WI: Heath wins in 1974

This is something that has been explored in other WIs but there are a few particular questions I have about it. Let's say Heath is returned in February 1974 with a ten seat cushion, something large enough to allow the Tories to govern for a while but not enough to make massive changes. What happens?

Would Heath's mandate make a difference when dealing with the unions? Would his government fare any better than Labour through the various crises between 1974-79? And if not, is there the possibility of him ending up being ousted by someone from the right of the party, as happened in opposition?

What happens to Labour? Callaghan seems to be the obvious successor to Wilson, but I wonder if he would want it at his age if it meant leading the party in opposition for five years. Jenkins is probably ruled out by the fiasco over Europe, and Foot, whilst a possibility, seems less likely given that he didn't have ministerial experience at this stage, and the left was weaker than it was in 1980 without a lot of moderates losing their seats in 1979. That leaves Healy, if Callaghan doesn't go for it. Would we see something similar to what happened in the run up to 1983 take place, with reform of the leadership elections, the Bennites, and a more left wing platform? Or could be the party be held together well enough for them to beat the Tories at the next election? And would the party stick with the European referendum policy?

Finally, with all three parties likely to be discredited in some way in this scenario, (provided the whole Thorpe affair happens) is there scope for a more successful fourth party challenge? Maybe from the National Front, or Ecology, or something more moderate like one of the small centrist Labour breakaways gaining traction? Obviously I wouldn't expect them to win seats, but I wonder if they could at least get above 2% or so nationally.
 
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My tip is Callaghan to lead Labour until 1979 and win a majority.

Don't rule out Heath being removed by the Tories before the 1979 election, it was turbulent times and the Tory Right would have been agitating for a more dry economic approach.
 
My tip is Callaghan to lead Labour until 1979 and win a majority.

Don't rule out Heath being removed by the Tories before the 1979 election, it was turbulent times and the Tory Right would have been agitating for a more dry economic approach.

There was literally no way to remove a sitting leader until Heath lost in 1974 and the rules were changed due to the circumstances. He's certainly not being removed while he's still PM.
 
Probably no Thatcher given she only became Tory Leader in the first place as a protest/rejection of Heath. She might get moved from Education to Environment after a Heath win, paralleling how she moved portfolios in opposition OTL.

In this scenario, I see Keith Joseph as a more likely next PM if Heath is forced out, providing that Joseph avoids the kind of controversial comments that derailed his leadership bid OTL. If not Joseph then Whitelaw. Either way, this next PM rules until 1979 when Labour get back in because I struggle to see how the Tories could've sufficiently rowed back public support when they have to deal with the economic crisis.
 
In this scenario, I see Keith Joseph as a more likely next PM if Heath is forced out, providing that Joseph avoids the kind of controversial comments that derailed his leadership bid OTL. If not Joseph then Whitelaw. Either way, this next PM rules until 1979 when Labour get back in because I struggle to see how the Tories could've sufficiently rowed back public support when they have to deal with the economic crisis.
I suppose that depends on whether you think the economic crisis would have been as bad under the Tories. One thing to bear in mind is that Labour will be quite a divided opposition, especially with Wilson gone. Even if the Tories had as bad a time of it as Labour did IOTL, they could still be competitive in 1978 or 1979 if Labour self destructs as it did in 1979-83.
 
I suppose that depends on whether you think the economic crisis would have been as bad under the Tories. One thing to bear in mind is that Labour will be quite a divided opposition, especially with Wilson gone. Even if the Tories had as bad a time of it as Labour did IOTL, they could still be competitive in 1978 or 1979 if Labour self destructs as it did in 1979-83.

I don't think Labour would have self-destructed as badly as the early eighties in this scenario. By that point you had had an increasing ascendency of the left in the party since around about the 1970 defeat. By 1974, that process is still in its infancy. It would have been a lot easier for Labour if they had either won in 1970 or lost in 1974. I think it's bound to be lead from the right, for starters, as you've gone over it's realistically between Callaghan or Healey most like.

Just to re-state before the contrary becomes a sine qua non of this thread, Heath would have seen out the parliament, though he would have been damaged if the majority had been smaller than 1970, many people were expecting a landslide because of the circumstances of the election. The continuance and modification of the Industrial Relations Act and Heath being returned, prices and incomes continuing, should probably help domestically but Heath's boom and the global situation still playing out wouldn't help and the general economic situation would still be fraught I imagine. The government should have more room to manoeuvre in terms of tackling inflation than Labour did, so it's quite possible 1976 is avoided.

I think by the time of the next election it would be a competitive contest for both sides, but the public would have gone through a lot of hell under Heath and might be change-minded in spite of whether the country seemed to be turning a corner. (Which in many ways it seemed to be doing under Callaghan OTL, at least until the winter of discontent)
 
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