WI Hadrian had abandoned Britannia

Title. Rome had net money gain provinces and "sink" provinces. The latter being mostly border provinces that hosted legions thus taking a disproportionate amount of the state expenditure.
Now some of these were necessary. You needed to have Germania to secure Gaul. But what about Britain?

The whole of Roman Britain after its conquest produced only about 11 million sesterces in revenues whereas the city of Alexandria in Egypt alone generated roughly 36 million sesterces. And it was troublesome to defend.

So, what if instead of building Hadrian's wall, Hadrian had completely abandoned the province along with Mesopotamia? Would this have made for a more secure frontier? Would Rome be better off? What about Britain itself?
 
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dcharles

Banned
Title. Rome had net money gain provinces and "sink" provinces. The latter being mostly border provinces that hosted legions thus taking a disproportionate amount of the state expenditure.
Now some of these were necessary. You needed to have Germania to secure Gaul. But what about Britain?

The whole of Roman Britain after its conquest produced only about 11 million sesterces in revenues whereas the city of Alexandria in Egypt alone generated roughly 36 million sesterces. And it was troublesome to defend.

So, what if instead of building Hadrian's wall, Hadrian had completely abandoned the province along with Mesopotamia? Would Rome be better off? What about Britain itself?

If Rome set up some sort of client state in lieu of occupation, that would hardly seem to be a worse outcome for them, at least from the point of view of the ledgers. From the point of view of Rome's enemies, that might be a pretty big blow to Roman prestige, so it's hardly a win-win.

As far as old Britannia goes, they might be better off too. The Saxon and associated migrations happened pretty quickly after the Romans left OTL. Britannia having quite a bit more time to establish a stable balance of power between whatever polities took control of the island might make it a far more resilient place when the migration period does roll around TTL.
 
It would have been a political suicide for any emperor to abandon a province occupied for 60 years by then where a number of his compatriots were living and under minimal pressure from an external foe. Especially, given the fact, that a great deal of his legitimacy derives from his capacity to be a succesfull military leader.
 
It would have been a political suicide for any emperor to abandon a province occupied for 60 years by then where a number of his compatriots were living and under minimal pressure from an external foe. Especially, given the fact, that a great deal of his legitimacy derives from his capacity to be a succesfull military leader.
But he already did abandon Mesopotamia, right? Though I am fine with Hadrian taking the fall, as long as the next emperor doesn't just re-enter Britain. You could also have reasons such as a Pictish invasion or a second Boudicca
 
But he already did abandon Mesopotamia, right? Though I am fine with Hadrian taking the fall, as long as the next emperor doesn't just re-enter Britain. You could also have reasons such as a Pictish invasion or a second Boudicca
It is not the same. Mesopotamia was still a fresh province, an "extravagance" from an otherwise austere emperor. It can be presented as a succesful raid that has achieved its goals and now it is time to take into considerations the strategical situation and abandon the territory.
It involved just the movement of troops not of whole populations or leaving your people to fend for themselves among the barbarians.

Regarding the external foe, it is unlikely that, at the height of its political power, the Roman Empire can be challenged by the politically fragmented Pictish tribes or by some local celtic warlord who after 60 years manages to rally a significant group of antiroman suporteri.
 

Dagoth Ur

Banned
It is not the same. Mesopotamia was still a fresh province, an "extravagance" from an otherwise austere emperor. It can be presented as a succesful raid that has achieved its goals and now it is time to take into considerations the strategical situation and abandon the territory.
It involved just the movement of troops not of whole populations or leaving your people to fend for themselves among the barbarians.

Regarding the external foe, it is unlikely that, at the height of its political power, the Roman Empire can be challenged by the politically fragmented Pictish tribes or by some local celtic warlord who after 60 years manages to rally a significant group of antiroman suporteri.
Exactly right, you can't make an analogy to Britannia using Mesopotamia. The comparison to Alexandria and Britannia, too, is skewed. Take into consideration trade, climate, population, etc. and now it's a lot harder to judge and say Britannia province wasn't worth it. There were huge tin deposits there, and the population was low enough and hostile groups small enough that there probably weren't many legions required though I could be wrong.
 
Exactly right, you can't make an analogy to Britannia using Mesopotamia. The comparison to Alexandria and Britannia, too, is skewed. Take into consideration trade, climate, population, etc. and now it's a lot harder to judge and say Britannia province wasn't worth it. There were huge tin deposits there, and the population was low enough and hostile groups small enough that there probably weren't many legions required though I could be wrong.
On the topic of defense, Britannia was a huge problem for Rome. Roman Britain had 40,000 auxiliaries stationed there, which was the highest of any Roman province. Despite having a significantly shorter border than the Lower Germanic Limes, Roman Britain had 3 entire legions, which is the same amount as said Limes had. That altogether implies a rather difficult time securing the province, and those numbers come from the 2nd century.
 
On the topic of defense, Britannia was a huge problem for Rome. Roman Britain had 40,000 auxiliaries stationed there, which was the highest of any Roman province. Despite having a significantly shorter border than the Lower Germanic Limes, Roman Britain had 3 entire legions, which is the same amount as said Limes had. That altogether implies a rather difficult time securing the province, and those numbers come from the 2nd century.

This is a really interesting link. I didn't realise there were so many auxiliaries stationed there.

I wonder why they didn't use them to fully conquer both Scotland and Ireland. They knew that the islands were islands so surely it would have made strategic sense just to conquer the rest of the islands so not to worry about a land border.

It makes me think that the population of Scotland was much, much higher than we imagine.

Regards,

Northstar
 

Dagoth Ur

Banned
On the topic of defense, Britannia was a huge problem for Rome. Roman Britain had 40,000 auxiliaries stationed there, which was the highest of any Roman province. Despite having a significantly shorter border than the Lower Germanic Limes, Roman Britain had 3 entire legions, which is the same amount as said Limes had. That altogether implies a rather difficult time securing the province, and those numbers come from the 2nd century.
Oh wow, gotta agree with Northstar. I had no idea so many legions were stationed there. Maybe Britannia really wasn't worth it economically. I just read more about it and more revenue might have come in by keeping some southern Britannian client kings, who were good trading partners and sought Roman luxury items. Thanks for the information. I guess I had a preconception that Britannia was easy because it was mentioned so little and, after Agricola, there were basically no campaigns there. All the emperors' attentions were directed to the Rhine, Danube, and Euphrates borders.
 
Oh wow, gotta agree with Northstar. I had no idea so many legions were stationed there. Maybe Britannia really wasn't worth it economically. I just read more about it and more revenue might have come in by keeping some southern Britannian client kings, who were good trading partners and sought Roman luxury items. Thanks for the information. I guess I had a preconception that Britannia was easy because it was mentioned so little and, after Agricola, there were basically no campaigns there. All the emperors' attentions were directed to the Rhine, Danube, and Euphrates borders.
Exactly, these auxiliaries would do better to guard the Rhine, while more Roman settlers could be settled in Gaul and help with assimilation.
 
Exactly, these auxiliaries would do better to guard the Rhine, while more Roman settlers could be settled in Gaul and help with assimilation.
I suspect Roman settlers in Britannia is exactly why the possibility of retreating and trying to rely on an autonomous client regime was not considered. I am unaware of the Romans ever abandoning territory that had been long claimed by Rome--instances of retreat do come to mind--Mesopotamia of course, also I have the impression "Arabia Felix" (part of Yemen) might have been claimed as a province briefly, and I gather there was a stretch of territory beyond the Rhine held briefly then abandoned, and of course in Britain itself there is the territory between Hadrian's Wall and Antoine's Wall that, despite the fact that the latter Wall was shorter, seems to have been unsustainable--which suggests that conquering Picts was very unprofitable.

It did seem to me the obvious answer to a high cost of maintaining legions in Britannia would be expansion, to secure Caledonia and perhaps also Hibernia though the latter is tricky because it involves forcing a landing somewhere--I'd think perhaps politics with suitably interested Irish petty kings might give them a lodging to expand out of, and while I would expect Hibernia to be poorer in terms of extractable revenue than Britannia, still it is better land and more population than Caledonia! The concept would be that while expansion costs even more legions initially, once there is definitively no more borderland (the Norse would prove this concept erroneous eventually, but the Viking era is half a thousand years and more out, and they probably can't do a "Proto-Viking" era earlier) then the demand for legions and auxiliaries would drop, freeing them up for use on the Continent.

Apparently though, given the abandonment of the brief northward extension of Britannia, demand would not drop to zero! I guess that even at the peak of Roman power in Britannia, it was a matter of some towns and regions strongly Romanized, with a scattering of Romanized people elsewhere, but lots of petty power centers of Britons who did not revolt en masse, but were only grudgingly reconciled to the regime and stood to create some unrest unless cowed by the ongoing legionary presence. Also a certain amount of disorder in even more retail form, of bandits and pirates etc, really a smoldering form of the above Britannic resistance. If the Picts north of Hadrian's Wall were even less subdued, it might have seemed that the day of peace would never come, and that might or might not have been correct. My reasoning was that if conquering Caledonia and Hibernia were marginal, still there would be more revenue if scanty, and the net cost of peacekeeping force might come down after a few generations. But even if one could prove to Hadrian or whomever that this would happen in 50 or 60 years, it is the current Emperor's problem to pay for what is necessary today.

But meanwhile, unlike these other brief extensions of Imperial power, Britannia had been settled for some time by some Romans. I suppose few were attracted to the colder and wetter climate versus the Mediterranean or even Gaul, but some were, and some Britons Romanized. Once a substantial population of people who identified as Roman citizens were settled in Britain, the Emperor could not simply walk away from them or tell them to fend for themselves. Telling a patrician family with a history of service to the Empire that defending their Romanized lifestyle was now their problem would either result in their being effectively destroyed as Romanized persons if not existentially, or else, if these patricians and Romanized Briton gentry were to pull together and organize a sustainable Romanized state, then that's an example for all other provincial notables that they too can probably shrug off Imperial pretenses and run their local show their own way without reference to distant Rome. Either way, it is a huge blow to the soft power of Roman prestige and thus unthinkable to any Emperor as a matter of deliberate policy; even the eventual withdrawal of the last legion was not intended to be a permanent abandonment but a temporary expedient for some scheming general seeking the Imperial purple, reasoning that of course the legions would come back to Britain once the Empire was in his more capable hands. It turned permanent of course because Roman power was on the decline.

The point being, Rome abandoning or losing control of long held territory is in fact Roman decline.
 
I suspect Roman settlers in Britannia is exactly why the possibility of retreating and trying to rely on an autonomous client regime was not considered. I am unaware of the Romans ever abandoning territory that had been long claimed by Rome--instances of retreat do come to mind--Mesopotamia of course, also I have the impression "Arabia Felix" (part of Yemen) might have been claimed as a province briefly, and I gather there was a stretch of territory beyond the Rhine held briefly then abandoned, and of course in Britain itself there is the territory between Hadrian's Wall and Antoine's Wall that, despite the fact that the latter Wall was shorter, seems to have been unsustainable--which suggests that conquering Picts was very unprofitable.

It did seem to me the obvious answer to a high cost of maintaining legions in Britannia would be expansion, to secure Caledonia and perhaps also Hibernia though the latter is tricky because it involves forcing a landing somewhere--I'd think perhaps politics with suitably interested Irish petty kings might give them a lodging to expand out of, and while I would expect Hibernia to be poorer in terms of extractable revenue than Britannia, still it is better land and more population than Caledonia! The concept would be that while expansion costs even more legions initially, once there is definitively no more borderland (the Norse would prove this concept erroneous eventually, but the Viking era is half a thousand years and more out, and they probably can't do a "Proto-Viking" era earlier) then the demand for legions and auxiliaries would drop, freeing them up for use on the Continent.

Apparently though, given the abandonment of the brief northward extension of Britannia, demand would not drop to zero! I guess that even at the peak of Roman power in Britannia, it was a matter of some towns and regions strongly Romanized, with a scattering of Romanized people elsewhere, but lots of petty power centers of Britons who did not revolt en masse, but were only grudgingly reconciled to the regime and stood to create some unrest unless cowed by the ongoing legionary presence. Also a certain amount of disorder in even more retail form, of bandits and pirates etc, really a smoldering form of the above Britannic resistance. If the Picts north of Hadrian's Wall were even less subdued, it might have seemed that the day of peace would never come, and that might or might not have been correct. My reasoning was that if conquering Caledonia and Hibernia were marginal, still there would be more revenue if scanty, and the net cost of peacekeeping force might come down after a few generations. But even if one could prove to Hadrian or whomever that this would happen in 50 or 60 years, it is the current Emperor's problem to pay for what is necessary today.

But meanwhile, unlike these other brief extensions of Imperial power, Britannia had been settled for some time by some Romans. I suppose few were attracted to the colder and wetter climate versus the Mediterranean or even Gaul, but some were, and some Britons Romanized. Once a substantial population of people who identified as Roman citizens were settled in Britain, the Emperor could not simply walk away from them or tell them to fend for themselves. Telling a patrician family with a history of service to the Empire that defending their Romanized lifestyle was now their problem would either result in their being effectively destroyed as Romanized persons if not existentially, or else, if these patricians and Romanized Briton gentry were to pull together and organize a sustainable Romanized state, then that's an example for all other provincial notables that they too can probably shrug off Imperial pretenses and run their local show their own way without reference to distant Rome. Either way, it is a huge blow to the soft power of Roman prestige and thus unthinkable to any Emperor as a matter of deliberate policy; even the eventual withdrawal of the last legion was not intended to be a permanent abandonment but a temporary expedient for some scheming general seeking the Imperial purple, reasoning that of course the legions would come back to Britain once the Empire was in his more capable hands. It turned permanent of course because Roman power was on the decline.

The point being, Rome abandoning or losing control of long held territory is in fact Roman decline.
Yes I see, thats why it is sad, because policy is being guided by prestige and presentation considerations. Thats why I chose Hadrian, because he was one of the few who might have the guts. Alternatively there is the possibility of abandoning it after Boudicca's rebellion, when most of the settlers were dead.

As for conquest of Caledonia, I don't think that is a one-and-done thing. Even after one time conquest it is too too far from Rome and the terrain too hostile for continued presence
 
Dacia was willingly abandoned by Aurelian, out of strategic considerations, after well over a century of Roman rule. In other words, this is not inconceivable, although it is worth noting that Roman Britain was far more defensible than Dacia.
 

Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
Title. Rome had net money gain provinces and "sink" provinces. The latter being mostly border provinces that hosted legions thus taking a disproportionate amount of the state expenditure.
Now some of these were necessary. You needed to have Germania to secure Gaul. But what about Britain?

The whole of Roman Britain after its conquest produced only about 11 million sesterces in revenues whereas the city of Alexandria in Egypt alone generated roughly 36 million sesterces. And it was troublesome to defend.

So, what if instead of building Hadrian's wall, Hadrian had completely abandoned the province along with Mesopotamia? Would this have made for a more secure frontier? Would Rome be better off? What about Britain itself?
Better idea: Finish the conquest of Britain and also occupy Ireland. After roughly 100 years, the islands should be pacified, so by 200 CE, you could transfer at least the legions to the continent to help defend the Rhine and the Danube without having to fear raids coming from across the Channel.
 
Better idea: Finish the conquest of Britain and also occupy Ireland. After roughly 100 years, the islands should be pacified, so by 200 CE, you could transfer at least the legions to the continent to help defend the Rhine and the Danube without having to fear raids coming from across the Channel.
If it could have been conquered than it would have. Antonine went into Caledonia and even built another wall at the best chokepoint in the isles, but had to pull back regardless
 
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Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
If it could have been conquered than it would have. Antoine went into Caledonia and even built another wall at the best chokepoint in the isles, but had to pull back regardless
Agricola hat Caledonia under his control but was called back by Domitian because he was becoming to powerful to control by Rome.
 
Dacia was willingly abandoned by Aurelian, out of strategic considerations, after well over a century of Roman rule. In other words, this is not inconceivable, although it is worth noting that Roman Britain was far more defensible than Dacia.
Dacia was abandoned while the ongoing third century crisis was ongoing, ie Rome had lost half the empire, the entire northern border was under constant pressure, and it was STILL highly contentious and unpopular. So much so that Aurelian literally renamed another part of the Empire Dacia so it could be claimed that Dacia was still inside the border.
 
This is a really interesting link. I didn't realise there were so many auxiliaries stationed there.

I wonder why they didn't use them to fully conquer both Scotland and Ireland. They knew that the islands were islands so surely it would have made strategic sense just to conquer the rest of the islands so not to worry about a land border.

It makes me think that the population of Scotland was much, much higher than we imagine.

Regards,

Northstar
The usual devil, logistics.
Most of the Roman conquests were reasonably close to the Mediterranean and usually at the expense of well-organized polities (such as Dacia, for example).
The Romans met stiff resistance in England, but it was closer to the usual supply lines and had preexistent polities that supported it and could pillage for forage, when needed; but the more they went North, the higher the maintenance costs were and the less organized enemies they could take on, forcing them to choose a point and stop. despite repeated attempt to get it done. And of course, without a stable northern border (or no border at all, of course), no serious thought could've been given to attacking Ireland in earnest, especially when the focus of the Empire definitely shifted to the defense rather than offense.
 

Dagoth Ur

Banned
Resurrecting this to share something I read recently. Based on the discussion I think we determined that on the balance of things Britannia was not a really productive province for the empire, and was maybe even a net drain, requiring four legions to garrison.
However what I read is, in the hundred years after Caesar's conquest of Gaul, Britannia was a hotbed of revolt against Rome. A refuge for fugitives, the new center of Druidic thought and Celtic culture, and very able to make quick and expensive raids across the Channel. Possibly conquering and holding Britannia, at least until Gaul was mostly Romanized, was worth it considering the now lower cost of peacefully governing Gaul.
 
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