WI Henry III of France isn't killed in 1589?

What could be the consequences for Frech Wars of Religion if Jacques Clément had failed to kill Henry III in 1589? If the king had lived for other 10 years (it seems tha Valois didn't have a great record of long lifespans) would it make the anti-League forces stronger? And would Henry of Navarre still convert to Catholicism if he isn't the king yet?
 
He was assassinated on the eve of preparing to attack and retake Paris. His assassination was quite brutal in the sense that his army essentially melted away and the capital wasn't retaken. The League is still going to remain powerful simply because Henry III was afraid of them, and that he openly accepted the King of Navarre as his heir, despite his Protestantism.

I don't see Henry of Navarre converting because there is no need, Henry III is going to accept him as heir anyways. He only did so under the influence of his Catholic mistress IOTL anyways, and even though he did become Catholic, many believed he was still following the Protestant religion.

Henry III was pretty weak though; he pandered to both the Protestants and the Catholics when possible. He attempted to extend toleration to the Protestants in 1576, but the Duke of Guise forced him to rescind the Edict. And although he did attempt to strip Henry of Navarre of his rights to the throne in 1584, it was not technically legal, as French Salic Law is quite fuzzy and hence why people debate it today in regards as to who the true King of France would be. He quickly joined forces with Henry of Navarre anyways, after he had the Duke of Guise and Cardinal of Guise murdered.

If he survives and takes Paris, we may see the King attempt to negotiate with the Leaguers, although his authority is all but shot. I can see them attempting to force Henry to name the Cardinal of Bourbon as his heir, although he dies in 1590. No doubt, the religious affairs will continue to flare up as long as Henry III lives. He just isn't as decisive as Henry of Navarre. I can't see them actually being able to push through anything and actually enforce it in such a climate.
 
I don't see Henry of Navarre converting because there is no need, Henry III is going to accept him as heir anyways. He only did so under the influence of his Catholic mistress IOTL anyways, and even though he did become Catholic, many believed he was still following the Protestant religion.

Hmm, so probably IOTL he never meets Gabrielle d'Estrées, and without her influence he never converts. Would his marriage with Margaret of Valois still be dissolved? Because if not, considering that Margaret was barren, it would make the succession in both France and Navarre even messier. Also, forget Marie de Medicis as queen of France and the political intrigues caused by her.

If he survives and takes Paris, we may see the King attempt to negotiate with the Leaguers, although his authority is all but shot. I can see them attempting to force Henry to name the Cardinal of Bourbon as his heir, although he dies in 1590. No doubt, the religious affairs will continue to flare up as long as Henry III lives. He just isn't as decisive as Henry of Navarre. I can't see them actually being able to push through anything and actually enforce it in such a climate.

So a longer civil war, probably going until the early 1600's. That isn't a good scenario for France.
 
Hmm, so probably IOTL he never meets Gabrielle d'Estrées, and without her influence he never converts. Would his marriage with Margaret of Valois still be dissolved? Because if not, considering that Margaret was barren, it would make the succession in both France and Navarre even messier. Also, forget Marie de Medicis as queen of France and the political intrigues caused by her.

Henry of Navarre didn't make Gabrielle his mistress until 1591. I suppose it's possible they could still meet, but butterflies could prevent it. The big reason he converted under her influence because it was the only way he was actually going to be able to extend his authority throughout France, "Paris is worth a mass." and all that. If Henry III is still alive, he has no real reason to convert. Henry of Navarre may convert later on down the line, as he was pragmatic regarding such issues, but I'm not sure.

His marriage to Margaret probably wouldn't be dissolved. Henry only appealed to the Pope because he had wanted to marry Gabrielle, who happened to die in the midst of childbirth. With his marriage annulled and his intended bride dead, he married Marie de Medicis, mostly because her dowry was large and would help French finances. Although he remains Protestant in the scenario, it would be difficult to arrange the dissolution of the marriage.
 
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