WI: Hasdrubal Wins At Metaurus?

So, let's say Nero is killed early in the fighting, and Hasdrubal crushes the Roman army at Metaurus. He then gets through to Hannibal, also sending word that he just killed Nero (and possibly Livius). Hannibal, realizing the Roman consular army facing them is without their commander, links up with Hasdrubal and crushes the army, which is presumably led by a much less experienced man than Nero.

What then? I think at this point, Rome has to capitulate. The Latin allies were already becoming stingy with giving troops to the Romans, with some refusing completely. With two consular armies destroyed in rapid succession again, Rome is really stretched to her limits, far more than after Cannae. More Italian allies would likely defect to Hannibal, and now he at least can threaten to siege Rome, since Hasdrubal brought much needed men and siege equipment to make the threat have merit.


Rome would have little choice but to ask for terms. The terms would likely be something along the lines of handing over Sicily, Sardinia, and Corsica, pulling out of Spain and withdrawing support for their allies in Greece and Illyria, and possibly paying Macedon some small indemnity.

What would the future hold? Hieronymus reached an understanding with Carthage to have Sicily in return for him rebelling, but I doubt Cartage would hand over all of the island to him, especially the western coastal areas like Lilybaeum.
 
Well, Carthage will probably got a good settlement but I very much doubt that Rome will capitulate. By that point their fortune where in upswing all accross the rest of the board, in Hispania, in Sicily, in the open sea, etc...

The more likely outcome in the scenario you propose (Carthage can win a much less devastating victory at Metaurus and still be in a better position then before) will probably be something like victorious-carthage version of the treaty who end the first punic war.

The islands and Spain back to Carthage but Rome rettain is diplomatic power and did not pay indemnities.
 
Well, Carthage will probably got a good settlement but I very much doubt that Rome will capitulate. By that point their fortune where in upswing all accross the rest of the board, in Hispania, in Sicily, in the open sea, etc...

The more likely outcome in the scenario you propose (Carthage can win a much less devastating victory at Metaurus and still be in a better position then before) will probably be something like victorious-carthage version of the treaty who end the first punic war.

The islands and Spain back to Carthage but Rome rettain is diplomatic power and did not pay indemnities.
Yeah, I was on the fence about indemnities. Though I think gaining back Sicily and Sardinia+Corsica is almost like a pre-condition for Hannibal before accepting peace. And ITTL, he has the military might to back up that claim and at least make it seem to the Romans that he could take Rome (which he probably couldn't in actuality in 9/10 chances I'd say). If they don't capitulate soon after Metaurus though, I can see a few more setbacks, like say, losing Tarentum again, and maybe Scipio dying in Spain (there are plenty of chances for spanish tribesmen to get lucky, especially considering their loyalties were always in doubt) then they would see the writing on the wall. Maybe Phillip V not completely screwing up in Greece would help too.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Macedonian_War

Well, to be fair Philippe V did not exactly screw that, at least not that war ;), but any help he could give directly to Hannibal depend of its capacity to pass the adriactic and Rome still control the mediteranean at this point.

As far Scipio is concern its death will be a blow, if it happen, but not as much that we could think: after Illypa and Hasdrubal departure for Italy Spain was firmly held by Rome

Last but not least: an important peace parti, directed by Hanno the Great, was still existing at Carthage. They will probably push for any peace at least slightly favorable to Carthage.

Ultimately Rome wilingness the come the terms will depend, as you said, of their fear of an Hannibal attempt on Rome.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Macedonian_War

Well, to be fair Philippe V did not exactly screw that, at least not that war ;), but any help he could give directly to Hannibal depend of its capacity to pass the adriactic and Rome still control the mediteranean at this point.

As far Scipio is concern its death will be a blow, if it happen, but not as much that we could think: after Illypa and Hasdrubal departure for Italy Spain was firmly held by Rome

Last but not least: an important peace parti, directed by Hanno the Great, was still existing at Carthage. They will probably push for any peace at least slightly favorable to Carthage.

Ultimately Rome wilingness the come the terms will depend, as you said, of their fear of an Hannibal attempt on Rome.
Right, I forgot Phillip didn't botch the first war up.

Scipio's death, as you said, won't do anything in the strategic sense. But if you couple it with the fear in Rome already, it could tip them over the edge (or help to).

Hanno seemed more content to direct troops away from Hannibal. He knew the limits of his influence, for the Barcids still had strong influence in the city. The failure of the peace faction to prevail when Scipio landed in Africa may underline that Hanno's peace faction wasn't as strong as it is played out to be. Though he might actually see common ground with Hannibal for once-if Hannibal pushes for peace terms that return Sicily and Sardinia+Corsica back to Carthage, Hanno might support it.
 
Though he might actually see common ground with Hannibal for once-if Hannibal pushes for peace terms that return Sicily and Sardinia+Corsica back to Carthage, Hanno might support it.

Good point for Hanno, altough that beg the opposite question: will Hannibal accept anything else then a, improbable at this point, total victory?

For the what next part I think that Rome is in similar situation to Carthage after the 1st war. You mentionned Heronymus and the inevitable tension between him and Carthage. It could be the perfect occasion for Rome to start its recovery.
 
Good point for Hanno, altough that beg the opposite question: will Hannibal accept anything else then a, improbable at this point, total victory?

I don't see why not. Hannibal was not an idiot or a raving fanatic.

For the what next part I think that Rome is in similar situation to Carthage after the 1st war. You mentionned Heronymus and the inevitable tension between him and Carthage. It could be the perfect occasion for Rome to start its recovery.

This raises the question of how the southern Italians (both those who were swayed by Hannibal and unenthusiastic about giving more troops to Rome) will deal. I doubt they're going to feel particularly drawn to Rome - it might be too much to have an active rebellion/open war, but that's going to be something interfering with Rome and those still behind it.
 
This raises the question of how the southern Italians (both those who were swayed by Hannibal and unenthusiastic about giving more troops to Rome) will deal. I doubt they're going to feel particularly drawn to Rome - it might be too much to have an active rebellion/open war, but that's going to be something interfering with Rome and those still behind it.

Yeah, definitely. Hannibal would also be more than happy to exit Italy after a peace treaty leaving the Italians that joined him still rebelling against Rome-that would keep Rome occupied for some time, though it might at the same time make them pissed off at Carthage for abandoning them.
 
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