WI: Harold Ford, Jr. wins 2006 Tennessee Senate election

What if former Tennessee Representative Harold Ford, Jr., who at one time, was a rising star in the Democratic Party, one of the most prominent centrists in the Democratic Party, had beaten Bob Corker for Senate in 2006? What would his political future look like today?
 
Democrats will have another senator in 2009-2010, 61 if Specter still switches. So that could ease some of their legislative pushes. ACA might pass without using reconciliation after Scott Brown wins, for example. On the flip side, Ford will likely be a frustrating vote for the Dems - he'll vote with them on the big bills, but only after a lot of coaxing and concessions, like Blanche Lincoln and Ben Nelson.

Ford will then likely lose in 2012. He might not even run for reelection if he's facing near-certain defeat. His political career afterwards is probably just as stalled as it is currently.
 
Why is conventional wisdom that Ford loses in 2012? It was a pretty Democratic year, and would likely be more so if President Obama is able to push more of his agenda through Congress thanks to the extra vote in the Senate. Heitkamp won. Tester won. I understand these are bluer states than Tennessee, but I question whether an incumbent Ford, with the advantage of six years of fundraising and constant media focus, would be unsuccessful in a bid for reelection.
 
Why is conventional wisdom that Ford loses in 2012? It was a pretty Democratic year, and would likely be more so if President Obama is able to push more of his agenda through Congress thanks to the extra vote in the Senate. Heitkamp won. Tester won. I understand these are bluer states than Tennessee, but I question whether an incumbent Ford, with the advantage of six years of fundraising and constant media focus, would be unsuccessful in a bid for reelection.

It isn't impossible. But Western states like ND and MT are generally less politically and racially polarized. Plus, with their small populations, their politics are very localized. As a result, ticket-splitting is fairly common there.

TN by contrast voted for Romney by 20 points. It's very hard to imagine Ford winning enough crossover votes to beat the Republican candidate under those circumstances. The one exception might be if the TN GOP nominates an Akin or Mourdock-type nominee, though both states voted for Romney by half the margin Tennessee did.
 
It isn't impossible. But Western states like ND and MT are generally less politically and racially polarized. Plus, with their small populations, their politics are very localized. As a result, ticket-splitting is fairly common there.

TN by contrast voted for Romney by 20 points. It's very hard to imagine Ford winning enough crossover votes to beat the Republican candidate under those circumstances. The one exception might be if the TN GOP nominates an Akin or Mourdock-type nominee, though both states voted for Romney by half the margin Tennessee did.
Romney won West Virginia by an even bigger margin, but Manchin won in a landslide there - I think it's plausible Ford could pull off a narrow win.
 
Likely loses in 2012 unless the Republicans nominate a truly terrible candidate against him.

Yes. Also since Ford lost, he moved to New York City and his political opinions have liberalized A LOT (or maybe he is now more honest about them). When he ran for Senate in Tennessee he presented himself as a moderate/even center-right Democrat. If he ran again in 2012 he would either have to remain that way (and become a pariah in the Dem hierarchy) or disavow some of his previous views (and lose badly in 2012).
 
Tennessee's been getting rapidly politically polarised toward the Republican direction over the past decade as the moderate Democrats die out or change affiliation to Republican. I guarantee Harold Ford Jr. would have lost the next election, and that goes double if Obama still wins in 2008.

There's also the popular perception in Tennessee that he was a scumbag since he came from the Ford family of Memphis who have deep, deep links to local and state corruption. Case in point, his Uncle John Ford was nailed in 2005 for multiple charges of bribery, threatening FBI agents, etc. A couple years in the Senate will probably only increase that perception.

Ford will then likely lose in 2012. He might not even run for reelection if he's facing near-certain defeat. His political career afterwards is probably just as stalled as it is currently.

Basically. The statewide Democratic Party will probably still back him regardless, but he'd be looking at a landslide loss to whoever the Republicans dig up. It'll probably be a Tea Party guy too who wins the primary, so maybe Joe Carr.

To see how little effort the Tennessee Democratic Party puts into important state elections, look no further than who they "nominated" in the 2012 US Senate election (far-right anti-gay activist) and 2014 Governor election (random old guy from the middle of nowhere named Charlie Brown). I suspect that's because any serious Democrat will focus on other state or local offices.
 
Ford was a DLC type and it seems like he'd become Hillary's highest profile black surrogate. It's possible he even runs himself to help her against Obama. So she could win the primary. He could also back Obama, though.

A 2009-11 two-year supermajority instead of a brief two-month one is the most likely result—and this would result in quite a few changes, starting with a larger stimulus. Obama's first two years go much smoothly. Just search all the legislation that failed the filibuster.

A black Democrat up in the Tennessee during 2012 is likely done for, especially if Obama is the incumbent—after all, if it wasn't for racial attacks, Ford would've prevailed in 2006. I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to get a Cabinet spot or something to save the humiliation. Otherwise he better pray for tea.
 
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