WI: Hapsburg collapse in 1618-1621

I just got finished reading about the opening stages of the Thirty Years War, and what struck me was how...lucky the Hapsburgs were in 1618-1621, or rather, how inept their enemies were. The majority of their nobility were protestant, and the estates of most of their realms-Bohemia, Austria, Hungary-all rebelled, and at one point, Bohemian and rebel Austrian armies advanced all the way to the gates of Vienna. The two things that saved the Hapsburgs was Bavarian and Spanish help, and the unwillingness of the other protestant states to fully back Frederick and the Palatinate (the way the book I was reading tells it, Saxony more or less allied with the Hapsburgs against the Protestant side).

So, lets say the Protestant states are able to maintain a more coherent opposition to the Hapsburgs (it seems like having a more militantly Protestant Elector of Saxony would be a start), and that after that, the Protestants have the same sort of luck the Austrians did-say, the rebellion in Transylvania is able to make a significant contribution to the Protestant armies in Austria, and the Protestants have a general on the level of, say, Tilly instead of mediocre people like Mansfield. So by 1621, instead of Frederick being kicked out of the Palatinate, Ferdinand is kicked out of Vienna.

So, what now? Ferdinand is still legally HRE, and still legally ruler of all the Austrian Duchies and Hungary. Bavaria is still Catholic, as are some of the Prince-Bishoprics. An intervention by one of the Catholic powers (Spain, Poland, maybe even France) is probably inevitable at some point. And the Protestants are going to have to keep their alliance together to deal with these challenges, when IOTL, they couldn't even do that for the war.

Any more thoughts? How likely is this scenario, and where might it lead?
 
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Valdemar II

Banned
I just got finished reading about the opening stages of the Thirty Years War, and what struck me was how...lucky the Hapsburgs were, or rather, how inept their enemies were. The majority of their nobility were protestant, and the estates of most of their realms-Bohemia, Austria, Hungary-all rebelled, and at one point, Bohemian and rebel Austrian armies advanced all the way to the gates of Vienna. The two things that saved the Hapsburgs was Bavarian and Spanish help, and the unwillingness of the other protestant states to fully back Frederick and the Palatinate (the way the book I was reading tells it, Saxony more or less allied with the Hapsburgs against the Protestant side).

So, lets say the Protestant states are able to maintain a more coherent opposition to the Hapsburgs (it seems like having a more militantly Protestant Elector of Saxony would be a start), and that after that, the Protestants have the same sort of luck the Austrians did-say, the rebellion in Transylvania is able to make a significant contribution to the Protestant armies in Austria, and the Protestants have a general on the level of, say, Tilly instead of mediocre people like Mansfield. So by 1621, instead of Frederick being kicked out of the Palatinate, Ferdinand is kicked out of Vienna.

So, what now? Ferdinand is still legally HRE, and still legally ruler of all the Austrian Duchies and Hungary. Bavaria is still Catholic, as are some of the Prince-Bishoprics. An intervention by one of the Catholic powers (Spain, Poland, maybe even France) is probably inevitable at some point. And the Protestants are going to have to keep their alliance together to deal with these challenges, when IOTL, they couldn't even do that for the war.

Any more thoughts? How likely is this scenario, and where might it lead?

If a French-Spanish-Polish alliance intervene on the imperial side, it will likely turn as ugly as OTL. But the big loser are going to be Poland, as Sweden will likely see a good oppotunity to invade a decade earlier and the local Protestant will likely support it, we will likely also see a Dutch-Danish alliance intervene on Protestant side, while the Danish intervention in OTL was a disaster, it would be much more successful if there wasn't people like Tilly to deal with it. The big winner are going to North germany which won't see imperial and Swedish armies duke it out.

I imagine we will see some kind of peace, where the Spanish possessions, Lorraine, Bavaria and Tyrol leave the HRE, and the Protestants elect a Emperor or King of Germany (could be the king of Denmark, Bohemia or the Elector of Saxony). The Spanish Possesion and Lorraine become the Kingdom of Burgundy (or some other name), While Bavaria and Tyrol together with North Italy become the new HRE.
 
I imagine we will see some kind of peace, where the Spanish possessions, Lorraine, Bavaria and Tyrol leave the HRE, and the Protestants elect a Emperor or King of Germany (could be the king of Denmark, Bohemia or the Elector of Saxony). The Spanish Possesion and Lorraine become the Kingdom of Burgundy (or some other name), While Bavaria and Tyrol together with North Italy become the new HRE.

An Imperial partition? I'm a bit surprised; even in OTL, after Westphalia the Empire retained a certain prestige and power up until the end.

I don't see why France would intervene to help Spain, though.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
An Imperial partition? I'm a bit surprised; even in OTL, after Westphalia the Empire retained a certain prestige and power up until the end.

I don't see why France would intervene to help Spain, though.

It's nopt to help France, it's a chance for a free buffee.

For the partipation, if the Austrian Habsburg lose Bohemia, they will also lose Austria leaving them only with Further Austria and Tyrol, there's no way the Protestants will accept a Catholic emperor at that point, so it's more that both sides claim to be the HRE, but the conflict more or less end with a the surviving Catholic states recognise the Habsburg Emperor, while the Protestants elect their own.
 

Perkeo

Banned
An Imperial partition? I'm a bit surprised; even in OTL, after Westphalia the Empire retained a certain prestige and power up until the end.

Prestige, yes, and indeed the de-jure continuation after Westphalia did stabilize central Europe to a certain degree. But as far as "power" means external and internal souvereignity, the HRE had been dying ever since the Late Millde Ages and was dead as a doornail after Westphalia.
 
I don't see why France would intervene to help Spain, though.

OTL France had a rather strong pro-Spanish lobby, which tended to be devoutly Catholic and believed France, as a Catholic nation, should ally with other Catholic countries against Protestant ones.

Given the Protestant successes posited in the OP, a complete Protestant victory might well result in the imposition of Protestantism throughout the HRE, a prospect that would strengthen the pro-Spanish lobby's hand. Conversely, the counterargument-that the Hapsburgs are so much of a threat to France that opposing them should trump religious concerns-becomes weaker.

Not saying French intervention on the Hapsburg/Catholic side is inevitable, but that its much more likely ITTL, and that the more successful the Protestants are, the more the likelihood of it goes up.
 
While Bavaria and Tyrol together with North Italy become the new HRE.

Northern Italy by this time had entirely stopped listening at all to the German Diets and were recognised as independent of the HRE in the Treaty of Westphalia at the same time as the Dutch were IIRC. The difference between the Dutch and them is that they had cut off communication with the Emperor about 300 years earlier, and had simply failed to receive de jure recognition of this fact. In such a scenario, they would have precisely zero intention of rejoining even a greatly-reduced, all-Catholic HRE. They valued their independence far too much.
 
So, thought about this, and came up with a more specific POD:

We're already positing a more anti-Hapsburg Elector of Saxony, who contributes much more to the Protestant cause than OTL. So, what if Saxony conspires with Count Thurn and the rest of the anti-Hapsburg Bohemian nobility? Specifically, what if, instead of Frederick the "Winter King", the Bohemian crown goes to Saxony?

I don't know the details, but I think Saxony would have more manpower, much closer to Bohemia, than the Palatinate did. And since the POD is a different Elector of Saxony, we can have him be an above-average diplomat and general.

Saxon troops besieging Vienna? After its fall, a Bohemian-Saxon-rebel Austrian invasion of Bavaria? Frederick of the Palatinate getting Bavarian lands, instead of the other way around? And of course, the Spanish, the Poles, and even the French are looking at these developments with extreme alarm, and preparing to do something about it...

So does this sound plausible so far?
 
And of course, the Spanish, the Poles, and even the French are looking at these developments with extreme alarm, and preparing to do something about it...
I still doubt the French would get involved. Some might want to support other Catholic powers, but many more fear the Habsburgs. Besides that, they have their own religious unrest. As we have seen that OTL they supported the protestants, I think it will be far more likely ITT they would decide not to get involved than do the exact opposite they did OTL. France doesn't have anything to gain for interefering after all. Fighting on the same site as the emperor and Spain, makes expansion into imperial lands or Spain most likely out of the question. I believe France will stay out and enjoys the show of its enemies weakening theirselves.
 
If the empire is pushed out of Bohemia, royal Hungary might then be lost to Bethlen Gabor's Transylvania. It's just about certain that he would have made the attempt.

For years, Spain had been gearing up for the end of the truce with the Dutch. They had been gathering and training a powerful army to retake the United Provinces. With this disaster to the eastern branch of the Hapsburgs unfolding, Spain would probably have decided (with much regret) to commit their forces to restoring the Austrian branch of the family and given up on the Netherlands, at least temporarily.

The combination of Tilly and the Bavarians and Spinola and the Spanish would have been a formidable military threat. The protestant alliance's best strategy would therefore have been to prevent the Spanish army from reaching Austria at all, which means getting Swiss (or French?) allies and shifting forces to the Alpine passes.

It's starting to feel like World War I. Like it or not, all the European countries are getting sucked in. Anyone want to take it from here?
 
If the empire is pushed out of Bohemia, royal Hungary might then be lost to Bethlen Gabor's Transylvania. It's just about certain that he would have made the attempt.

For years, Spain had been gearing up for the end of the truce with the Dutch. They had been gathering and training a powerful army to retake the United Provinces. With this disaster to the eastern branch of the Hapsburgs unfolding, Spain would probably have decided (with much regret) to commit their forces to restoring the Austrian branch of the family and given up on the Netherlands, at least temporarily.

The combination of Tilly and the Bavarians and Spinola and the Spanish would have been a formidable military threat. The protestant alliance's best strategy would therefore have been to prevent the Spanish army from reaching Austria at all, which means getting Swiss (or French?) allies and shifting forces to the Alpine passes.

It's starting to feel like World War I. Like it or not, all the European countries are getting sucked in. Anyone want to take it from here?

Well, the estates of Upper and Lower Austria rebelled, but in Inner Austria (Styria, Carinthia, Carinola), Protestantism had been suppressed in the first decade of the 17th century, and thus these territories were rather securely Hapsburg, absent any external invasion. And the other major Hapsburg territory, Tyrol, had actually stayed majority Catholic. Unfortunately for the Saxons and Bohemians, the Alpine passes are in in Tyrol and Inner Austria, so these territories would have to be invaded, taken, secured, and fortified before any Spanish intervention for an "Alpine strategy" to be an option, which seems to me like a rather tall order. Otherwise, the initial battles between the Hapsburg and Saxon coalitions will likely be in the lowlands of Upper and Lower Austria, which, from a quick glance at a map, look somewhat less favorable to the defenders.

Another thing that will be important is how many of the other Protestant states will rally to support Saxony. I understand Brandenburg and Saxony had something of a rivalry, so Brandenburg might be hesitent. But about Palatinate, Hesse, and the other Protestant states, I'm honestly unsure. Is it possible that Saxony could induce Palatinate to attack Bavaria by promising them Bavarian territory afterwards?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Well, the estates of Upper and Lower Austria rebelled, but in Inner Austria (Styria, Carinthia, Carinola), Protestantism had been suppressed in the first decade of the 17th century, and thus these territories were rather securely Hapsburg, absent any external invasion. And the other major Hapsburg territory, Tyrol, had actually stayed majority Catholic. Unfortunately for the Saxons and Bohemians, the Alpine passes are in in Tyrol and Inner Austria, so these territories would have to be invaded, taken, secured, and fortified before any Spanish intervention for an "Alpine strategy" to be an option, which seems to me like a rather tall order. Otherwise, the initial battles between the Hapsburg and Saxon coalitions will likely be in the lowlands of Upper and Lower Austria, which, from a quick glance at a map, look somewhat less favorable to the defenders.

Another thing that will be important is how many of the other Protestant states will rally to support Saxony. I understand Brandenburg and Saxony had something of a rivalry, so Brandenburg might be hesitent. But about Palatinate, Hesse, and the other Protestant states, I'm honestly unsure. Is it possible that Saxony could induce Palatinate to attack Bavaria by promising them Bavarian territory afterwards?

That's a rather good point, the Saxons with their intolerance toward other Protestant including less strict Lutherans wasn't a popular state. While Brandenburg doesn't matter at this point (the Brandenburgian army was really pathetic at the time), the Palatinate likely don't see with mild eyes on the Saxons.
 
That's a rather good point, the Saxons with their intolerance toward other Protestant including less strict Lutherans wasn't a popular state. While Brandenburg doesn't matter at this point (the Brandenburgian army was really pathetic at the time), the Palatinate likely don't see with mild eyes on the Saxons.

So, specific POD: Looking through family trees on Wikipedia, I noticed that Louis VI of Palatinate had a lot of daughters who died in infancy. Lets have one survive and be married off to Elector Christian I of Saxony (father of John George, the elector during the Thirty Years War). Now, lets have Christian I's wife be a Crypto-Calvinist, or at least be rather sympathetic to Calvinism (she comes from a partially Calvinist family so I don't think this is all that implausible). Thus, alt-Elector Christian II and his brother, alt-Elector John George, have a worldview that is less strictly Lutheran, and are more inclined to see all Protestants as potential allies against Catholicism and the Hapsburgs.
 
Well, the estates of Upper and Lower Austria rebelled, but in Inner Austria (Styria, Carinthia, Carinola), Protestantism had been suppressed in the first decade of the 17th century, and thus these territories were rather securely Hapsburg, absent any external invasion. And the other major Hapsburg territory, Tyrol, had actually stayed majority Catholic. Unfortunately for the Saxons and Bohemians, the Alpine passes are in in Tyrol and Inner Austria, so these territories would have to be invaded, taken, secured, and fortified before any Spanish intervention for an "Alpine strategy" to be an option, which seems to me like a rather tall order. Otherwise, the initial battles between the Hapsburg and Saxon coalitions will likely be in the lowlands of Upper and Lower Austria, which, from a quick glance at a map, look somewhat less favorable to the defenders.

Another thing that will be important is how many of the other Protestant states will rally to support Saxony. I understand Brandenburg and Saxony had something of a rivalry, so Brandenburg might be hesitent. But about Palatinate, Hesse, and the other Protestant states, I'm honestly unsure. Is it possible that Saxony could induce Palatinate to attack Bavaria by promising them Bavarian territory afterwards?

The Spanish army didn't go that way in OTL; they were assembled in Milanese territory and went through the western passes to the Rhineland (because they were en route to the Netherlands). I suspect that an eastern route wouldn't have been all that easy, either, because there was much diplomatic and military manoevering to get access through the Val Telline pass in eastern Switzerland -- why bother if there was an easy route in the Tyrol?

If the eastern passes terminate in Venetian territory, that would be a problem -- Venice was not pro-Hapsburg. It would, however, have liked some help if it was to keep the Spanish army out.

German allies: In a lackluster way, Brandenburg followed Saxony's lead in OTL -- it wasn't the driving force it became a generation later. So long as its Electors, John Sigismund then George William, aren't expected to be dynamic, you can plausibly enlist it on the Saxon side.

The Palatinate and Hesse would sign on. Frederick V's father had formed the Protestant Union, and this fight is in alignment with its purposes. Hesse-Cassel was actively involved on the protestant side throughout most of the 30 Years War.
 
We're already positing a more anti-Hapsburg Elector of Saxony, who contributes much more to the Protestant cause than OTL. So, what if Saxony conspires with Count Thurn and the rest of the anti-Hapsburg Bohemian nobility? Specifically, what if, instead of Frederick the "Winter King", the Bohemian crown goes to Saxony?

Just an idea: instead of changing John George's mind, why not making him die childless and so replace him by other elector who could be more anti-Habsburg and wouldn't mind allying himself with the Calvinists? Any idea of who would be be new Elector if he had died childless before 1618?
 
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