WI Henry II of France dies in 1545?

While reading about Charles de Valois, Duke of Orléans, I've found this information:

"In the autumn of 1545, Charles was on his way (with his brother, the Dauphin) to Boulogne, which was under siege. On 6 September, they came across a cluster of houses that had been emptied and sealed off "from the plague" -- probably a form of influenza. Stating that "no son of a King of France ever died of plague", Charles entered some of the infected houses with his brother [3]. Laughing, he slashed at bedding with his sword and started a pillow fight with some of his traveling companions. Stories have also been told of him (on a dare) lying down on one of the infected beds and rolling around on the bedding. Later that evening, after dining with his father and brother, he took suddenly ill, suffering from pain, a high fever, vomiting and shaking limbs. His brother rushed to his sickroom immediately, but was barred from entering, being physically restrained on three occasions."

So, as Henry entered the infected houses too, WI he had died from this illness along with Charles? His son Francis II was already born, being only one year old, but then Charles IX, Henry III and François, Duke of Anjou, wouldn't exist ITTL. How could it affect France?
 
The Wars of Religion are going to be much more nastier if they occur, that's for sure.

François Ier will die in 1547 or around then, leaving his three year old grandson as king with the young Catherine d'Medicis as Regent for her young son. The religious problems have not yet exploded onto the scene, but things will certainly be difficult -- the Guise are not quite as prominent, but still very important, and Antoine of Bourbon is still the first prince of the blood. the Dowager Dauphine is going to have be quite savvy. She may be able to lean on Marguerite of Navarre, François' Ier's sister, who was quite important for a time, but she died in 1549 so that doesn't help.

Catherine's position will no doubt be very weak, as she is becoming regent at a young age, without any of the savviness she developed during her short tenure as queen. She will quickly find herself under the wing of the Guises probably, simply because Antoine de Bourbon was quite ineffectual and often manipulated by others. Thus Marie will probably be forced to invite the Duke of Guise into the council and he would probably be pulling the strings behind the scenes, with her as figurehead. She might grow to resent this and will probably lean to the Bourbon faction at some point, but I definately see the earliest years of the rather long regency as being dominated by the Guises. They are simply more important and overshadow the Bourbonists whose leader was rather clueless at times.

The Italian wars may or may not continue. The Guises might attempt to use it as a way to bolster their popularity: they also had pretensions to the Kingdom of Naples via their Angevin blood, as late as 1557 the Duke of Guise marched an army into Italy to aid the Pope, but really seeking to conquer Naples from the Spanish. The Duke of Guise might attempt to use the French armies, not to conquer Milan, but to set up his own family in Naples. It probably would not be successful, but I'm not sure.

In the rest of the world, Mary in the Scotland may end up married to Edward VI. With the French destabilized with the early death of Henri II, the Mary of Guise might think it better to simply cave to Henry VIII's demands to marry the Scots Queen to his son and heir than attempt to oppose him without French support. A Guise dominated Regency might want to support the Scots, but if things are particularly nasty with Catherine scheming with Bourbons, it might not be possible.
 
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The Wars of Religion are going to be much more nastier if they occur, that's for sure.

François Ier will die in 1547 or around then, leaving his three year old grandson as king with the young Catherine d'Medicis as Regent for her young son. The religious problems have not yet exploded onto the scene, but things will certainly be difficult -- the Guise are not quite as prominent, but still very important, and Antoine of Bourbon is still the first prince of the blood. the Dowager Dauphine is going to have be quite savvy. She may be able to lean on Marguerite of Navarre, François' Ier's sister, who was quite important for a time, but she died in 1549 so that doesn't help.

Marie's position will no doubt be very weak, as she is becoming regent at a young age, without any of the savviness she developed during her short tenure as queen. She will quickly find herself under the wing of the Guises probably, simply because Antoine de Bourbon was quite ineffectual and often manipulated by others. Thus Marie will probably be forced to invite the Duke of Guise into the council and he would probably be pulling the strings behind the scenes, with her a figurehead. She might grow to resent this and will probably lean to the Bourbon faction at some point, but I definately see the earliest years as being dominated by the Guises. They are simply more important and overshadow the Bourbon faction whose leader was rather clueless at times.

The Italian wars may or may not continue. The Guises might attempt to use it as a way to bolster their popularity: they also had pretensions to the Kingdom of Naples via their Angevin blood, as late as 1557 the Duke of Guise marched an army into Italy to aid the Pope, but really seeking to conquer Naples from the Spanish. The Duke of Guise might attempt to use the French armies, not to conquer Milan, but to set up his own family in Naples. It probably would not be successful, but I'm not sure.

In the rest of the world, Mary in the Scotland may end up married to Edward VI. With the French destabilized with the early death of Henri II, the Mary of Guise might think it better to simply cave to Henry VIII's demands to marry the Scots Queen to his son and heir than attempt to oppose him without French support. A Guise dominated Regency might want to support the Scots, but if things are particularly nasty with Catherine scheming with Bourbons, it might not be possible.

Thanks Drake!:)

Other thing to consider is the succession of Francis II if he still dies young as IOTL. Assuming that Antoine of Bourbon becomes Anthony I of France in 1560 he wouldn't be king for a long time (he died in 1562 after all). It makes Henry of Navarre king (this time as Henry III) at the young age of nine. I wonder how much influence would his strongly Protestant mother Jeanne of Navarre would have in the government, and the conflict it would create with the Guises.
 
Thanks Drake!:)

Other thing to consider is the succession of Francis II if he still dies young as IOTL. Assuming that Antoine of Bourbon becomes Anthony I of France in 1560 he wouldn't be king for a long time (he died in 1562 after all). It makes Henry of Navarre king (this time as Henry III) at the young age of nine. I wonder how much influence would his strongly Protestant mother Jeanne of Navarre would have in the government, and the conflict it would create with the Guises.

I think François II would still die young. His health was awfully poor, as his mother had went through a great deal in order to have him, all kinds of remedies and other tricks that rendered him in very poor health. Indeed, at the time of his death he hadn't even hit puberty IIRC. It's a surprise he lived as long as he did.

If François II dies, then Antoine becomes King as he was next in line. He was only nominally Protestant, and his reconversion to Catholicism in the 1550s caused a breach with his wife. If he marries Jeanne of Navarre (I can't see why he wouldn't, honestly), there may be some issues with a 'heretic' being Queen of France more than anything, as Antoine will most definately drop the Protestant act if there is an issue. He would probably live longer than he did, as he died IOTL besieging Rouen in the religious wars. Henry IV would probably be raised Catholic from birth -- I can see there being considerable opposition to having Jeanne crowned as Queen of France.

If Antoine does die early leaving Henry IV as a minor, there would be a definite problem. There is no way Jeanne would be granted the Regency, as the kingdom would be outraged. There would probably be a council of sorts to govern instead -- although the wife had a strong position as Regent, it wasn't always necessary: Louis XIII tried to keep his wife from being Regent for Louis XIV, but she simply had his will annulled by the Parlement of Paris. I doubt Jeanne would be in a position like that. She might flee to Béarn and the safety of her own kingdom with her son, which may cause a problem. She might even attempt to gain Protestant support (England, the Dutch, German states?) to become Regent for her, opposing the Ultra-Catholics. That would quite interesting and definately cause all sorts of problems. If Antoine were to die early and the possibility of Jeanne ruling as Regent for her minor son, the Guise would certainly make a preemptive move, perhaps to seize the young Henry IV. But the Henry IV of ATL would be nothing like IOTL.

Any chance the English hold onto Calais for longer?

Probably -- there is a possibility that Edward lives longer and has children with Mary of Scots, if that marriage happens, France never intervenes in the 1550s so no chance for England to join the Spanish alliance, or a lot of other butterfly effects. This POD definately extends English rule in Calais, although for how long, I'm not sure.
 
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