WI: Hapsburgs Die Out in 1705

What if Leopold I had no male children and the male line of Hapsburgs dies out with his death (presumably in the early 1700s). For the purpose of this scenario imagine that the War of the Spanish Succession is averted due to be Louis XIV bring more tactful or Joseph Ferdinand surviving. Who is most likely to receive the Hapsburg inheritance? Would the House of Lorraine be able to become the new Archduked of Austria because of their strong claim? Or would the House of Wittelsbach inherit Austria because of them being relatively stronger than Lorraine?

Separately, of Leopold I had daughters would he try to achieve some sort of Pragmatic Sanction or would he try to marry his daughter to a preferred heir?
 
Interesting. IOTL Leopold I had daughters, in fact his eldest daughter was married to the Prince-Elector of Bavaria. To increase the chances of Lorraine, you might need Leopold I only having one surviving son instead, either Joseph or Charles and like OTL have him have only daughters. Otherwise the Bavarian match would still go ahead, since IMHO by that point Leopold I would still think, he has enough time to sire a son.

With either only Leopold or him just having one son, there's no available Austrian Habsburg claimant for the Spanish throne, that does not prevent them from claiming a part of the Spanish inheritance though, the duchy of Milan and the Southern Netherlands would be plausible candidates for this. The duchy of Milan will be contested by the house of Savoy though
If there already is a Wittelsbach Spain, the other powers might prefer another candidate for Austria, this might help the house of Lorraine. Austria will certainly cost the house of Lorraine, the duchies of Lorraine & Bar, or depending on how the Spanish succession was resolved, the duchy of Milan.

Having a pragmatic sanction and marrying his daughter to a preferred heir does not totally exclude each other. More importantly it's the shape the country is in. Sure Bavaria is stronger than Lorraine, but Austria with Bohemia and Hungary is stronger than Bavaria.

Let's say the following happens.

Stage 1, the end of the Spanish Habsburgs:
House of Wittelsbach (Joseph Ferdinand) gains Spain and the colonies.
The duke of Anjou gets the kingdoms of Naples and Sardinia, while the Dauphin gets the duchies of Lorraine & Bar.
The house of Lorraine is compensated with the duchy of Milan.
In recognition of the claim of the house of Savoy, they receive the kingdom of Sicily.
In recognition of the claim of the Austrian Habsburgs, they are left with the Southern Netherlands.

Stage 2, the end of the Austrian Habsburgs:
Lorraine, is preferred by the Great Powers, to inherit Austria, Hungary and Bohemia, but loses the duchy of Milan.
Savoy really wants the duchy of Milan (it helps is the Savoyard forced defeat the Milanese forces of Lorraine) and propose the following trade: Savoy gets the duchy of Milan, but they also exchange* the kingdom of Sicily for the kingdom of Sardinia with the king of Naples (duke of Anjou).
The Southern Netherlands is a bit of a wild card. Either Bavaria gets it as compensation or Austria keeps it, because England and the Dutch Republic do not want France to have it, and Austrian Forces have managed to defeat Bavaria.

(*= this would allow the duke of Savoy to retain a title of king (even though Sicily was seen as a much greater price than Sardinia); while at the same time recognize the fact that Sicily, though valuable, is also distant and vulnerable; finally it recognizes that both Milan and Sicily would be more than Powers greater than Savoy would allow Savoy to have)
 
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Interesting. So the First Partition Treaty holds and Max Emmanuel is having the time of his life being Regent of Spain. Austria is allocated Milan—which it wants. And can’t demand much else.

On the home front though Austria can hold its own, coming off its victory against the Ottomans. I don’t think the other powers will have an appetite for the dismemberment of Austria and the medium powers in Germany will not be able to swing it.

The match arranged to perpetuate the dynasty could be Maria Elizabeth and Ferdinand Albert of Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel. He’d have to convert but his relatives did so to marry the now nonexistent Joseph and Charles. He is Ferdinand V (?) Holy Roman Emperor. She is Queen of Hungary etc. I think she was an able Governor of the Netherlands so maybe she’s a good empress too.

Elizabeth and Ferdinand live reasonably long lives 1741 and 1735 respectively. Presumably they have male and female children. The new dynasty is Habsburg-Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel.
 
The Brunswick Welfs are also a claimant to Poland..that is also a plus to them, they would outshine the Hohenzollerns and the Wettins who claim the same throne.
 
Interesting. So the First Partition Treaty holds and Max Emmanuel is having the time of his life being Regent of Spain. Austria is allocated Milan—which it wants. And can’t demand much else.

On the home front though Austria can hold its own, coming off its victory against the Ottomans. I don’t think the other powers will have an appetite for the dismemberment of Austria and the medium powers in Germany will not be able to swing it.

The match arranged to perpetuate the dynasty could be Maria Elizabeth and Ferdinand Albert of Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel. He’d have to convert but his relatives did so to marry the now nonexistent Joseph and Charles. He is Ferdinand V (?) Holy Roman Emperor. She is Queen of Hungary etc. I think she was an able Governor of the Netherlands so maybe she’s a good empress too.

Elizabeth and Ferdinand live reasonably long lives 1741 and 1735 respectively. Presumably they have male and female children. The new dynasty is Habsburg-Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel.

I'm not quite sure, if Austria would settle for just the duchy of Milan. Their interests seem to have been thrown under the bus from their perspective. Especially without a clear Habsburg candidate, ITTL there's no spare Archduke. Austria is unlikely to reduce the share of France, but they could end up with something more at the expense of the Wittelsbachs of Bavaria. This basically leaves the kingdom of Sardinia and the Southern Netherlands, the latter seems the most likely concession to Austria.
Then there is the house of Lorraine, France was really interested in the duchies of Lorraine & Bar, so they too might have been allocated something from the French or Bavarian share in compensation. Maybe France agrees to get Naples and Sardinia, and offers Sicily to the house of Lorraine (Sardinia is not enough and Naples seems a bit too much, though the house of Lorraine actually had a claim on that kingdom); or the house of Lorraine gets the duchy of Milan or the Southern Netherlands.
 
The points in the prior two posts are well taken. But I think the Habsburgs are strong enough to assert their power in their main realms and to take Milan if that is assigned. I don’t think they have the oomph to go on a War of Conquest.

Of course the English and Dutch could insist on more territories for Austria even if these were unwanted by her. I’m thinking the southern Netherlands here. As an alternative how about the Dutch taking that area?

The House of Lorraine idea is interesting. Yes, the French wanted their territory which was just liberated a few years prior. But where to put the dukes of Lorraine. If you give them Naples or Sicily where does Philip go? Maybe Sardinia and Savoy does not get anything.
 
Savoy and Sardinia are not United States at this point.

Savoy could also easily get nothing. The only reason that Savoy was offered anything from France is France's interest in possessing Savoy. The only reason Savoy got anything from the allies is because they fought for them.

Finally, I'm proposing that the Hapsburgs die out in both Spain and Austria.
 
Savoy and Sardinia are not United States at this point.

Savoy could also easily get nothing. The only reason that Savoy was offered anything from France is France's interest in possessing Savoy. The only reason Savoy got anything from the allies is because they fought for them.

Finally, I'm proposing that the Hapsburgs die out in both Spain and Austria.


Sorry should have been clearer. I propose The duke of Lorraine gets Sardinia. Savoy gets nothing. As you say, they didn’t fight so no reward.

If Leopold has a daughter (Elizabeth) it can be arranged that she rule in the Habsburg lands. Her husband is Holy Roman Emperor. Thus, you have the Habsburg male line die but the realm remain intact.

In Spain, is a Wittelsbach dynasty friendly or hostile to France? And what of Bavaria? After the death of Max Emmanuel, does it pass to Charles Albert to prevent union with Spain? I would think This is one thing Austria would demand in the partition treaty.
 
Sorry should have been clearer. I propose The duke of Lorraine gets Sardinia. Savoy gets nothing. As you say, they didn’t fight so no reward.

If Leopold has a daughter (Elizabeth) it can be arranged that she rule in the Habsburg lands. Her husband is Holy Roman Emperor. Thus, you have the Habsburg male line die but the realm remain intact.

In Spain, is a Wittelsbach dynasty friendly or hostile to France? And what of Bavaria? After the death of Max Emmanuel, does it pass to Charles Albert to prevent union with Spain? I would think This is one thing Austria would demand in the partition treaty.

IMHO Sardinia for Lorraine & Bar is a poor exchange, sure they are kings now, but that's about it. The most logic offer, given the claim the inherited from the house of Valois-Anjou would be the kingdom of Naples, though the more obvious offer would be Sicily. This would indeed mean Savoy gets nothing. France would get Lorraine & Bar and the French candidate would end up with Naples and Sardinia.
 
Of course there also is a scenario, where there is no Bavarian compromise candidate. Without a spare Archduke, the Austrian Habsburgs, like the house of Savoy, can still claim a part of the inheritance, but they won't be able to claim most of it. The duchy of Milan and the Southern Netherlands seem to be the maximum possible, though they might overplay their hand and are left with even less.

Under this scenario the duke of Anjou will receive Spain and the colonies. The Italian possessions would probably still end up as bargaining chips. First the kingdoms of Sicily and Naples (including Presidi) would be offered to the duke of Savoy in exchange for Savoy, Piedmont and the county of Nice (to France). They will most likely refuse such an offer. Then a similar offer will go to the duke of Lorraine & Bar, will the initial offer could be the kingdom of Naples (with Presidi) in exchange for the duchies of Lorraine & Bar (to France); this initial offer might be refused, but a final offer including Naples (with Presidi) and Sicily in exchange for Lorraine & Bar going to France seems very acceptable.
Then there's the duchy of Milan, Savoy really preferred this and France was not very fond of Austrian presence in Italy, so France could decide they prefer Savoy over Austria there. The kingdom of Sardinia will be wild card, if Savoy would manage to negotiate a Royal Crown (after all the duke of Lorraine & Bar would be turned into the king of Sicily & Naples), Sardinia seems unimportant enough to make the ruler of Savoy a king without receiving too much at the negotiating table.
Now Austria will receive the Southern Netherlands as a kind of token recognition for the Habsburg claim.

This would mean a French victory, the French candidate on the Spanish throne, France finally formally gets Lorraine & Bar, the Austrian Habsburg are kept out of Italy and make little gains (besides England & the Dutch Republic do not want the Southern Netherlands in French hands). Even Italy being divided between medium tier powers (Naples-Sicily & Savo-Milan(-Sardinia?), instead of being in the Habsburg sphere isn't too bad for France either and much worse for Austrian Habsburgs.
 
The scenario above is going to leave Austria mighty pissed. What’s to stop them from saying “take your Southern Netherlands and shove ‘em”? Are they then assigned to the Dutch?

Austria, thus deprived, turns it attentions eastward, consolidating power in Hungary—so the political situation there is more akin to that in Bohemia. And perhaps more is gained in the Second Morean War since there is no Italian flank to worry about.

Only when colonial tensions heat up between the Anglo-Dutch and the Franco-Spanish will Austria be cajoled into joining a coalition with the former—who need a large continental ally which can field a large army
 
Of course there also is a scenario, where there is no Bavarian compromise candidate. Without a spare Archduke, the Austrian Habsburgs, like the house of Savoy, can still claim a part of the inheritance, but they won't be able to claim most of it. The duchy of Milan and the Southern Netherlands seem to be the maximum possible, though they might overplay their hand and are left with even less.

Under this scenario the duke of Anjou will receive Spain and the colonies. The Italian possessions would probably still end up as bargaining chips. First the kingdoms of Sicily and Naples (including Presidi) would be offered to the duke of Savoy in exchange for Savoy, Piedmont and the county of Nice (to France). They will most likely refuse such an offer. Then a similar offer will go to the duke of Lorraine & Bar, will the initial offer could be the kingdom of Naples (with Presidi) in exchange for the duchies of Lorraine & Bar (to France); this initial offer might be refused, but a final offer including Naples (with Presidi) and Sicily in exchange for Lorraine & Bar going to France seems very acceptable.
Then there's the duchy of Milan, Savoy really preferred this and France was not very fond of Austrian presence in Italy, so France could decide they prefer Savoy over Austria there. The kingdom of Sardinia will be wild card, if Savoy would manage to negotiate a Royal Crown (after all the duke of Lorraine & Bar would be turned into the king of Sicily & Naples), Sardinia seems unimportant enough to make the ruler of Savoy a king without receiving too much at the negotiating table.
Now Austria will receive the Southern Netherlands as a kind of token recognition for the Habsburg claim.

This would mean a French victory, the French candidate on the Spanish throne, France finally formally gets Lorraine & Bar, the Austrian Habsburg are kept out of Italy and make little gains (besides England & the Dutch Republic do not want the Southern Netherlands in French hands). Even Italy being divided between medium tier powers (Naples-Sicily & Savo-Milan(-Sardinia?), instead of being in the Habsburg sphere isn't too bad for France either and much worse for Austrian Habsburgs.
The scenario above is going to leave Austria mighty pissed. What’s to stop them from saying “take your Southern Netherlands and shove ‘em”? Are they then assigned to the Dutch?

Austria, thus deprived, turns it attentions eastward, consolidating power in Hungary—so the political situation there is more akin to that in Bohemia. And perhaps more is gained in the Second Morean War since there is no Italian flank to worry about.

Only when colonial tensions heat up between the Anglo-Dutch and the Franco-Spanish will Austria be cajoled into joining a coalition with the former—who need a large continental ally which can field a large army

Austria had a much greater claim than Savoy (and an indisputable one as was not tied to any unpaid compensation for the renounce of an Infanta to her birthright like the French one) to the Spanish inheritance and Milan was an Imperial fief so at the extinction of the Spanish branch Milan would most likely go back to them. If Austria had no chance to get the whole Spanish inheritance they would need to obtain at least Milan and the Netherlands if not also Naples and Sicily. Savoy’s claim was more junior than both the French and Austrian ones so they would be left outside the main partition. If France had Spain and colonies
for Anjou then Netherlands and Italy will most likely go to Austria (and in no way Austria will get less than Milan and Netherlands who are the minimum who they can get. The maximum is Netherlands, Milan, Naples, Sicily and Sardinia who is pretty unlikely as Sardinia is more likely to go to Savoy than Austria)
 
I hear you on all this Isabel but an Austrian Habsburg family with its own succession problems is going to have to shore things up at home and will have limited appetite for a European war. That said yes I agree they could assert themselves in Milan and take the Southern Netherlands to please their maritime allies. But I doubt they are getting anything else. No Naples and Sicily in this scenario.
 
For Savoy to be rewarded with the duchy of Milan, they most likely at least needed to cede the duchy of Savoy proper to France, this would leave them with Piedmont, Milan and the county of Nice, maybe the kingdom of Sardinia is added to sweeten the deal.
The major handicap for the Habsburgs an any Partition ITTL is the lack of a spare Archduke. All the others Powers wanted to prevent France becoming too dominant, but no one wanted to restore the Empire of Charles V either; ITTL Austria will be left without Allies sooner than IOTL, which increases the risk of pushing it too far and end up with less*.
At most they might indeed end up with the Southern Netherlands and the duchy of Milan. I disagree that the Southern Netherlands weren't a valuable possession, but they were removed from the core territories of the Austrian Habsburgs and it shared a border with rival and sometimes enemy France. Sure it wasn't as valuable anymore as the Burgundian Inheritance, which had to the Spanish branch of the dynasty (then Ferdinand I and Maximilian II would have loved to have acquired the Burgundian Netherlands & Franche Comté).
The Austrian Habsburgs IMHO won't reject the Southern Netherlands, but without at least the duchy of Milan it will feel as a consolation price, but under a worse case scenario not at totally unlikely outcome.

IMHO the fate of the duchy of Milan will also have an affect on the rest of the treaty, without the duchy of Milan, Savoy will need a better compensation than the kingdom of Sardinia, so the kingdom of Sicily like IOTL would initially be more obvious. Ceding the duchy of Savoy (proper), was always going to be hard, but without the duchy of Milan (regardless of Sardinia), that's off the table.
If in the initial proposal the house of Lorraine was rewarded Naples and Sicily, then the 'loss' of Sicily (in a second offer) will be compensated with Sardinia; if OTOH Lorraine agreed on Naples (with Presidi), then Sardinia could end up staying Spanish.

(*= under such a scenario, Austria eventually ending up without the duchy of Milan is plausible)
 
Fair enough. Does peace last after whatever compromise is finalized? What are The ambitions of France, Austria and Spain in the following decades?

Austria in such a scenario is fairly strong if the alt pragmatic sanction works. It would expand to the south at Ottoman expense and perhaps try to meddle in Poland. It may continue to be part of an anti-French coalition in the west.
 
For Savoy to be rewarded with the duchy of Milan, they most likely at least needed to cede the duchy of Savoy proper to France, this would leave them with Piedmont, Milan and the county of Nice, maybe the kingdom of Sardinia is added to sweeten the deal.
The major handicap for the Habsburgs an any Partition ITTL is the lack of a spare Archduke. All the others Powers wanted to prevent France becoming too dominant, but no one wanted to restore the Empire of Charles V either; ITTL Austria will be left without Allies sooner than IOTL, which increases the risk of pushing it too far and end up with less*.
At most they might indeed end up with the Southern Netherlands and the duchy of Milan. I disagree that the Southern Netherlands weren't a valuable possession, but they were removed from the core territories of the Austrian Habsburgs and it shared a border with rival and sometimes enemy France. Sure it wasn't as valuable anymore as the Burgundian Inheritance, which had to the Spanish branch of the dynasty (then Ferdinand I and Maximilian II would have loved to have acquired the Burgundian Netherlands & Franche Comté).
The Austrian Habsburgs IMHO won't reject the Southern Netherlands, but without at least the duchy of Milan it will feel as a consolation price, but under a worse case scenario not at totally unlikely outcome.

IMHO the fate of the duchy of Milan will also have an affect on the rest of the treaty, without the duchy of Milan, Savoy will need a better compensation than the kingdom of Sardinia, so the kingdom of Sicily like IOTL would initially be more obvious. Ceding the duchy of Savoy (proper), was always going to be hard, but without the duchy of Milan (regardless of Sardinia), that's off the table.
If in the initial proposal the house of Lorraine was rewarded Naples and Sicily, then the 'loss' of Sicily (in a second offer) will be compensated with Sardinia; if OTOH Lorraine agreed on Naples (with Presidi), then Sardinia could end up staying Spanish.

(*= under such a scenario, Austria eventually ending up without the duchy of Milan is plausible)
Without Spain and colonies and would not be again the Empire of Charles V. Plus Spanish Netherlands, Duchy of Milan and Kingdoms of Naples and Sicily is exactly what Charles VI had at the end of the War of Spanish succession (or better after the Sicily/Sardinia swap at the end of the next) and so would be an acceptable compromise for everyone (as France MUST renounce to a lot in exchange of the succession in Spain and colonies). Savoy has a claim really low (as they were heirs only of Philip II’s daughter while Austria’s claim was from the daughter of Philip III and France came from Philip IV’s daughter (who had signed a renounce to her rights who was claimed to be invalidated by the fact who her dowry was paid only in part).
So Austria has the best claim, France a shakier one, while Savoy had clearly a junior one (and so must be happy with anything they receive).
Austria need to be handsomely compensated for a renounce to Spain (less than Milan and Netherlands and you really risk to must choosing between the Empire of Charles V OR a extra super-powerful France and both are a big no for England).

If a treaty recognize the King of France’s grandson as heir of Spain Austria need to be compensated with at least Milan and Netherlands. Naples and Sicily (and an Archduchess as next Queen of Spain) are treatable but Austria will ask for them (and nobody will fault them for this). France was the country to keep under control not Austria.
OTL Savoy and Lorraine received something in the second partition treaty only because France needed to be handsomely commended for the loss of the Spanish crown but nobody wanted really give them that lands so they organized that swaps. Here that will not be necessary as Austria (can very well keep Italy without being a trouble for the other countries unlike France
 
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