WI: Henry Tudor, King of Spain

I mean OTL king Henry VIII of England to be clear. How could this happen? I see two options-in both of them Arthur Tudor, Prince of Wales need to survive to adulthood and preferably left heir (s).
1) Miguel da Paz (born1498), grandson of Catholic Monarchs-queen Isabella of Castille and king Ferdinand of Aragon is born as girl (she will be named Isabella propably, after her mother, lets call her Isabella da Paz, to avoid confusion with other Isabellas). Her mother, princess Isabella, oldest daughter of Catholic Monarchs dies in childbirth like in OTL and baby's father-Manuel of Portugal married again-to his first wife's younger sister Mary, like IOTL and have at least one surviving son with her. In such case his son (call him John) will succeed him on Portuguese throne, but Isabella da Paz would have better claims to Castilian and Aragonese crowns than John, being descendant of Catholic Monarchs oldest daughter. So after death of queen Isabella I in 1504 Isabella da Paz became queen of Castille as Isabella II. Of course under regency of her grandfather Ferdinand. At the time of Ferdinand's death in 1516 she will be 18 years old and propably married. If Ferdinand failed to produce male heir from second marriage like OTL she will take Aragonese Crown as well. So what if by this time she was married to Henry? That will not be first Iberian marriage of Tudor prince because in this TL aunt of Isabella II, Catherine of Aragon is wife of Arthur Tudor. I think Henry-Isabella marriage is possible-Ferdinand should like that idea because it would strenghten alliance with England against France. What is your opinion?
And about second option-I
will present it later.
 
Simplified genealogy for variant 1:
Ferdinand of Aragon (1452-1516)
married:
Isabella of Castille (1451-1504
Issue:
* Isabella (1470-1498)
married:
Manuel Aviz, king of Portugal
Issue:
  • Isabella II (born 1498) married: Henry Tudor (born 1491)
*John (1478-1497)
*Joanna (born 1479)
married:
Philipp Habsburg, lord od the Netherlands
*Maria (born 1482)
married:
Manuel Aviz, king of Portugal
Issue:
  • John III king of Portugal
*Catherine (born 1485)
married:
Arthur Tudor, king of England (born 1486)

Names in italics indicate people who didn't existed in OTL (altough alternate John III have the same name and parents as OTL John III of Portugal, he was born after POD so he is slightly different person).
 
Now second scenario: 18 July 1501, Joanna the Mad, second daughter of Catholic Monarchs died giving birth to her third child-Isabella, at age 21. Her widowed husband Philipp Habsburg took another wife and has other children (including one surviving son) later, but they are not in line of succesion to Castilian and Aragonese crowns. In 1504 queen Isabella, Joanna's mother died, now the only son of Joanna and Philipp-4 years old Charles, known in our history as emperor Charles V is heir of Castilian crown. I'm not sure what could happen later-IOTL Philipp came to Castile after death of his mother in law to claim the throne iure uxoris. ATL his wife is dead so he doesn't have any rights to Castile. But I think he may came to Spain anyway with Charles to claim regency for himself and throne for his son, leaving his second wife as regent in Low Countries, and will be opposed by Ferdinand like in OTL. Say that Philipp fall sick and dies like IOTL, Charles stays in Spain and Ferdinand rules Castile as regent. Or is it more plausible that Charles stays in Netherlands? Anyway Charles is heir to both Isabella and Ferdinand and is expected to rule united Spain one day, but that day will never come...
But let's look for another child of Philipp and Joanna for a while-Eleanor, the oldest of siblings, born in 1498. What if she married Henry, not king of England ITTL but king's younger brother, to keep England in anti-French camp?
And then some nasty accident happen to young Charles and Eleanor now has the best claims to Spanish Crowns...
Question is-what time is the best for such accident? Just before Ferdinand's death? Or before Imperial election in HRE?
 
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