WI: Heinrich Held had stood firm?

[Persephone]

So, in 1932 and early 1933, the Bavarian state government led by Heinrich Held floated the idea of giving Rupprecht, Crown Prince of Bavaria dictatorial powers under the title of Staatskommissar in an attempt to prevent a Nazi-run federal German government from forcibly removing the Bavarian state government like they'd go on to do in Prussia in July. The plan was supported by a wide coalition of allies, including the SPD and the post-war Minister-President Wilhelm Hoegner, but it ultimately fell through in OTL because Held wavered with the plan and didn't announce the appointment in February of 1933. The following month, the Nazi federal government forcibly removed the Bavarian state government through the use of the SA and replaced the office of the Bavarian prime minister with the office of Reichsstatthalter, which was a purely administrative role with no political power. What would have happened if Held had actually stood firm and gone through with the plan to give Rupprecht dictatorial powers? Would we see an independent Bavaria? Would the Bavarian show of defiance inspire other states to stand up to the Nazis? In OTL, the German army had orders from Berlin to not interfere in domestic politics and Held wasn't able to stay in power, but would that change if Held had gone through with the plan?

I'm interested in this event as a possible stepping stone for a Bavarian monarchist restoration, but I wanted to get some outside opinions first on the plausibility of such an action.

 

[Lautréamont]

Well, at the end of the day Held, just like every other late-Weimar-era political actor, was more scared of civil war than he was of Hitler. As I like to say, what's the worst that could happen, the last time the Bohemian corporal made a move against the Weimar order he accidentally saved it from the Kahr-Lossow clique.

About Held specifically, two claims from Winfried Becker's Held biography in Zeitschrift für bayerische Landesgeschichte 72 are relevant here.

One, Held was apparently less monarchist than his contemporaries assumed. While he was a reactionary, he was also a strongly legalist bizarro Ebert type and staunch Brüning ally who felt that a conservative revolution was still a revolution. He also seems to have deemed Bavarian monarchism a paper tiger; Rupprecht's supporters way overestimated their popular support, and Held's sources told him that the Rupprechtists had no money and no support among the army and bureaucracy.

Two, Becker claims that Held's removal from power was also a personal betrayal by Hindenburg; he stayed put because Hindenburg promised him Reichswehr assistance against an SA coup, and as always Hindenburg failed to deliver.