WI: Hedwig of Anjou, King of Poland Has a Son Instead of a Daughter?

[piratedude]

Poland-Lithuania lasts longer and there could be mo continual partitions. Poland would become like France and fall to republican revolutions by the 19th and 20th centuries.

Thats going to depend quite alot on just how absolutist the regime becomes, and when the enlightenment comes around, how much they modernize.

This strong Poland can become the model for an ATL Enlightened despotism as OTL Prussia was, or they might become a constitutional monarchy.

 

[krieger]

So the Polish crown would - in theory - be in better shape than it was by the 1430s OTL then? What sort of powers would this monarch have/"reclaimed" from the Sejm?

Not in theory, it'd be definitely in better shape than it was IOTL in 1430's. First of all, Sejm didn't exist back then and the first Sejm was called in year 1493. Jogaila won't lose - right to imprison anyone without judges sentention, right to mint his own money (IOTL he transferred this to the Royal Council). And he'd probably continue gathering illegal taxes (according to Polish historian Stanisław Bardach, he did it from time to time).

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

right to imprison anyone without judges sentention, right to mint his own money (IOTL he transferred this to the Royal Council). And he'd probably continue gathering illegal taxes (according to Polish historian Stanisław Bardach, he did it from time to time).

To my mind all of those sound like reasonably good ways to keep an alt-Sejm in line. Although, I imagine that there will still be some sort of power grab the minute there's a power vacuum at the top (absent king, underage sovereign, etc), right?

 

[krieger]

To my mind all of those sound like reasonably good ways to keep an alt-Sejm in line. Although, I imagine that there will still be some sort of power grab the minute there's a power vacuum at the top (absent king, underage sovereign, etc), right?

Yes, there will definitely be, but not as powerful as IOTL. If something resembling Sejm will ever emerge ITTL it'd similar to Landtags in the eastern German principalities - a toy in the monarch's hand, usually obeying his decisions.

 

[TheNerd_]

This strong Poland can become the model for an ATL Enlightened despotism as OTL Prussia was, or they might become a constitutional monarchy.

Could this radically change the rest of History? Bismark is going to deal with a tougher Poland during the German Unification.

Edit: On another note, yet another power to strengthen the Napoleonic Coalitions.

 

[piratedude]

Bismark is going to deal with a tougher Poland during the German Unification

Well the given POD is early enough that Prussia is going to stay subordinated to the Crown, so that its just another part of the Commonwealth.

As for its place in the european order, well its going to be major.

For one thing, a strong and relatively independent King-Grand Duke means that the reformation/counterreformation in poland can play out very differently. My guess is that the king would push for a catholic-orthodox union (similar to the ruthennian unionate church) to form a united front against the protestants, though that can turn into messy fight if the ruthenians think its catholicizing their church. So purhaps ultimately a treaty of religious toleration will be made that keeps the catholic-orthodox church supreme, but minorities explicitly protected.

Regardless of the strong King-Grand Duke, the Common wealth is going to be sandwiched between the HRE, Sweden, and a nascent Russia. The long term goals are probably to keep sweden on the north end of the Baltic, deny Russian westward expansion, and either annex or maintain polish hegemony over Hungary as a check against the Austrians. Oh and probably give the Ottomans an asskicking to give them direct access to the black sea.

So basically they would want an Intermarium

 

[TheNerd_]

the reformation/counterreformation in poland

Can Germany still remain Catholic then? That would change tons of stuff. And maybe, Austria might have united all of Germany since Prussia isn't as powerful, given an early POD.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Everyone's going on about Prussia, but who's to say that the state (as we know it) will even exist? If Jogaila or his son crushes the TO as @krieger suggested, it stands to reason that the TO's lands would be absorbed into Poland or Lithuania (speaking of which, under Jogaila and Hedwig's son, would it be a personal union à la OTL? Or would there be a single state welded from the two parts? If not immediately, eventually?) would it not?

That said, would Elisabeth of Görlitz have any better luck producing kids with her Polish husband than she did with her Valois/Wittelsbach spouses OTL? Or would this king of Poland be obliged to marry again when Elisabeth dies?

 

[Wendell]

Everyone's going on about Prussia, but who's to say that the state (as we know it) will even exist? If Jogaila or his son crushes the TO as @krieger suggested, it stands to reason that the TO's lands would be absorbed into Poland or Lithuania (speaking of which, under Jogaila and Hedwig's son, would it be a personal union à la OTL? Or would there be a single state welded from the two parts? If not immediately, eventually?) would it not?

That said, would Elisabeth of Görlitz have any better luck producing kids with her Polish husband than she did with her Valois/Wittelsbach spouses OTL? Or would this king of Poland be obliged to marry again when Elisabeth dies?

It's not tenable to retain as one state indefinitely in that era. Perhaps the son of Hedwig in this timeline has two sons himself, and grants each of them one of his realms?

 

[krieger]

Everyone's going on about Prussia, but who's to say that the state (as we know it) will even exist? If Jogaila or his son crushes the TO as @krieger suggested, it stands to reason that the TO's lands would be absorbed into Poland or Lithuania (speaking of which, under Jogaila and Hedwig's son, would it be a personal union à la OTL? Or would there be a single state welded from the two parts? If not immediately, eventually?) would it not?

That said, would Elisabeth of Görlitz have any better luck producing kids with her Polish husband than she did with her Valois/Wittelsbach spouses OTL? Or would this king of Poland be obliged to marry again when Elisabeth dies?

Predicting the rise (or lack of) of Prussia is worthless right now, it was three hundred years after the events discussed in topic. Having said so, TO's lands (if Hungarians are present on the battlefield) will be directly annexed into Poland, as Jogaila did OTL, but was forced to undo this by von Plauen's actions. Directly annexing something into Lithuania is problematic, because from the legal point of view very existence of Lithuania was dubious. And I'm not joking. But to justify my opinion, we should go back to the beginning. To the Krewo act. It is widely believed, that Krewo act established typical personal union between Poland and Lithuania, where both parts are theoretically equal and tied only by person of common monarch (Polish-Hungarian union can be an example). However, this statement is just not true. Jogaila, in Krewo Act promised to "applicare" (incorporate) Lithuanian and Ruthenian lands into the Polish crown. It wasn't an worthless piece of paper - next year, while paying homage to Jogaila and Hedwig, Lithuanian princes (brothers of Jogaila and members of Keystutovichi branch of family) paid also homage to Corona Regni Poloniae - so to Polish state itself. Ivan Skirigaila, who ruled Lithuania in absence of his elder brother, Jogaila was only and governor of Jogaila. Vytautas, at the beginning of his rule, was also only an governor. He gained the title of Grand Duke only after Jogaila became depressed after his wife's childless death. However, Vytautas wasn't an completely independent Grand Duke. Vytautas paid homage to Jogaila and Corona Regni Poloniae. What's more, Vytautas (in Horodło and Radom) promised that Lithuania will be directly incorporated into Polish crown after his death. And Vytautas was appointed to his position by Jogaila, who held the title of Supreme Duke of Lithuania. Jogaila also picked Vytautas's succesor (this choice proved to be fatal, but Jogaila was elderly while making this decision and wanted to secure future for Gediminids). Only Casimir Jagiellon in 1440 (ascension to the title of Grand Duke against the wishes of his elder brother, who wanted him only to be his governor in Vilnius) and 1444 (Casimir Priviledges, stating that Lithuania won't be tied to Poland in anything except that in name) broke this tradition. So if Jagiellons didn't lose the hereditary claim to Poland and they had no reason to opt for Lithuania going independent, situation will look like this - Lithuania is still part of a Polish crown, although unruly and hard to govern (think about Grand Duchy of Transylvania in Hungary, there are some similarities), the current ruler of Poland holds the title of Supreme Duke of Lithuania, while the heir to the throne bears the title of Grand Duke of Lithuania (it could become the Polish equivalent of Prince of Wales or Dauphin).

 

[TheNerd_]

Agewise Sigismund's niece Elizabeth of Görlitz (once proposed to Jogaila after the death of Hedwig of Cili) would be better

Jogaila's son with Elizabeth could become king of Hungary.

Lithuania is still part of a Polish crown, although unruly and hard to govern (think about Grand Duchy of Transylvania in Hungary, there are some similarities), the current ruler of Poland holds the title of Supreme Duke of Lithuania, while the heir to the throne bears the title of Grand Duke of Lithuania (it could become the Polish equivalent of Prince of Wales or Dauphin).

Kind of like a "United Kingdom of Poland and Lithuania"

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

while the heir to the throne bears the title of Grand Duke of Lithuania (it could become the Polish equivalent of Prince of Wales or Dauphin).

Oh, I like that idea.

It's not tenable to retain as one state indefinitely in that era. Perhaps the son of Hedwig in this timeline has two sons himself, and grants each of them one of his realms?

That's basically what happened OTL. I was actually thinking that Jogaila's son, grandson (and maybe even great-grandson) would all be only sons as a way of getting a union as mentioned above.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Jogaila's son with Elizabeth could become king of Hungary.

Well, Liz is marrying Ladislaus Bonifacius, not Jogaila - she refused that OTL, hard to see why she wouldn't here - so no dice. That said, a second son for LB that becomes heir to Hungary/Bohemia could be interesting. Although I doubt that Siggie would want to sidestep his own daughter and I would prefer not to further concentrate the Luxemburg genepool (i.e. a marriage between LB's son and Siggie's daughter).

 

[TheNerd_]

That said, a second son for LB that becomes heir to Hungary/Bohemia could be interesting.

Mary of Durazzo, an illegitimate daughter of Ladislaus of Anjou-Durazzo, marry Jogaila. Also, Ladislaus has a son. You've just saved the senior Anjou line and established the Angevin Kingdom of Hungary. If there is no Jogaila child, have Ladislaus have two children and split the realm among themselves.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Mary of Durazzo, an illegitimate daughter of Ladislaus of Anjou-Durazzo, marry Jogaila. Also, Ladislaus has a son. You've just saved the senior Anjou line and established the Angevin Kingdom of Hungary. If there is no Jogaila child, have Ladislaus have two children and split the realm among themselves.

Really doubt that the Luxemburgs-Habsburgs-Wittelsbach bloc is going to allow the Poles to just peel away Hungary. Unless Siggie dies in captivity in Krakow (i.e. before his daughter's born) I can't see it happening.

 

[krieger]

Well, Liz is marrying Ladislaus Bonifacius, not Jogaila - she refused that OTL, hard to see why she wouldn't here - so no dice. That said, a second son for LB that becomes heir to Hungary/Bohemia could be interesting. Although I doubt that Siggie would want to sidestep his own daughter and I would prefer not to further concentrate the Luxemburg genepool (i.e. a marriage between LB's son and Siggie's daughter)

Well, it's the question what Siggie would be up to do and if he really needed Jagiellon support he wouldn't hesitate from creating an incestous marriage.

 

[krieger]

Really doubt that the Luxemburgs-Habsburgs-Wittelsbach bloc is going to allow the Poles to just peel away Hungary. Unless Siggie dies in captivity in Krakow (i.e. before his daughter's born) I can't see it happening.

But this bloc needs to exist first, and there was a problem with this in year 1400. Albert III Habsburg was plotting against Luxembourgs. And Rupert Wittelsbach was elected as anti-King to Wenceslaus, so Wittelsbachs can ally with Jagiellons.

 

[TheNerd_]

Albert III Habsburg was plotting against Luxembourgs.

If I recall, you suggested that Nicholas II Garai might kill Siggie thus ending the Luxembourg line.

When referring to situation of Hungary, we should also remember that Sigismund was imprisoned once by Nicholas II Garai. Nicholas II Garai was the son of Nicholas I Garai, the palatine of Hungary who died for Mary's (elder sister of Hedwig) cause. He supported Sigismund and Mary (Nick II) in fighting with Croatian rebels, but he fell intro quarell with Sigismund and imprisoned him. IOTL, he proposed Hungarian crown to Jogaila, but was convinced by his mother to change opinion and restore Sigismund's rule. Would Garai's mother still want Sigismund being restored? Would Garai himself prefer Sigismund over the rightful heir of the cause, for which his father sacrificed his life?

Have Nick marry Mary Of Durazzo to legitimize his rule and become King Anjou-Garai of Hungary. It's slim but it is possible.

 

[krieger]

If I recall, you suggested that Nicholas II Garai might kill Siggie thus ending the Luxembourg line.

Luxembourg line won't be killed yet, because there was an elder brother of Siggie, Wenceslas IV, king of Bohemia, who lived until 1419. He'd be the last male Luxembourg. And I suggested that Garai would send Siggie to Cracow, where Hedwig could do anything with him, so sparing his life will be seen as an act of mercy.

Have Nick marry Mary Of Durazzo to legitimize his rule and become King Anjou-Garai of Hungary. It's slim but it is possible.

Nick II hated Anjou-Durazzo line. His father died while fighting supporters of Charles III (father of Ladislao) and Nick II himself commited many crimes while fighting Durazzo supporters in Croatia. Also, Hungarian noblemen won't recognize Nick as a sole King. Matthias Corvinus reigned later. IMHO, Nick would support union in Poland in hope of being named palatine, who will rule instead of an absent King (but presence of said King will give a bit of legitimism to his rule).

 

[marcinL]

Luxembourg line won't be killed yet, because there was an elder brother of Siggie, Wenceslas IV, king of Bohemia, who lived until 1419. He'd be the last male Luxembourg. And I suggested that Garai would send Siggie to Cracow, where Hedwig could do anything with him, so sparing his life will be seen as an act of mercy.



Nick II hated Anjou-Durazzo line. His father died while fighting supporters of Charles III (father of Ladislao) and Nick II himself commited many crimes while fighting Durazzo supporters in Croatia. Also, Hungarian noblemen won't recognize Nick as a sole King. Matthias Corvinus reigned later. IMHO, Nick would support union in Poland in hope of being named palatine, who will rule instead of an absent King (but presence of said King will give a bit of legitimism to his rule).

Wearing too many crowns at once will likely lead to weakening royal power in all these kingdoms - even worse if the Jagiellons manage to get elected to Czech crown when Vaclav dies.