WI: Hannibal victorious at Zama

What if Hannibal beats Scipio Africanus at Zama? Does Carthage still lose the 2nd Punic War? Would a victory at Zama change how we view Hannibal and Scipio as generals?
 
What if Hannibal beats Scipio Africanus at Zama? Does Carthage still lose the 2nd Punic War? Would a victory at Zama change how we view Hannibal and Scipio as generals?

1) Yes. By Zama the question is on what terms Carthage is forced to submit.

2) Possibly.
 
I'd say they'd still lose, but not a complete dismemberment like it was. What would it take for Carthage to win the war?

Supporting the war effort to the hilt, like Rome's senate did.

Ideally better generals - outside Hannibal, the Carthaginian record isn't very good.
 
Supporting the war effort to the hilt, like Rome's senate did.

Ideally better generals - outside Hannibal, the Carthaginian record isn't very good.

Alternatively, a Rome that isn't entirely insane; any other culture would have sued for peace after Trebia, Trasimene, and Cannae. If the Romans are willing to bend a little, then Carthage can win.
 
Alternatively, a Rome that isn't entirely insane; any other culture would have sued for peace after Trebia, Trasimene, and Cannae. If the Romans are willing to bend a little, then Carthage can win.

I'm not sure I'd call it insane. Rome won the Second Punic War pretty thoroughly despite those defeats - hardly a result of insanity.
 
I'm not sure I'd call it insane. Rome won the Second Punic War pretty thoroughly despite those defeats - hardly a result of insanity.

Instead of insanity, it'd be more apt to call the Romans tenacious, even perhaps a little stubborn, especially when it comes to foreign armies in their own heartland.

As for Hannibal winning in Zama, it's possible but it won't do much good for Carthage. All of the Barcid's conquests in Hispania have now gone to Rome and it would stay Roman. Maybe, and just maybe the provision that Carthage not be allowed to wage war without the consent of Rome would be removed.

Maybe there will be a Third Punic War, or maybe it'll continue as a fairly rich city, though subordinate in military power to Rome. If there's a conflict similar to the Social War between Rome and her Italian allies, perhaps Carthage will ally itself with the Italians and thus you would have a final clash there.
 
I'm not sure I'd call it insane. Rome won the Second Punic War pretty thoroughly despite those defeats - hardly a result of insanity.

Perhaps insane was an unfortunate turn of phrase, but Rome did press on through casualties which were nearly unheard of to confront - or decidedly not confront - an undefeated general rampaging through the Italian peninsula.
 
Instead of insanity, it'd be more apt to call the Romans tenacious, even perhaps a little stubborn, especially when it comes to foreign armies in their own heartland.

As for Hannibal winning in Zama, it's possible but it won't do much good for Carthage. All of the Barcid's conquests in Hispania have now gone to Rome and it would stay Roman. Maybe, and just maybe the provision that Carthage not be allowed to wage war without the consent of Rome would be removed.

Maybe there will be a Third Punic War, or maybe it'll continue as a fairly rich city, though subordinate in military power to Rome. If there's a conflict similar to the Social War between Rome and her Italian allies, perhaps Carthage will ally itself with the Italians and thus you would have a final clash there.

It is correct that Carrhage and Hannibal decided to risk the battle at Zama in order to obtain less harsh conditions for peace in a war they had strategically lost.

But a carthaginian victory at Zama could have changed many things.

First of all the let's say "traditionnalist" party would have regained the edge over supporters of young Scipio's strategy.

Secondly if Scipio had been dead at Zama (suicide because defeat would have ruined his political reputation and he would have faced a devastating prosecution), the areas of Spain which Rome had freshly conquered would most certainly have revolted (they almost did on the mere rumor that young Scipio, to whom they were personnally attached, had died from illness) and taken back their independance.
 
Would it take another victory like Cannae to get a peace on Carthaginian terms? Hannibal was a brilliant tactical general and if the southern italian states rebelled again, it could be possible for favorable peace.
 

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Would it take another victory like Cannae to get a peace on Carthaginian terms? Hannibal was a brilliant tactical general and if the southern italian states rebelled again, it could be possible for favorable peace.

Problem is that the Romans had taken most of Hannibals lessons to heart by the time of Zama, fielding competent, occasionally cautious armies with a lot of manpower and experience amongst them.
 
Would it take another victory like Cannae to get a peace on Carthaginian terms? Hannibal was a brilliant tactical general and if the southern italian states rebelled again, it could be possible for favorable peace.

Romans lost several battles at Cannae-like levels - Lake Trasimene, Trebia, and Cannae were all severe defeats. The Romans were definitely near despair, so a fourth monumental defeat might do it. However, before Cannae they had the dictatorship of Fabius Maximus who showed Rome that there was a strategy they could use to avoid defeat, and that since Hannibal lacked the means to lay siege to Rome itself that they could buy time while they defeated elsewhere. The Romans didn't like Fabius' strategy, but that lead to Cannae.

After the Battle of Cannae, everyone agreed that Fabius's guidelines were to be followed, and no one was going to risk a open battle with Hannibal again. Therefore it is highly unlikely Hannibal will ever get a chance for yet another astounding victory at the level of these.
 
Also if there is one lesson to be learned from Hannibal's campaign against Rome its that the Romans will simply not quit no matter how dire the situation gets. Even if they had been defeated they would just return again and again until everyone was crushed.
 
Also if there is one lesson to be learned from Hannibal's campaign against Rome its that the Romans will simply not quit no matter how dire the situation gets. Even if they had been defeated they would just return again and again until everyone was crushed.

I'm not sure that's necessarily true indefinitely. Rome could absorb the losses it took OTL, double that (more than Zama and more than was possible by Zama) would be crippling.
 
O well of course it wouldn't be indefinite. Just saying they could definitely take a few more heavy hits if it came down to it.
 
It could have changed great many things. There are many variables here to consider, but if Hannibal's victory could've given the Barcids near-absolute control over Carthage, it's possible, though somewhat unlikely, that Carthage could've gotten a far better peace treaty, whereby at least North Africa remained explicitly within Carthaginian sphere (i.e. Rome is explicitly forbidden to interfere with or enter into alliance with North African powers). For Rome to have prevailed, two things were needed: naval blockade and landward investment of Carthage. However, while a blockade was a given, an investment would not have worked without battlefield mastery in North Africa. Hence, Fabian strategy is out the window. To invest Carthage, Rome had to defeat Carthage's field army and if Hannibal could continue to defeat Roman armies (a very real possibility if Scipio was killed at Zama), Carthage and at least Tunisia could hold out, as long as Rome could at any rate, leading to a stalemate hopefully for Carthage, a more favorable peace. Moreover, a de facto Barcid kingship in Carthage combined with unfettered control over North Africa would've in time made Carthage even more dangerous than before the 2nd Punic War. Let's not forget that Carthage rebounded back so well after IRL 2nd Punic War, despite losing N Africa outside of Tunisia and all of Spain, that Rome decided to erase it off the map eventually. A Hannibal-led Carthage with firm control over Numidia would not have been so easy to wipe off the map.
 
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