I am not so certain that Adenauer was ineligible. He could have become Reichskanzler in 1926 already, despite him keeping all options open during the chaotic year of 1923. He was also an influential politician on the Prussian level until the Gleichschaltung.
As the fox that he was, he was able to deal with Communists as well as with the Nazis if it suited his needs.
If the Centrum is up for a political renewal (it moved way to the right over the course of the Weimar Republic), Adenauer would be exactly the person to give that a face. The pivotal question would be if the Centrum would, without the shock of the Nazi years, realize the potential for a not exclusively Catholic moderately conservative party? Moderate DNVP-defectors (General Lettow-Vorbeck among them) had attempted to establish such a seperate party after 1930, and it had Brünings approval. However, that plan failed.
***
In the SPD, I guess that Otto Wels would be around for some time. But Kurt Schumacher who joined the Reichstag in 1930, would be its rising star in the 30s. As young as the leading Nazis (*1895), not afraid of nationalism, a great rhetoric and with all the credentials of a Frontkämpfer (he had lost an arm in the Great War)- he could have helped the SPD to regain some of the lost ground.
***
The big question is actually the voting potential of DVP and DDP which really evaporated from 16% in 1924 to 3% in 1932. Could, even in a continuing Weimar Republic, Liberalism as a strong political force get resurrected? I doubt it, and I have no idea who should do the task.
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I doubt that the NSDAP would implode. It would certainly lose momentum, and with financial difficulties, it would have to cut back on subsidizing its SA and the lavish modern campaigning. With free elections in 1934 or 1935, I would still see them as strongest party, though with a result in the 20-28%-range. [The question is always whether in the scenario the elections of 1930/32 occur similar to OTL; that alone could have huge repercussions. ]
Would Hitler remain on top? Could he even commit suicide if he sees that he will never be the Führer of all Germans? Would Strasser go Maverick at some time? As I said before, there is little certainty in interwar-German alternate history.
***
Concerning the Civil War idea....like nuclear weapons, the threat is more useful than its use. If the SA wants to fight against the government [remember: this thread assumes Hindenburg backing Brüning no matter what], it will be gunned down by the Reichswehr, the overwhelming majority of the police forces, and the democratic paramilitary.
We are OTL not very much aware of the Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold...because its leaders never dared to use it against the government. I doubt it could have succesfully fought the SA on its own. It would however be a different situation if Hitler tried a new 1923 and it only had to undertake supporting tasks where demanded.
Ironically, I see an outcome which will as well lead to outlawing the KPD and its organisations.... and perhaps also a different (corporational?) one-party-state, more similar to Italy or Austria; martial law remaining enforced for some time, and perhaps in the end monarchical restauration.
***
But my money would be on Civil War not occuring. If Hindenburg supports Brüning, the elections of 1932 and 1933 don't occur. Brüning would wait until the second half of 1934, in order to gain as much as possible from the slow economic recovery and the small political gains received internationally.
Given that Hindenburg OTL died on August 2nd, it would be interesting to see presidential elections coinciding with Reichstagswahlen.
So perhaps this is a possible scenario:
September 1934: Presidential Elections, Round 1
Ernst Thälmann, KPD: 19%
Otto Wels, SPD: 22%
Heinrich Brüning, Z: 17%
Kurt v. Schleicher, DNVP: 11%
Adolf Hitler, NSDAP: 27%
others: 4%
October 1934, Presidential Elections, Round 2
Ernst Thälmann, KPD: 15%
Paul v. Lettow-Vorbeck, SPD/Z/DVP/DDP: 55%
Adolf Hitler, NSDAP: 30%
November 1934, Reichstagswahlen
KPD: 16%
SPD: 22%
DDP: 2%
Z/BVP/VKP (Volkskonservative Partei): 21%
DVP: 2%
DNVP: 9%
NSDAP: 23%
others: 5%
Reichspräsident Lettow-Vorbeck chooses 39-year-old Kurt Schumacher as new Reichskanzler. Heinrich Brüning Foreign Secretary.
As the fox that he was, he was able to deal with Communists as well as with the Nazis if it suited his needs.
If the Centrum is up for a political renewal (it moved way to the right over the course of the Weimar Republic), Adenauer would be exactly the person to give that a face. The pivotal question would be if the Centrum would, without the shock of the Nazi years, realize the potential for a not exclusively Catholic moderately conservative party? Moderate DNVP-defectors (General Lettow-Vorbeck among them) had attempted to establish such a seperate party after 1930, and it had Brünings approval. However, that plan failed.
***
In the SPD, I guess that Otto Wels would be around for some time. But Kurt Schumacher who joined the Reichstag in 1930, would be its rising star in the 30s. As young as the leading Nazis (*1895), not afraid of nationalism, a great rhetoric and with all the credentials of a Frontkämpfer (he had lost an arm in the Great War)- he could have helped the SPD to regain some of the lost ground.
***
The big question is actually the voting potential of DVP and DDP which really evaporated from 16% in 1924 to 3% in 1932. Could, even in a continuing Weimar Republic, Liberalism as a strong political force get resurrected? I doubt it, and I have no idea who should do the task.
***
I doubt that the NSDAP would implode. It would certainly lose momentum, and with financial difficulties, it would have to cut back on subsidizing its SA and the lavish modern campaigning. With free elections in 1934 or 1935, I would still see them as strongest party, though with a result in the 20-28%-range. [The question is always whether in the scenario the elections of 1930/32 occur similar to OTL; that alone could have huge repercussions. ]
Would Hitler remain on top? Could he even commit suicide if he sees that he will never be the Führer of all Germans? Would Strasser go Maverick at some time? As I said before, there is little certainty in interwar-German alternate history.
***
Concerning the Civil War idea....like nuclear weapons, the threat is more useful than its use. If the SA wants to fight against the government [remember: this thread assumes Hindenburg backing Brüning no matter what], it will be gunned down by the Reichswehr, the overwhelming majority of the police forces, and the democratic paramilitary.
We are OTL not very much aware of the Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold...because its leaders never dared to use it against the government. I doubt it could have succesfully fought the SA on its own. It would however be a different situation if Hitler tried a new 1923 and it only had to undertake supporting tasks where demanded.
Ironically, I see an outcome which will as well lead to outlawing the KPD and its organisations.... and perhaps also a different (corporational?) one-party-state, more similar to Italy or Austria; martial law remaining enforced for some time, and perhaps in the end monarchical restauration.
***
But my money would be on Civil War not occuring. If Hindenburg supports Brüning, the elections of 1932 and 1933 don't occur. Brüning would wait until the second half of 1934, in order to gain as much as possible from the slow economic recovery and the small political gains received internationally.
Given that Hindenburg OTL died on August 2nd, it would be interesting to see presidential elections coinciding with Reichstagswahlen.
So perhaps this is a possible scenario:
September 1934: Presidential Elections, Round 1
Ernst Thälmann, KPD: 19%
Otto Wels, SPD: 22%
Heinrich Brüning, Z: 17%
Kurt v. Schleicher, DNVP: 11%
Adolf Hitler, NSDAP: 27%
others: 4%
October 1934, Presidential Elections, Round 2
Ernst Thälmann, KPD: 15%
Paul v. Lettow-Vorbeck, SPD/Z/DVP/DDP: 55%
Adolf Hitler, NSDAP: 30%
November 1934, Reichstagswahlen
KPD: 16%
SPD: 22%
DDP: 2%
Z/BVP/VKP (Volkskonservative Partei): 21%
DVP: 2%
DNVP: 9%
NSDAP: 23%
others: 5%
Reichspräsident Lettow-Vorbeck chooses 39-year-old Kurt Schumacher as new Reichskanzler. Heinrich Brüning Foreign Secretary.