WI: Harvey is a Category 5 at landfall?

PoD: Harvey continues rapidly intensifying on August 24th and 25th (IOTL, dry air entered the system, preventing it from strengthening until the 25th, hours before landfall; it hit as a Category 4 (well, 130 miles per hour) near Port Aransas and Rockport).

So, let's assume that, when it makes landfall (at the same place as OTL), its a high-end Category 5 hurricane (assume the winds are 185 miles per hour, similar to what Irma was when it hit Barbuda).

Effects, anyone? (IMO, Rockport-Fulton and Port Aransas are going to be gone. Literally.)
 
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Hurricane Katrina in Texas basically?

In terms of strength, definitely worse - Katrina had weakened to a 3 when it hit Louisiana.

I don't know enough about storms to speak knowledgeably about this, but I would think that, assuming it hit roughly around the same time it did OTL, damage and casualties would probably be worse.
 
Hurricane Katrina in Texas basically?

probably worse...for everything that happened in the New Orleans area during Katrina, and the pre-storm mental collapse of Katherine Babineaux Blanco, Houston would have been much worse...

Most of the NOLA area was evacuated...the Superdome was never intended to be a shelter (the lesson had been learned a few years earlier)...

back to Houston...there is no way to evacuate the city adequately even though you have a lot more than three major routes outside the city...
 
Corpus Christi takes a major hit. Houston is far enough away there won't be a significantly worse impact. There will be a bit more flooding and a bit higher winds, but not much else, and certainly nowhere near Katrina. Remember that Katrina was more than a hundred miles wider than Harvey, and that Houston is more than 200 miles from Port Aransas. Corpus, OTOH, is only ~20 miles.
 
The scenario here is that Harvey still has the same size as OTL, but it's a Category 5, and follows the same path as OTL @Osakadave. Corpus gets more damage, of course, but northeastern Nueces County (Port Aransas) and especially the area from Port Aransas to Port Lavaca really takes a pounding; for example, Rockport-Fulton will not exist anymore. Not in any shape or form...

And the death toll in those areas will be in the hundreds...

BTW, for those who are interested, here's a link to the NWS page in Corpus Christi which discusses Harvey's effects on the Coastal Bend:

http://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey
 
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The scenario here is that Harvey still has the same size as OTL, but it's a Category 5, and follows the same path as OTL @Osakadave. Corpus gets more damage, of course, but northeastern Nueces County (Port Aransas) and especially the area from Port Aransas to Port Lavaca really takes a pounding; for example, Rockport-Fulton will not exist anymore. Not in any shape or form...

And the death toll in those areas will be in the hundreds...
Very doubtful on the death toll.
 
Waaayyy over. I can see maaaybe just topping 100, but hundreds will require it to hit a lot closer to Houston.
 
I do agree with you on that, @Osakadave, especially if it's the same size as OTL. (BTW, would that include those who drowned in the flooding in Houston IOTL, because dozens drowned in the city, IIRC?)

Harvey, BTW, was a compact storm (similar to another storm that had hit the Corpus Christi area 47 years earlier--Celia, which, unlike Harvey, devastated Corpus, primarily because the landfall was between Aransas Pass and Corpus Christi. If Harvey had followed that path, Corpus would have gotten heavy damage.)...

Another side note: if you want to read about a Hurricane Harvey that does hit Houston, Texas as a Category 5 hurricane (in 2005, interestingly enough), here's the post (it inspired my WI to an extent):
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-new-millennium.395490/page-246#post-15864482
 
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It causes an even larger amount of damage in the Coastal Bend, but otherwise it wouldn't be too much worse since IIRC the Coastal Bend was where only a fraction of the damage from the storm occurred. Harvey would retain more wind speed for a longer period of time, but it will still weaken to a tropical storm and stall over East Texas.
 
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