WI Henry VII had been overthrown

This basically has to happen before Henry VII gets his 'heir and a spare' in 1491, unless the POD is that he's infertile or something. This rules out the Duke of Buckingham, the Countess of Salisbury's sons and the Earls of Devon on age grounds, so the only adult men who would claim the throne would be the Earl of Warwick (still locked up in the Tower) or, far more realistically, the de la Poles. Furthermore, Edmund de la Pole seems to have been a bit of an idiot, and OTL didn't dare rebel: he lived in England until 1501 without too much suspicion coming his way.

This leaves the whole John de la Pole/Lambert Simnel/Stoke Field thing as the last best chance the Yorkists had (I exclude the Lancastrians because they were all either A) foreign monarchs; or B) loyal to the Tudors, eg Ralph Neville, 3rd Earl of Westmorland). Stoke Field was weighted heavily in favour of Henry VII - he had slightly more men, had more experienced commanders, and was less dependent on foreign mercenaries. But say the Battle goes the other way, which is quite plausible. Arthur, Prince of Wales, has already been born, so even if Henry VII dies on the battlefield, his supporters have got their very own 'King Arthur' to hawk in every marketplace. If they are then defeated and Arthur goes abroad, or even dies, he will be comparable to King Sebastian of Portugal in terms of command over the imagination.

If Henry VII survives, well, he already has the loyalty of most nobles, and everyone is pissed that the War of the Roses simply WILL NOT END. And who has Simnel got on his side? Lincoln (an untried courtier), some Irish blokes and a German mercenary captain. That isn't the kind of line-up that inspires support from Joe Peasant. Also, Lincoln's motives are unclear. If he puts Simnel on the throne, will he do a Richard III on the real Warwick? What's in it for him if either Real!Warwick or Fake!Warwick get the throne, anyway? I suspect he'd want the throne for himself - two of his brothers certainly did, when there were arguably better claimants knocking about.

So yeah, I'd say you'd get King John II, with two or three child murders to his name and an inauspicious name. After him, either a son, a brother, or one of the other claimants riding a wave of righteous indignation in 1490 or so.
 
There's also Perkin Warbeck as an option. He had significant foreign support at times, which would complicate things. He never managed to organize a serious enough army to threaten the crown, but one could imagine a scenario where e.g. the Scots decide to back him more strongly.

You still have Arthur running around, but also OTL Henry VII and various daughters, so the Lancastrian claim won't be dead, and if Warbeck seems too deeply in hock to foreigners, then that might provide a base of support for another Lancastrian comeback. Alternatively, the Lancastrians could go the way of the OTL post-Stoke Yorkists/post-Culloden Jacobites, and slowly fade to irrelevance.
 
I believe some historians feel Henry's authority was on the verge of collapsing when he died. Have something kill off Henry VIII (the only one of his three sons still living by that point) and Henry VII live a little longer, and I think Maximilian might end up being tempted by uprisings against his tax policies to try and make de la Pole King (or Buckingham might want to try his luck).
 
I agree that Stoke Field is the best PoD, both in timing and probability (other than Henry catches random illness and dies before Arthur is born).

If Henry dies, especially if Oxford and Jasper Tudor go down too, then the Tudor faction are in a bit of a tight spot. While Arthur existing is useful, it's not that helpful. Edward IV reigned for eight years with Henry VI in the tower and Edward of Westminster wandering around Europe with his mother. Without Warwick's defection to their cause, they didn't stand a chance of pulling off the readeption.

What Lincoln does with his success is a slightly different question. He's now got the real Warwick, and a fake Warwick on his hands. While he himself was recognised as Richard III's heir, he's had one of these boys crowned in Dublin, so he's in a bit of a tricky situation...
 
Probably kills Simnel and uses Warwick as a puppet.
Probably. Especially if the line about geese and capon means he was truly insensible.

Your suggestion of using one of the tax riots - either the Cornish one or the Yorkshire one in which Percy was killed - are probably the best bets after Henry wins Stoke.
 
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