WI: Habsburgs win the Seven Years War.

I may be wrong and most definitely am biased. But I understood the annexation of Spisz county to be considered a separate event that was later added/snowballed into/confirmed by the partition and thought to be something of quid pro quo for allowing the bar confederation operate from bases in the Habsburg realms (I think present day Slovakia).

Then the salt mines came later when the partition was agreed upon

Yes, as I keep saying, this annexation happened before an official agreement regarding the 1st Partition. Which makes argument about MT being reluctantly dragged into the partitioning idea rather hard to accept.

Not sure about its linkage to the Bar Confederation: it was acting against the regime so why would the regime compensate Austria for supporting the hostile actions against it?

As for the salt mines, Soloviev explicitly mentioned them as a part of the territory occupied in 1770. While he can be considered generally biased, he is considered quite reliable as far as the solid facts were involved.
 
Impossible to tell for sure about PIII but (a) Saxon candidate was considered pro-Austrian both by the Russians and Prussians and (b) PIII would listen to Fritz even more than his widow did. You can figure out the rest.

I was imagining if the Tsaritsa died late and Peter wasn't deposed. So Fritz wouldn't be in the picture.
 
I was imagining if the Tsaritsa died late and Peter wasn't deposed. So Fritz wouldn't be in the picture.

Russian purpose of the war, as officially formulated in the document of Conference (council of ministers) was to weaken Prussia to a degree that prevents it from competing with Russia for influence in the PLC. It was proposed that Silesia should go to Austria and East Prussia to PLC with Russia being compensated by Courland and perhaps some piece of Ukraine. There was nothing about removing Prussia from the map or cutting its size any further. So, even by that optimistic plan Fritz would be in the picture after the war.

In the process of war Russia occupied East Prussia and its population was ordered to swear loyalty to Elizabeth (PLC schema was clearly forgotten). However, during the last year of Elizabeth’s life fighting on the Prussian territory almost completely ceased: the last significant operation was capture of Kolberg to provide supply of the Russian troops by the sea. Cooperation with the Austrians shrunk to a minimum and Russian commander in chief saw his duty as preserving the soldiers by doing nothing. Fritz used situation to improve his position against Austrians and it was clear that even his possession of Silesia is not really at risk. Attitudes changed after Kunersdorf when Russians became pissed off with what looked as Daun’s inactivity and inability to provide them with the adequate supplies and they were going from bad to worse.

So, if Elizabeth lives longer, the Russian army is being present more as observation force than as a real and present danger even if Buturlin would be eventually forced to imitate activity.
 
And as for Fritz, short of his physical death, he still would be in the picture.

I do wonder about Frederick's personal fate in this scenario. There's the story of Frederick, in the wake of the Battle of Hochkirch, showing his secretary Henri de Catt a box of opium pills "to finish the play, when it becomes unbearable." One wonders whether he really was serious, and if so, whether a defeat in the SYW - even a 'moderate' defeat in which only Silesia is lost (and perhaps a few other bits on the periphery) - would be "unbearable" enough for Frederick to end it all.

TBH his death might actually be helpful to Prussia at the peace table, given that a significant part of the ill feeling towards Prussia was really ill will towards Frederick, who had demonstrated himself to be ambitious, faithless, and predatory. I expect that Prussia in the hands of the teenage FW2, particularly once shorn of Silesia, would not seem nearly so threatening as Prussia still in Frederick's hands, however diminished.
 
I was thinking that if the French wants to strengthen another German state as a counter to Austria, and the British are unwilling to make a deal where they give something back for Hanover. Whether it wouldn’t make sense for France to give Hanover to the Saxons (together with Magdeburg and Altmark). It would create a large counter to the Habsburgs.
 
Russian purpose of the war, as officially formulated in the document of Conference (council of ministers) was to weaken Prussia to a degree that prevents it from competing with Russia for influence in the PLC. It was proposed that Silesia should go to Austria and East Prussia to PLC with Russia being compensated by Courland and perhaps some piece of Ukraine. There was nothing about removing Prussia from the map or cutting its size any further. So, even by that optimistic plan Fritz would be in the picture after the war.

In the process of war Russia occupied East Prussia and its population was ordered to swear loyalty to Elizabeth (PLC schema was clearly forgotten). However, during the last year of Elizabeth’s life fighting on the Prussian territory almost completely ceased: the last significant operation was capture of Kolberg to provide supply of the Russian troops by the sea. Cooperation with the Austrians shrunk to a minimum and Russian commander in chief saw his duty as preserving the soldiers by doing nothing. Fritz used situation to improve his position against Austrians and it was clear that even his possession of Silesia is not really at risk. Attitudes changed after Kunersdorf when Russians became pissed off with what looked as Daun’s inactivity and inability to provide them with the adequate supplies and they were going from bad to worse.

So, if Elizabeth lives longer, the Russian army is being present more as observation force than as a real and present danger even if Buturlin would be eventually forced to imitate activity.

Unless I'm very mistaken, Austria was in occupation of Silesia at the time of Elizabeth's death.

If Prussia loses both East Prussia and Silesia, there is no way Fritz stays on as King. He either commits suicide or abdicates. It doesn't need to be wiped from the map. A rump Brandenburg would be one third of Prussia's former size and no longer considered a European power.
 
Unless I'm very mistaken, Austria was in occupation of Silesia at the time of Elizabeth's death.

If Prussia loses both East Prussia and Silesia, there is no way Fritz stays on as King. He either commits suicide or abdicates. It doesn't need to be wiped from the map. A rump Brandenburg would be one third of Prussia's former size and no longer considered a European power.

But by the end of war (IIRC) Prussia was holding Saxony and by 1763 it retook Silesia. Now, we can speculate on how aggressive the Russians would be in 1762 - 63 if EI is still around and I’d say that the chances are approximately equal in both directions. On one hand, EI kept making the bellicose noices but OTOH she appointed as the Russian commander a person about whom even a child few years old (her grandson) said that he “would produce neither peace nor war”. Adding to this a disastrous situation with the Russian finances (in 1864 CII was writing to Fritz than her treasury is so empty that even sending few thousands troops to the PLC for new royal election is problematic) and a lot of bad blood between the Russian and Austrian commanders over the issue of supplies and alleged Austrian lack of aggressiveness, I’d say that there is even a more than 50% possibility that the Russians would tend to minimize their involvement (after all, they got EP so why stick the neck too far?).

So Fritz was holding Saxony as a bargaining chip in the (almost) worst case scenario and most probably at least a part of Silesia. EP is an interesting question but as soon as EI is dead, Fritz is getting it back (CII stuck to the peace made by PIII and for a while Fritz was her closest ally).
 
But by the end of war (IIRC) Prussia was holding Saxony and by 1763 it retook Silesia. Now, we can speculate on how aggressive the Russians would be in 1762 - 63 if EI is still around and I’d say that the chances are approximately equal in both directions. On one hand, EI kept making the bellicose noices but OTOH she appointed as the Russian commander a person about whom even a child few years old (her grandson) said that he “would produce neither peace nor war”. Adding to this a disastrous situation with the Russian finances (in 1864 CII was writing to Fritz than her treasury is so empty that even sending few thousands troops to the PLC for new royal election is problematic) and a lot of bad blood between the Russian and Austrian commanders over the issue of supplies and alleged Austrian lack of aggressiveness, I’d say that there is even a more than 50% possibility that the Russians would tend to minimize their involvement (after all, they got EP so why stick the neck too far?).

So Fritz was holding Saxony as a bargaining chip in the (almost) worst case scenario and most probably at least a part of Silesia. EP is an interesting question but as soon as EI is dead, Fritz is getting it back (CII stuck to the peace made by PIII and for a while Fritz was her closest ally).

The difference between having the Russians as an active ally vs having the Russians as a uncommitted opponent still means a lot in terms of tying up Prussian troops to the East. It also is a big difference for the Austrians in having to commit troops to defend against potential Russian attacks. Without the Russians changing sides, I don't think Prussia takes Saxony or retakes Silesia.

Also, if the war ends and a couple years go past until Elizabeth dies, I can't see even Peter III giving back East Prussia.
 
The difference between having the Russians as an active ally vs having the Russians as a uncommitted opponent still means a lot in terms of tying up Prussian troops to the East. It also is a big difference for the Austrians in having to commit troops to defend against potential Russian attacks. Without the Russians changing sides, I don't think Prussia takes Saxony or retakes Silesia.

Also, if the war ends and a couple years go past until Elizabeth dies, I can't see even Peter III giving back East Prussia.

Fritz pushed Austrians out of most of Saxony after Torgau, while EI was still alive. Silesia is anybody’s guess but Saxony was a very good piece of a real estate.

Situation with Russia is so tricky that I would not risk any definite conclusions. On one hand, St-Petersburg was still in a bellicose mode but OTOH enthusiasm “on a ground” was seemingly wearing out and Russia had a well-developed culture of “otpiska”: sending to the boss reports assuring that the orders would be acted upon as soon as the technical problems are resolved. Even much later CII was reluctant to appoint Rumiantsev an army commander (or rather commander of one of the armies) during her first Ottoman War because he was known for an ability to write “otpiskas”. It took her to start writing personally challenging letters for him to take a bite and show what he is capable of. By the end of the 7YW, EI found herself in a much worse position because (a) she was not as good a psychologist as CII, (b) put in charge a person who had no military talents and wish to fight and (c) insisted upon activity when relations with an ally hit the bottom. And she could not change situation just by the click of her fingers: Russia simply did not have capable generals of a high rank to put in charge.


PIII, when making peace with Fritz promised him just a token force of 18,000 (Treaty of St.Petersburg) so the Austrians did not really get a new enemy.

Of course, we can make any speculations about what could happen if EI lives for an extra couple years but it seems that all participants had been running out of steam in 1762 and financial situation was bad for all of them so the war of annihilation is unlikely even with the Rusdians still hanging around.
 
Prussian collapse leads to the French conquest of Hannover, and the loss of British defenders, and other smaller gains in Germany. The worse British position in the final peace results in Spain not entering, removing the British capture of Havana. This negates the need for France to give up its territory in Louisiana. In the final peace France retains LA, and is able to keep sections of India in exchange for giving up Hannover and withdrawing from Germany. Without the massive overseas losses suffered OTL France laughs the Genoans our of the country when the still broke French are offered the troublesome island.

And if there is an American Revolution (possible, since ITTL France gets back India rather than New France) - France may not get involved.
 
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And if there is an American Revolution (possible, since ITTL France gets back India rather than New France) - France may not get involved.
Hmm, IMO if the ARW happened France would probably get involved. Getting the colonies away from Britain would remove a major thorn in France’s side going forward and render NA something to be ignored in a future war with Britain.

But of course, that’s assuming the ARW still happens.
 
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