alternatehistory.com



If you didn't know, Haiti under iron grip of dictator "Papa Doc" Duvalier and the neighboring Dominican Republic, under the leadership of recently elected leftist Juan Bosch almost came to war.

Duvalier’s relationship with the neighboringDominican Republic was always tense: in his early years, Duvalier emphasized the differences between the two countries. In April 1963, relations were brought to the edge of war by the political enmity between Duvalier and Dominican president Juan Bosch. Bosch, a leftist, provided asylum and support to Haitian exiles who had plotted against the Duvalier regime. Duvalier ordered his Presidential Guard to occupy the Dominican Embassy in Pétionville, with the goal of arresting a Haitian army officer believed to have been involved in Barbot’s plot to kidnap Duvalier’s children. The Dominican president reacted with outrage, publicly threatened to invade Haiti, and ordered army units to the border. However, as Dominican military commanders expressed little support for an invasion of Haiti, Bosch refrained from the invasion and sought mediation through the OAS.[3]:289

But let's say it played out slightly differently, with the DR military command responding with excitement over the possible invasion setting the stage for an armed conflict.

Now on the ground Haiti had no military outside of the Tonton Macoute militia. These where fiercely loyal to the Duvalier but lacked the training of a legitimate army.

In 1959, Duvalier created a rural militia, theVolontaires de la Sécurité Nationale (VSN, English: National Security Volunteer [Militia])—commonly referred to as the Tonton Macoute after a Haitian Creole term for bogeyman

While on the opposite side of the spectrum the Dominican Republic had a legitimate army with a disciplined command structure drilled firmly with an anti-Haitian racist dogma. Unfortunately though, Bosch did not have the support of most in the military at the time, leading him to be the victim of a coup IOTL later in 1963

On September 25, 1963, after only seven months in office, Bosch was overthrown in a coup led by Colonel Elías Wessin and replaced by a three-man military junta. Bosch went back to exile in Puerto Rico.

So with all this in mind, if a full fledged war were to break out...

Who would win and why?
Top