WI: Harding Lives

In OTL President Warren G. Harding died of a heart attack in July of 1923, before the revelation of the scandals that earned him a reputation as one of the worst presidents in American history. Vice President Calvin Coolidge was distant enough from the various scandals that they didn't seriously impact the 1924 campaign, but what would have happened if Harding survived the heart attack (or it didn't happen)? Would the strong economy have been enough to propel him to reelection, or would the series of scandals have been enough to put a Democrat in the White House?
 
If Harding survived, he either would have not run at all in 1924 (he hated the job when he realized that the scandals were going to come out) or would be defeated in 1924.

Assuming Harding did run for office in 1924, it would be likely for the Democrats to win, although La Follete's Progressive Party did gain 16% of the vote, so he might be able to capture the election. If he decided not to run, the Republican nominee might have a chance, but with Harding alive it would make it much harder for the nominee to downplay the scandals.

No matter what, the Great Depression would be very different than OTL, especially the election of 1932.
 
In OTL President Warren G. Harding died of a heart attack in July of 1923, before the revelation of the scandals that earned him a reputation as one of the worst presidents in American history. Vice President Calvin Coolidge was distant enough from the various scandals that they didn't seriously impact the 1924 campaign, but what would have happened if Harding survived the heart attack (or it didn't happen)? Would the strong economy have been enough to propel him to reelection, or would the series of scandals have been enough to put a Democrat in the White House?

I think Harding would win because the economy was good, the Dems were divided, and he wasn't personally connected to the scandals. But he'd probably win by less of a margin than Coolidge.
 

raharris1973

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If Harding survived, he either would have not run at all in 1924 (he hated the job when he realized that the scandals were going to come out) or would be defeated in 1924.

Assuming Harding did run for office in 1924, it would be likely for the Democrats to win, although La Follete's Progressive Party did gain 16% of the vote, so he might be able to capture the election. If he decided not to run, the Republican nominee might have a chance, but with Harding alive it would make it much harder for the nominee to downplay the scandals.

No matter what, the Great Depression would be very different than OTL, especially the election of 1932.

If this miracles a Democrat into the White House (and it would probably be for two terms) would it result in any foreign policy changes? Any embrace of Wilsonian ideas? Faster track for Filipino independence? Earlier Good Neighbor policy for Latin America?
 
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If this miracles a Democrat into the White House (and it would probably be for two terms) would it result in any foreign policy changes? Any embrace of Wilsonian ideas? Faster track for Filipino independence? Earlier Good Neighbor policy for Latin America?
If a Democrat gets elected in 1928, the Republican challenger in 1932 would move left, restoring the parties to their 19th century left-right alignments. What about FDR? Could he become a liberal Republican?
 
If a Democrat gets elected in 1928, the Republican challenger in 1932 would move left, restoring the parties to their 19th century left-right alignments. What about FDR? Could he become a liberal Republican?

FDR was the Democratic VP nominee in 1920, so if he does switch parties, it would make a few headlines.

If Robert la Follette manages to come out on top in 1924, then that would change the party dynamic, with FDR probably joining the new Progressive Party.
 
FDR was the Democratic VP nominee in 1920, so if he does switch parties, it would make a few headlines.

If Robert la Follette manages to come out on top in 1924, then that would change the party dynamic, with FDR probably joining the new Progressive Party.

Is a Progressive victory plausible ITTL or would they just take away votes from the incumbent?
 

raharris1973

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If a Democrat gets elected in 1928, the Republican challenger in 1932 would move left, restoring the parties to their 19th century left-right alignments. What about FDR? Could he become a liberal Republican?

The idea that 19th century republicans were to the “left” of democrats is a reductionist perspective based on retrospectively racializing the definition of right and left.
 
Is a Progressive victory plausible ITTL or would they just take away votes from the incumbent?

The scandals would lend nicely to the ideas of reform. Plus, the Democrats were deadlocked at the convention IOTL, which led to them getting less than 28% of the vote, the lowest of any Democratic presidential candidate since 1860. IOTL, the Progressive Party beat the Democrats in 12 states, and with a weakened Republican party that may be more. They also drew their votes from both Democrats and Republicans, which would help ensure electoral viability.

The Progressive plan was to win enough electoral votes to throw the election to the House, which they easily might have. If you give the Progressives every state where they had a less than 5% margin of defeat (according to Wikipedia), the totals are 199 (R) - 136 (D) - 196 (P). That means that if the Democrats take one state from the Republicans, the Progressives will be either tied for the lead or leading in the Electoral College I know that calculation is unrealistic on how ITTL 1924 would go, but it does show that Progressives certainly had a chance, especially with their goal of throwing the election to the House.

While a Progressive victory isn't certain, it would be plausible.

Source
 
I think Harding would win because the economy was good, the Dems were divided, and he wasn't personally connected to the scandals. But he'd probably win by less of a margin than Coolidge.


Agreed - though he might not live out his second term. I read somewhere that He was considering Charles G Dawes as VP for 1924.
 
Agreed - though he might not live out his second term. I read somewhere that He was considering Charles G Dawes as VP for 1924.

I don’t know much about Dawes, but assuming Harding dies during his second term (let’s say the official word that he had a heart attack OTL is true and he simply has it a couple of years later, or shit, he survives his wife poisoning him and she just does it again) the question is this - if the Depression hits on time, does the President act like Hoover and institute government relief programs or does he institute a giant middle finger? Either way, FDR will undoubtably say it isn’t the right course and have a strong chance of getting elected in 1932.
 
How about this: assuming Harding lives, he's sufficiently fed up with the job given betrayal by his friends (he said during his term that his friends were keeping him awake at nights) that he:
  • Requests permission to speak to a joint session of Congress;
  • Permission is granted;
  • During the speech, he makes a clean breast, acknowledging all the scandals, and dismissing those implicated "so that they might concentrate on the ensuing legal proceedings"--and then, presaging Harry Truman IOTL, says that as president, the ultimate responsibility was his.
  • Based on that statement, he praises Vice President Coolidge unreservedly--and announces he will resign at noon one week hence.
 
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