckingham announced that he was to take over the regency. He also announced that the Queen, who at this point was still loosely attached to the Dauphin, as the betrothal between the two children was delicately broken by Sir Thomas Boleyn (who would grow more important to the Regency later), would be marrying his grandson, the recently born Edward Stafford. Of course, both the regency council and Catherine of Aragon have a lot to say about that, and thus war begins. Buckingham really has no hope of winning this fight, and thus chooses to go down in battle, leaving his family to pick up the pieces. The title of Duke of Buckingham is stripped from them, and the council deems that his position will remain vacant.

This leaves Norfolk and Suffolk, along with a more active Thomas Wolsey. Wolsey, initially a lower profile in the council, having found them less receptive to him than Henry VIII of England was, now finds himself placed as a peacekeeper. He immediately looks to settle the council and actually seeks to include Catherine in the decisions more actively, hoping to use her as leverage later. Thus, when in 1523, after the Anglo/French marriage between Mary I of England and Francis, Dauphin of France is ended, he suggests a match between Mary and the King of France's second son, the Queen Mother is less vocally against it than expected. Thus, Mary is for a time betrothed to the Duke of Orleans.

In 1530, after his wife dies and he is left with two daughters and a son, Charles Brandon suggests that he marry the Queen Mother, or possibly the Queen herself, who is now of an age. He is quickly shot down and in 1532 marries granddaughter of the Duke of Norfolk, Mary Howard. Instead, in 1531, the betrothal between Mary I of England and Henri, Duc d'Orleans is ended and instead Mary is betrothed to James V of Scotland, a match to be made when she turns 16. A secret plan hatched between Catherine of Aragon and Thomas Howard, the son of the former regent who rose to his seat in 1524, around 1527, they sent his brother-in-law, Thomas Boleyn, to begin negotiations. Thus, as Catherine envisoned, he daughter would be able to join the British Isles together, which after marrying the Holy Roman Emperor or a Spanish Infante was the best match she could have hoped for. The marriage would go on to produce 4 living children, two sons and two daughters, across 7 pregnancies.

Mary I of England, Lady of Ireland (b.1516: d.1553) m. James V of Scotland (b.1512: d.1559) (a)

1a) Margaret Stewart, Princess of England (b.1535: d.1536)

2a) Henry IX of England and Ireland, I of Scotland (b.1537: d.1599) m. Eleanor of Austria (b.1534: d.1589) (a)

1a) Margaret Stewart, Princess of England (b.1555)

2a) Mary Stewart, Princess of England (b.1557)

3a) Catherine Stewart, Princess of England (b.1558)

4a) Stillborn Son (c.1559)

5a) Charles I of England, Ireland and Scotland (b.1562)

6a) Stillborn Daughter (b.1565)

7a) Magdalena Stewart, Princess of England (b.1567)

8a) Stillborn Son (c.1570)​

3a) Miscarriage (c.1538)

4a) Catherine Stewart, Princess of England (b.1541: d.1574) m. Philip II of Spain (b.1527: d.1598) (a)

1a) Isabella Clara Eugenia von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1557)

2a) Miscarriage (c.1558)

3a) Margaret von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1560)

4a) Maria von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1562: d.1566)

5a) Stillborn Son (c.1564)

6a) Philip von Hapsburg, Prince of Asturias (b.1566: d.1580)

7a) Joanna von Hapsburg, Infanta of Spain (b.1569)

8a) Juan III of Spain (b.1570)

9a) Miscarriage (c.1572)​

5a) Charles Stewart, Duke of York and Albany (b.1543: d.1561) m. Christine of Hesse (b.1543: d.1604) (a)

1a) Catherine Stewart of York (b.1560)​

6a) Stillborn Son (c.1545)

7a) Eleanor Stewart, Princess of England (b.1548: d.1572) m. Charles III, Duke of Lorraine (b.1543: d.1608) (a)

1a) Charles of Lorraine (b.1566: d.1566)

2a) Marie of Lorraine (b.1569)

3a) Francis II, Duke of Lorraine (b.1570)​
 
In 1520, there was only one person who would most likely marry Mary - he was English, he was male, and he was a Tudor (technically) - Lord Henry Brandon, Earl of Lincoln, eldest son of Charles Brandon, Duke of Suffolk and Henry VIII's younger sister, Mary. It wouldn't be as prestigious as a match to James of Scots (who I'm sure there are supporters for at court), but it would keep England safely neither independent rather than a satellite of either France (which CoA isn't going to want) or the Habsburgs (which CoA is going to want). The queen mother and the duke of Suffolk (who was forced with wifey dear to push a pro-French policy at the Tudor court in order that the installments of her returned dowry didn't stop being paid) will make a balancing act between France/Empire.

That said, the French were trying to get de la Pole married to Princess Dorothea of Denmark (OTL duchess of Prussia) in order to stir up trouble in England. He died at Pavia, before the marriage went through.
 
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The son of an 'upstart'? Yeah, that will stop a civil war (not). An adult King might wed one of his subjects, but a Queen Regnant MUST have someone who will not be dividing the nobility. Especially since she is so young when she takes the throne. A foreign-born candidate does that. And I like that she waits until she's 16 to wed. She was a slower bloomer than her (now fictional) half-sister was.
 
The problem with yet another Civil War are that England risk Spanish-"German" intervention. I would imagine the threat of Charles V arriving with his armies, would serve to keep the nobility united in finding a compromise.
 
It's far more likely that Mary marries either James V of Scotland or Henri, duc de Orleans rather than either Reginald de la Pole or even Henry Brandon. Francis would likely drop Pole after Henry's death due to the rather high chance of having one of his own sons on the English throne. He would probably also be extremely eager to marry either the Dauphin or the duc de Orleans to the little Queen in order to take England out of Spain's sphere and prevent Spain from falling into the Holy Roman Empire's sphere.

I can't see Francis being overly upset about James V marrying Mary though. After all, France still has the Auld Alliance with Scotland at this time and it would bring England slightly closer into France's sphere of influence.

Charles Brandon offering his own son might actually alienate Catherine from him. She would not approve of such a suggestion and neither would the others in the regency.
 
Katherine would not be a public regent, she'd be more the behind the scenes (she was more savvy than Henry gave her credit for); Suffolk and Norfolk would be the chief regents until she came of age, along with Thomas More and a religious figure (not Wolsey) and a few others from the nobility rolls - maybe one or more of the king material you proposed. Katherine's public role would be the eternal widow, mourning her much-loved husband. She would be the model of widowhood perfection, and unable to leave her daughter because she reminds her so of Henry.....

Catherine would not have allowed anyone else to be Regent for her child. Catherine was an intelligent and confident in her own capabilities.

Catherine served as Regent on several occasions for Henry VIII when he was fighting wars in France and by all accounts was a capable Regent.

Catherine's mother was a Queen Regnant, Catherine believed at her very core that women could govern, her own mother was considered one of the most gifted rulers in Europe of the period *despite* being a woman, which is why Catherine struggled to understand why her husband was so certain that their daughter Mary could not become Queen.

Catherine was also incredibly popular, in contrast to previous Queens Consorts such as Margaret of Anjou who acted as Regent for their child.
 
Catherine would not have allowed anyone else to be Regent for her child. Catherine was an intelligent and confident in her own capabilities.

Catherine served as Regent on several occasions for Henry VIII when he was fighting wars in France and by all accounts was a capable Regent.

Catherine's mother was a Queen Regnant, Catherine believed at her very core that women could govern, her own mother was considered one of the most gifted rulers in Europe of the period *despite* being a woman, which is why Catherine struggled to understand why her husband was so certain that their daughter Mary could not become Queen.

Catherine was also incredibly popular, in contrast to previous Queens Consorts such as Margaret of Anjou who acted as Regent for their child.
A lot of queen consorts were regent while their husbands were away but I can only think of two who were regents of a minor monarch off the top of my head. Margaret of Anjou and Isabella of France. One was hated, the other committed High Treason, deposed her husband, and very possibly a Regicide (killed her husband the king). They were both very intelligent and gifted women, but...
I do not think the Nobility would stand for another queen regent for a minor. They were to scarred from the ones from the past. She also had no legal standing to demand it even if the king did name her in his will, and to try insist would invite civil war for the regency if not the crown, to try and block a regency council would of invited civil war. She wanted her daughter on the throne, which this would lessen the chances.
 
Katherine of Aragon would be the 'power behind the regency', no doubt, but she knows the English well enough and gets along well enough with Catholic Norfolk and bro-in-law Suffolk for them to be its public faces. Buckingham is going to piss everyone off and will eventually be executed or killed trying to start an uprising. He's one of the people of no tact or intelligence; he thought the bloodline would carry him along....
 
I do think that Katherine would end up involved in the regency. Who among the members of the regency would listen to the Dowager Queen?

Katherine was however incredibly popular with the people and the nobility especially after James IV's invasion of England. I'm not sure that anyone would protest too heavily if she were visibly involved with her young daughter's regency.

With her mother being the sole influence in her life how would Mary Tudor turn out here?
 
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