WI-Healthy Chernenko

IOTL, when Konstantin Chernenko became leader of the Soviet Union in February 1984, he was suffering from multiple heart and lung ailments due to a lifetime of smoking. Consequently, he was only General Secretary for 13 months, most of them spent in hospital, before kicking the bucket.

Suppose Chernenko stays away from tobacco. As a result, when he becomes General Secretary in 1984, he's in good health-at least as good as someone his age can be. How long would he last, and what would the effects be on the Soviet Union and Cold War?
 
The man was a political functionary of the highest order, with little vision other than to regard his job as keeping the Soviet Union on an even keel and ignoring all the unpleasant clanging noises from the engine room as things literally fell apart. He was 73 when he ‘got’ the job (he was seen as a cypher for Grishin and others) and had been smoking since he was 9 years old. It’s going to need a very early butterfly to affect his health. If he lasts longer then there’s no end to the Cold War and no real effort to fix the SU’s increasingly dire economic problems.
 
I have read that Chernenko only got the job because of his poor health - i.e. Gorbachev did not feel ready to become Gen. Sec. but didn't want to see anyone who might last very long to get the job - so he threw the weight of himself and his allies behind Chernenko.

So possibly, a healthy Chernenko means an earlier rise to the top for Gorbachev.

From what I've read, after Andropov, the only other man who had any shot at getting the top job for any length of time was Romanov, and most commentators agree that his name pretty much makes him a paper tiger against Gorbachev.

fasquardon
 
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