What if, sometime after Humphrey of Glouchester's wife Eleanor has been tried and convicted of witchcraft but prior to the young king's marriage to Margaret of Anjou, Henry VI had died? At this time, the only other remaining descendant of Henry IV left alive is Gloucester himself, and (if OTL is any indication) he's not much longer for this world.

How is the royal succession in England determined from here? And how is history altered?
 
Hadn't Humphrey Duke of Gloucester been imprisonsed by Cardinal Henry Beaufort around this time. If he had I'm not sure he would have had enough support to take the throne, especially considering he had no children.

I wonder if York may support Gloucester knowing he would be heir to the throne from Gloucester and also considering Gloucester doesn't like the Beauforts leading to a Wars of the Roses which is Gloucester and soon to be York vs the Beauforts if they try and claim the throne.
 

VVD0D95

Banned
Hadn't Humphrey Duke of Gloucester been imprisonsed by Cardinal Henry Beaufort around this time. If he had I'm not sure he would have had enough support to take the throne, especially considering he had no children.

I wonder if York may support Gloucester knowing he would be heir to the throne from Gloucester and also considering Gloucester doesn't like the Beauforts leading to a Wars of the Roses which is Gloucester and soon to be York vs the Beauforts if they try and claim the throne.
Would the Beaufort have enough legs to stand on to try and claim t he throne though? Everyone knows they’re illegitimate and Henry IV didn’t place them back in to the succession when he took the throne
 
Would the Beaufort have enough legs to stand on to try and claim t he throne though? Everyone knows they’re illegitimate and Henry IV didn’t place them back in to the succession when he took the throne

That is very true. But the Beauforts had significant influence over Henry VI and held a lot of the high offices in the country. Also a significant proportion of nobles did not like Richard of York.

Another thing to remember is that two strong allies of Henry VI would still be alive in this situation, William De La Pole Duke of Suffolk and Henry Beauchamp Duke of Warwick. Warwick in particular if he sided with the Beauforts could tip the balance in their favour, or at least give them the power to claim the throne.
 

VVD0D95

Banned
That is very true. But the Beauforts had significant influence over Henry VI and held a lot of the high offices in the country. Also a significant proportion of nobles did not like Richard of York.

Another thing to remember is that two strong allies of Henry VI would still be alive in this situation, William De La Pole Duke of Suffolk and Henry Beauchamp Duke of Warwick. Warwick in particular if he sided with the Beauforts could tip the balance in their favour, or at least give them the power to claim the throne.
That’s true and If the Beaufort are smart they’d get parliament to pass a new act declaring them Humphrey heir
 
I wonder if York may support Gloucester knowing he would be heir to the throne from Gloucester and also considering Gloucester doesn't like the Beauforts leading to a Wars of the Roses which is Gloucester and soon to be York vs the Beauforts if they try and claim the throne.
Would the Beaufort have enough legs to stand on to try and claim t he throne though? Everyone knows they’re illegitimate and Henry IV didn’t place them back in to the succession when he took the throne
What makes this possible power struggle really nuts is that England is still neck deep in France at this point.
 
That’s true and If the Beaufort are smart they’d get parliament to pass a new act declaring them Humphrey heir

The only thing is, when Humphrey becomes King, for his brief rule he will likely remove the Beauforts and all of Henry VI's allies from positions of influence and grant those positions to York and his crew. This means when Humphrey dies a war will almost certainly break out York will hold the position of high office.

Also the Hundred Years War was still going on in this scenario which is another thing to consider?

Maybe Humphrey tries to follow in his brother footsteps and launch an invasion to attempt one final hurrah in France?
 
Also the Hundred Years War was still going on in this scenario which is another thing to consider?

Maybe Humphrey tries to follow in his brother footsteps and launch an invasion to attempt one final hurrah in France?
Humphrey was opposed to the Treaty of Tours OTL; that said, English France was mostly confined to Normandy and a slice of Gascony by this point (IIANM), and I'm not sure they could even manage any kind of offensive, even if they wanted to.
 

VVD0D95

Banned
The only thing is, when Humphrey becomes King, for his brief rule he will likely remove the Beauforts and all of Henry VI's allies from positions of influence and grant those positions to York and his crew. This means when Humphrey dies a war will almost certainly break out York will hold the position of high office.

Also the Hundred Years War was still going on in this scenario which is another thing to consider?

Maybe Humphrey tries to follow in his brother footsteps and launch an invasion to attempt one final hurrah in France?
That’s true, which to me suggests he’s going to be looking for a new wife ASAP
 
So - how do we see this dynastic struggle playing out? More important than who wins, how long does it last and how far back is England set compared with OTL’s War of the Roses?
 

VVD0D95

Banned
So - how do we see this dynastic struggle playing out? More important than who wins, how long does it last and how far back is England set compared with OTL’s War of the Roses?
I mean I still think Humphrey would marry again, he kinda has to no?

and I’m not sure they’d be set back too badly. The succession is pretty clear, and York this time actually has the benefit of being the direct heir.
 
I mean I still think Humphrey would marry again, he kinda has to no?
Well his convicted wife is still alive at this time, and he is still the king; so I’d say it depends on how he sincerely felt about her. Plus...
The succession is pretty clear, and York this time actually has the benefit of being the direct heir.
He has the option of just naming a powerful lord, like York, as his heir, which could both shore up his reign and actually secure the succession more than trying a son would.

The only question that leaves is what will Somerset (and maybe Suffolk) have to say about all this?

And if there is indeed no truly significant power struggle for the English throne following H6 dying early, then by far the biggest effect is that France doesn’t get the huge opening that Truce of Tours gave them. England, and English France, is still in a precarious position, far too strained circa 1444 to try anything like an invasion. So the question is, once the war heat up again - and I think I’m safe in assuming it will - how does the conflict proceed compared with OTL?
 

VVD0D95

Banned
Well his convicted wife is still alive at this time, and he is still the king; so I’d say it depends on how he sincerely felt about her. Plus...

He has the option of just naming a powerful lord, like York, as his heir, which could both shore up his reign and actually secure the succession more than trying a son would.

The only question that leaves is what will Somerset (and maybe Suffolk) have to say about all this?

And if there is indeed no truly significant power struggle for the English throne following H6 dying early, then by far the biggest effect is that France doesn’t get the huge opening that Truce of Tours gave them. England, and English France, is still in a precarious position, far too strained circa 1444 to try anything like an invasion. So the question is, once the war heat up again - and I think I’m safe in assuming it will - how does the conflict proceed compared with OTL?
Hmm this is true and would Humphrey need to name York his heir? Wasn’t the succession pretty clear?
And hmm I can’t see any result but an eventual French victory, England wasn’t financially strong enough to keep,going in time after time, it will be delayed though due to York beinf a better manager and commander than Henry VI was
 
And hmm I can’t see any result but an eventual French victory, England wasn’t financially strong enough to keep,going in time after time, it will be delayed though due to York beinf a better manager and commander than Henry VI was
Yeah but just saying “the French still eventually win” doesn’t tell us much; the more interesting question is how this plays out in the shorter term. In OTL, once the French broke the truce in 1449, the English were so underprepared that they were effectively driven from the continent within five years.

So the first question is, what are both sides doing roughly 1444 to 1449? If the English are somehow outmaneuvered into doing something reckless, they may not fare much better than OTL; but if Glouchester and York focus, for the time being, on rebuilding their position, they might be in a position, by 1450, to either effectively defend against Charles’ attack, or even launch their own invasion (as a first strike or countermeasure). If it’s the latter, I honestly have no idea what would happen next.
 
Well his convicted wife is still alive at this time, and he is still the king; so I’d say it depends on how he sincerely felt about her. Plus...

He has the option of just naming a powerful lord, like York, as his heir, which could both shore up his reign and actually secure the succession more than trying a son would.

The only question that leaves is what will Somerset (and maybe Suffolk) have to say about all this?

And if there is indeed no truly significant power struggle for the English throne following H6 dying early, then by far the biggest effect is that France doesn’t get the huge opening that Truce of Tours gave them. England, and English France, is still in a precarious position, far too strained circa 1444 to try anything like an invasion. So the question is, once the war heat up again - and I think I’m safe in assuming it will - how does the conflict proceed compared with OTL?

Considering York and Somerset had a masssive rivalry I highly doubt Somerset will sit idly by and let York gain complete control. At the same time I'm not sure that Somerset has enough power or influence to start a succession war to claim the throne.
 
Yeah but just saying “the French still eventually win” doesn’t tell us much; the more interesting question is how this plays out in the shorter term. In OTL, once the French broke the truce in 1449, the English were so underprepared that they were effectively driven from the continent within five years.

So the first question is, what are both sides doing roughly 1444 to 1449? If the English are somehow outmaneuvered into doing something reckless, they may not fare much better than OTL; but if Glouchester and York focus, for the time being, on rebuilding their position, they might be in a position, by 1450, to either effectively defend against Charles’ attack, or even launch their own invasion (as a first strike or countermeasure). If it’s the latter, I honestly have no idea what would happen next.

Gloucester was rather old at that point but had been a decent military commander back when he was younger. Plus York was certainly a capable military commander so the English may be left in a slightly better position than they were in the OTL if their counterinvasion of France has success.

The only issue will be is what is going on back in England. If Somerset and Suffolk are causing trouble then you can bet that particularly York will be rushing back to England in a flash to secure his position as heir to the throne.
 
Hmm this is true and would Humphrey need to name York his heir? Wasn’t the succession pretty clear?
The only issue will be is what is going on back in England. If Somerset and Suffolk are causing trouble then you can bet that particularly York will be rushing back to England in a flash to secure his position as heir to the throne.
Related question - where’s Exeter in all this? Or Portugal for that matter?
 
Related question - where’s Exeter in all this? Or Portugal for that matter?

That's a really good question about Exeter. I've just looked up and Exter didn't get his Duchy Back until 1443/44 which is after Henry VI has died in this scenario meaning I'm not even sure he is even going to get his Duchy back reduing his influence.

Another wildcard is Henry Beauchamp Duke of Warwick. He was great friends with Henry VI in OTL as well as being the premier non-royal duke of the realm. He may have significant influence over the succession after Henry's death but considering there is no evidence that he was good friends with the Beauforts and Humphrey is Henry's uncle I reckon he wouldn't go against Humphrey. As he dies in OTL in 1446 a year before Humphrey dies he won't be able to impact the succession after Humphrey's death as Humphrey died a year later unless he lives longer in TTL.

There is also the question of what the Staffords would be doing in this scenario?

And there is also the question of Henry VI's Tudor half brothers, although they are likely to young to play any significant role?

Then there is also the fact when Henry Beauchamp dies, Somerset challenged Richard Neville to the inheritance of Henry Beauchamps estates. This will likely further incite Somerset to war or at least consider it as Richard Neville (Wariwck) is obviously firmly in York's Camp.
 
There is also the question of what the Staffords would be doing in this scenario?

And there is also the question of Henry VI's Tudor half brothers, although they are likely to young to play any significant role?
Well Humphrey Stafford is married to Salisbury’s sister, so I imagine he’ll side with the Nevilles and therefore York. As to Owen Tudor (and it’s just him, since his sons are still minors as of the PoD), I’d assume he’d be loyal to Humphrey at least. (Then again, he’s married to a Valois...)
That's a really good question about Exeter. I've just looked up and Exter didn't get his Duchy Back until 1443/44 which is after Henry VI has died in this scenario meaning I'm not even sure he is even going to get his Duchy back reduing his influence.
Alternatively, if Exeter feels he is being cheated of his inheritance, he’s be even more likely to throw in his lot with Somerset, adding, if nothing else, more legitimacy to the Beaufort cause; by contrast, if Humphrey or York buy off Exeter’s loyalty by restoring his dukedom, his lack of support certainly won’t help Somerset’s image.
Another wildcard is Henry Beauchamp Duke of Warwick. He was great friends with Henry VI in OTL as well as being the premier non-royal duke of the realm. He may have significant influence over the succession after Henry's death but considering there is no evidence that he was good friends with the Beauforts and Humphrey is Henry's uncle I reckon he wouldn't go against Humphrey. As he dies in OTL in 1446 a year before Humphrey dies he won't be able to impact the succession after Humphrey's death as Humphrey died a year later unless he lives longer in TTL.

Then there is also the fact when Henry Beauchamp dies, Somerset challenged Richard Neville to the inheritance of Henry Beauchamps estates. This will likely further incite Somerset to war or at least consider it as Richard Neville (Wariwck) is obviously firmly in York's Camp.
It sounds like Somerset, if nothing else, will have a huge chip on his shoulder; on the one hand, he may have little support in England to do anything about it, but on the other, the ongoing war in France with possessions in Normandy and Gascony, and the option of agreeing to
non-aggression with the Valois (so that the French focus their energies elsewhere), mean that he has more opportunities to create mischief.
 
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