WI: Henry IV doesn't convert to Catholicism

He would eventually conquers Paris, but as the city was clearly pro-League, it wouldn't be done without blood (thinks Semaine Sanglante scale).

WIth the failures of Etats Generaux to resolve the crisis, Henri IV would have to run in a longer war that, with limited ressources, he couldn't win eventually against the Spanish and the League.

Now, as the League was divided and couldn't agree on a candidate, and the candidacy of Isabelle hardly doable, Henri would probably end by being converted anyway as a treaty clause.

The main difference would be that he would have ruled a really weakened kingdom, with likely territorial and religious concessions made to Spain : kiss goodbye Edict of Meaux (that was considered by Protestants as too limited), and some important provinces.
Aristocratic power would be likely reinforced, putting the situation in a pre-Francois Ier likeness.

EDIT : Admittedly you could have alternative candidacies that could be accepted if Henry IV refuses to convert (against his past behaviour, but if we're admitting he does not convert before Paris...).

- François de Bourbon-Conti. He's next on line, but suffers from a reputation of idiocy as he was deaf and stutterer. His loyalty to his cousin would make him suspect to Spanish, but he's the most likely candidate then.
- Henri de Bourbon-Condé is a no-go. Depsite being second on line, he's really young, barely recognized by others and the firm protestant line of his deceased father would probably make his candidacy hard to maintain.
- Charles de Bourbon-Soissons. Catholic prince, he fought alongside both Ligue and Royals. Having connexions and skills, he could have a chance if the sucession of Henri III is decided by Parliments or Etats Generaux. But being fourth (or third) on line, he would have still a farily limited chance : his best bet is the lassitude of french population and the reject of Spanish intervention (tough it could favour François de Bourbon-Conti as well, but it's less sure Spain would allow it).
 
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