WI Habsburgs let Bulgarians defeat Serbs in 1885?

raharris1973

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Assuming the Bulgarians completely defeated and conquered the Serbs, who the Bulgarians had beaten badly, what would the internal politics and foreign policy of this proto-"Yugoslavia" look like?

Would it have an expansionist agenda vis-a-vis the Ottomans and/or the Austrians? I suppose if it were one big happy slavic family they'd be glad to expand in any direction. But, if there were rivalries and suspicions between the Serbs and Bulgars internally, Serbs might see southward expansion as adding too much to Bulgar power, and the Bulgarians might see northwestern expansion adding too much Serb power (like Austro-Hungarian and American misgivings about expansions effect on the domestic balance in the 19th century).

Thoughts?

A second scenario, fairly similar - What if instead of insisting on an independent Albania in 1913, Austria-Hungary decided to accept Serbian and Greek occupation of Albania? Maybe the Germans are having a bout of distraction or restraint, or maybe the Central Powers insist that Serbian occupation of Albania is only OK as long as it's a personal union of Serbia-Albania under the Serb king? There again could this act as a break on Serb policies aimed at acquiring Habsburg territory?
 
In 1885 it'd just end-up being Greater Bulgaria with a 'pesky Serbian minority', as the Bulgarians would have no interest in creating a Pan-Slavic state and the Ottomans and Austrians, whom contained the rest of the regions South Slavs, would beat them down if they tried, very likely with British or French help.
 
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I don't think Bulgaria would annex all of Serbia- that doesn't seem to have been on the agenda. It would never be acceptable to the Great Powers. Bulgaria could acquire the Niš region, perhaps, which was only recently Serbian and might not be too rebellious.

This would drive a wedge between Bulgaria and the other Balkan states, making the First Balkan War unlikely to happen as OTL. Bulgaria might ally with Austria, while Serbian Revanchism would grow very strong.
 
How much of Albania? Just enough for the coast? Would Montenegro get the northern parts it conquered but had to give up? How would the Sanjak of Novibazar be in relation to other countries?
 
Uh. I don't think it's possible for Serbia to ever willingly give up on Vojvodina (at least the southern 2/3), because of the cultural significance of the Serbs there.

As for the thing with Albania in 1912/1913, should Serbia acquire its coast, it would likely be ready to give Bulgaria the eastern half (maybe even the whole) of Macedonia.

The tricky part here (Serbia-AH) is the question of Bosnia and Novi Pazar, and disregarding Macedonia, the Bulgaria-Serbia relation has no true obstacle.
 
Uh. I don't think it's possible for Serbia to ever willingly give up on Vojvodina (at least the southern 2/3), because of the cultural significance of the Serbs there.

Er, in this time-frame Vojvodina is still part of Austria-Hungary, and will be 'till 1918.
 
Sigh. I am well aware of the fact that Vojvodina is part of AH.
As far as I understood the original poster, one of his questions was if Serbia acquiring Albanian territory would stop them from trying to take some of Austria-hungary's, and I answered that whatever the circumstance, Serbs will wait for an opportunity to incorporate Vojvodina at the very least.
 
Sigh. I am well aware of the fact that Vojvodina is part of AH.
As far as I understood the original poster, one of his questions was if Serbia acquiring Albanian territory would stop them from trying to take some of Austria-hungary's, and I answered that whatever the circumstance, Serbs will wait for an opportunity to incorporate Vojvodina at the very least.
It depends on which portion, it had been a it volatile in the past. Apparently it wasn't even claimed in the east during the London Pact. Then again, they might have thought the Romanians wanted it.


http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Londonski_ugovor_hr.svg&page=1
 
In OTL ( Austria-Hungary ) A-H saved Serbia from Bulgarian ( BG ) invasion, but what if A-H and BG acted in synch?

... splitting Serbia and Montenegro between themselves. A-H utilizing the new South slavic territories to reform its empire, and they together to attack Turkey?
 
Sigh. I am well aware of the fact that Vojvodina is part of AH.
As far as I understood the original poster, one of his questions was if Serbia acquiring Albanian territory would stop them from trying to take some of Austria-hungary's, and I answered that whatever the circumstance, Serbs will wait for an opportunity to incorporate Vojvodina at the very least.

The OPs premise was Bulgaria conquering Serbia.
 
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It's unlikely that Bulgaria would actually conquer all of Serbia. Annexing the Niš region, on the other hand, would probably happen. After all, until 1878 it had been generally considered Bulgarian (there is a Serbian source from the 1870s which called Niš one of the main cities of Bulgaria), had been part of the Bulgarian church, even the dialect spoken there can be considered Bulgarian. Serbia under this scenario would probably be reduced to a minor Austrian satellite state. Probably no Balkan war (at least anything similar to OTL), as Bulgaria's neighbors distrust her even more.
The question the OP didn't answer, however is why does this happen? The Habsburgs have no interest in having their allies (at the time) be weakened or lose the route to Salonika they wanted to control.
 
Assuming the Bulgarians completely defeated and conquered the Serbs, who the Bulgarians had beaten badly, what would the internal politics and foreign policy of this proto-"Yugoslavia" look like?
As others have said, I don't think conquest is on the cards. The Nis area is about the limit. Maybe some minor territorial changes along mountain tops to make sure that Bulgarian troops on the border have a better strategic position than the Serbs facing them in any future conflict.

The obvious change is that Alexander II keeps his throne. I've been considering a TL with him and his descendants remaining in charge of a somewhat more successful Bulgaria for a while, but haven't screwed up the courage to start in earnest yet. :(


A second scenario, fairly similar - What if instead of insisting on an independent Albania in 1913, Austria-Hungary decided to accept Serbian and Greek occupation of Albania? Maybe the Germans are having a bout of distraction or restraint, or maybe the Central Powers insist that Serbian occupation of Albania is only OK as long as it's a personal union of Serbia-Albania under the Serb king? There again could this act as a break on Serb policies aimed at acquiring Habsburg territory?
This could keep the Balkan League together. The reason (at least officially) that Greece and Serbia refused to evacuate bits of Macedonia that they'd agreed would go to Sofia was because they'd been screwed out of territory by the creation of Albania*. If this isn't the case, and the Bulgarianss don't start the Second Balkan War, what happens next? Do they keep trying to seize Constantinople? Do the Romanians attack? If either of these things happen, do their allies support them? Without the recapture of Edirne, will Kemal rise to prominence in the Ottoman Empire? These differences could lead to a very different 1914. An A-H that was slighted by the non-creation of Albania may be more inclined towards brinkmanship, providing FF still takes a bullet.**

*As well as assistance at Edirne from Serb artillery...
** TTL The Italians will also be spitting feathers at being having their interests in Albania ignored.

The question the OP didn't answer, however is why does this happen? The Habsburgs have no interest in having their allies (at the time) be weakened or lose the route to Salonika they wanted to control.
The path to change this war doesn't start in Vienna. It comes from St. Petersburg. The Russians were pissed off at the unification of Bulgaria proper and Rumelia. They withdrew all their 'advisory' officers from Bulgaria. This left the Bulgarian Army with nobody more senior than a captain, if my memory is correct. Such a public withdrawal of favour from their Slavic benefactor and protector left the door open for Serbian attacks, and when that plan went arse over tit, Austrian pressure. Had St. Petersburg backed Bulgaria, there probably would have been no war, or the Bulgarians would have won with some minor concessions. The trouble is, to keep Russia happy, Bulgaria cannot be seen as a threat to the eventual Russian control of the straits. The unification was seen as a threat OTL. Change this, and you can easily change the war.
 
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