Some background may be needed before getting to the Point of Divergence.
In 1776, the British sent a large number of reinforcements to Canada to relive Quebec. These fell under the command of the Governor of Quebec, and the highest ranking British officer in the Americas, Sir Guy Carleton. Carleton defeated the Americans and recovered Montreal and St. Jean. He did not retake Ticonderoga in 1776 as the American Secretary, St. Germain, had hoped, deciding that it was too late in the year to try after he paused to build a fleet and secure naval control of Lake Champlain.
John Burgoyne had been sent to be Carleton's deputy. The original plan was to use Henry Clinton as Carleton's deputy, but Clinton was made Howe's deputy instead. In 1777, Germain decided to replace Burgoyne as commander of the northern army at St Jean, though he would remain as Governor of Canada. Depending on which historians you read, the reasons were personal animus between Germain and Carleton, disappointment at Carleton not even trying to take Ticonderoga in 1776, or the fact that since Carleton was senior to Howe, if the northern army and the larger army under Howe in New York even made a junction in upstate New York, Howe would fall under Carleton's command. The idea of a junction between the northern and the main armies in Albany was sort of or sort of not the center piece of the not very joined up British strategy. But for whatever reason, someone other than Carleton was going to lead the northern army in 1777, with the next two senior generals, Clinton and Burgoyne, as the main candidates.
As it happened, both Clinton and Burgoyne were on leave in England at the same time before the 1777 campaign. Clinton was offered the northern army command first, but was hesitant, so Burgoyne got it.
So what would have happened if Clinton had been commander of the northern army in 1777? This implies that Burgoyne would have wound up as Howe's deputy instead of Clinton.
In 1776, the British sent a large number of reinforcements to Canada to relive Quebec. These fell under the command of the Governor of Quebec, and the highest ranking British officer in the Americas, Sir Guy Carleton. Carleton defeated the Americans and recovered Montreal and St. Jean. He did not retake Ticonderoga in 1776 as the American Secretary, St. Germain, had hoped, deciding that it was too late in the year to try after he paused to build a fleet and secure naval control of Lake Champlain.
John Burgoyne had been sent to be Carleton's deputy. The original plan was to use Henry Clinton as Carleton's deputy, but Clinton was made Howe's deputy instead. In 1777, Germain decided to replace Burgoyne as commander of the northern army at St Jean, though he would remain as Governor of Canada. Depending on which historians you read, the reasons were personal animus between Germain and Carleton, disappointment at Carleton not even trying to take Ticonderoga in 1776, or the fact that since Carleton was senior to Howe, if the northern army and the larger army under Howe in New York even made a junction in upstate New York, Howe would fall under Carleton's command. The idea of a junction between the northern and the main armies in Albany was sort of or sort of not the center piece of the not very joined up British strategy. But for whatever reason, someone other than Carleton was going to lead the northern army in 1777, with the next two senior generals, Clinton and Burgoyne, as the main candidates.
As it happened, both Clinton and Burgoyne were on leave in England at the same time before the 1777 campaign. Clinton was offered the northern army command first, but was hesitant, so Burgoyne got it.
So what would have happened if Clinton had been commander of the northern army in 1777? This implies that Burgoyne would have wound up as Howe's deputy instead of Clinton.