There are, I think, two ways for this to go:
Option 1) A British protectorate. Britain had strong interests in Hawaii, and its not too far to see the monarchy inviting the British to protect them from external threats (and internal, like the American planters). This probably means that although Hawaii still ships most of its products to America, a larger portion will go to the British territories. America probably does not take the Philippines, so we may see a German/British/Japanese/other colonial power grab.
Depending on Butterflies, there may or may not be something like the pacific Theater of World War II, although I think some conflict between the western powers and Japan is very likely. I think its very likely that the Japanese would never be able to take Hawaii on its own, although here again we have a divergence: The British win, or the Japanese (or non-British power) win.
If the British win, we'll see a very interesting nation in my opinion. There will be a lot of agitation for democracy and for the monarchy to lessen its role (just look at OTL Tonga), while at the same time it will have something that the other Polynesian states don't have: A large white population, and a large Asian population. Plus, I also think it will be better off, with a higher rate of education and economic growth then the other Pacific Island nations. In fact, we might even see something like a 'Polynesian' tiger, rapidly developing (perhaps in the 80s?). So, by 2000 we have an ethnically diverse nation with probably four major languages (Hawaiian, English, and Japanese, plus Hawaiian creole), dealing with a slow down in economic growth, and radical agitation to increase democracy.
If the Japanese win (or other non-British power), then there are two probable options: Either direct occupation, or a puppet state. Direct occupation would be interesting, I'd expect to see lots of resistance activity hiding in the mountains of the Big Island, or perhaps in some hidden coves here and there. To know more, we'd need to flesh out the winning side of the war and its goals. A puppet state is also very interesting. They may or may not keep the monarchy, and I think we can expect a lot of refugees from the British pacific possessions fleeing to this (relatively unimportant) nation. The Winning side's soldiers probably patrol the streets of pearl Harbor from there 'friendly' military base there, as the population is restless against whatever autocartic regime is in place. Really an interesting setting in my opinion.
2)Hawaii stays completely independent. I think this is less likely, but interesting. It will probably become heavily influenced by America and Britain. Sorry, would expand, but I very tired.
Option 1) A British protectorate. Britain had strong interests in Hawaii, and its not too far to see the monarchy inviting the British to protect them from external threats (and internal, like the American planters). This probably means that although Hawaii still ships most of its products to America, a larger portion will go to the British territories. America probably does not take the Philippines, so we may see a German/British/Japanese/other colonial power grab.
Depending on Butterflies, there may or may not be something like the pacific Theater of World War II, although I think some conflict between the western powers and Japan is very likely. I think its very likely that the Japanese would never be able to take Hawaii on its own, although here again we have a divergence: The British win, or the Japanese (or non-British power) win.
If the British win, we'll see a very interesting nation in my opinion. There will be a lot of agitation for democracy and for the monarchy to lessen its role (just look at OTL Tonga), while at the same time it will have something that the other Polynesian states don't have: A large white population, and a large Asian population. Plus, I also think it will be better off, with a higher rate of education and economic growth then the other Pacific Island nations. In fact, we might even see something like a 'Polynesian' tiger, rapidly developing (perhaps in the 80s?). So, by 2000 we have an ethnically diverse nation with probably four major languages (Hawaiian, English, and Japanese, plus Hawaiian creole), dealing with a slow down in economic growth, and radical agitation to increase democracy.
If the Japanese win (or other non-British power), then there are two probable options: Either direct occupation, or a puppet state. Direct occupation would be interesting, I'd expect to see lots of resistance activity hiding in the mountains of the Big Island, or perhaps in some hidden coves here and there. To know more, we'd need to flesh out the winning side of the war and its goals. A puppet state is also very interesting. They may or may not keep the monarchy, and I think we can expect a lot of refugees from the British pacific possessions fleeing to this (relatively unimportant) nation. The Winning side's soldiers probably patrol the streets of pearl Harbor from there 'friendly' military base there, as the population is restless against whatever autocartic regime is in place. Really an interesting setting in my opinion.
2)Hawaii stays completely independent. I think this is less likely, but interesting. It will probably become heavily influenced by America and Britain. Sorry, would expand, but I very tired.