WI: Habsburg Portugal w/o Philippine Union

This may be a bit wankish, but hear me out.

If D. Carlos were to marry (either Élisabeth de Valois, if Mary Tudor lives a smidge longer; or Anna of Austria) and have kids, would said kids be able to inherit Portugal when the Cardinal King dies? And if they do, would Felipe II EXCLUDE his (Portuguese) grandkids from his first marriagewith regards to the Spanish succession in favour of a son from a later marriage (i.e. D. Carlos still dies before Felipe II, but leaves underage son(s))? I ask because an exclusion due to underage kids happened with the de la Cerda infantes, and Fernando el Catolico attempted to play the foreign monarch card with Karl V. Plus Felipe II's dislike for his eldest son and I figure it could have legs, no?
 
This may be a bit wankish, but hear me out.

If D. Carlos were to marry (either Élisabeth de Valois, if Mary Tudor lives a smidge longer; or Anna of Austria) and have kids, would said kids be able to inherit Portugal when the Cardinal King dies? And if they do, would Felipe II EXCLUDE his (Portuguese) grandkids from his first marriage with regards to the Spanish succession in favour of a son from a later marriage (i.e. D. Carlos still dies before Felipe II, but leaves underage son(s))? I ask because an exclusion due to underage kids happened with the de la Cerda infantes, and Fernando el Catolico attempted to play the foreign monarch card with Karl V. Plus Felipe II's dislike for his eldest son and I figure it could have legs, no?
Carlos or his kid will inherit Portugal before the Cardinal King as they were the indisputable next in line after King Sebastian (as they were descendent of Jõao III and not only Manuel I) and Felipe II would not be able to exclude them from the succession in Spain but at the same time would not have any reason for doing that... A grandson would unite Spain and Portugal under his rule and if Don Carlos dying left only daughter(s) well the princess of Asturias and Queen of Portugal will be married to her half-uncle (unless Philip decided to marry her to one of the Austrian relatives). A second son of Philip can always inhereit the Netherlands or Milan after all. Keeping Mary Tudor alive some months longer than OTL is the easier way for having descendants of Don Carlos, in my opinion (as he here can still die at the OTL date)
 
Carlos or his kid will inherit Portugal before the Cardinal King as they were the indisputable next in line after King Sebastian (as they were descendent of Jõao III and not only Manuel I) and Felipe II would not be able to exclude them from the succession in Spain but at the same time would not have any reason for doing that... A grandson would unite Spain and Portugal under his rule and if Don Carlos dying left only daughter(s) well the princess of Asturias and Queen of Portugal will be married to her half-uncle (unless Philip decided to marry her to one of the Austrian relatives). A second son of Philip can always inhereit the Netherlands or Milan after all. Keeping Mary Tudor alive some months longer than OTL is the easier way for having descendants of Don Carlos, in my opinion (as he here can still die at the OTL date)

I just figured that the Portuguese would probably NOT want a union with Spain (IIRC Maria Manuela's marriage contract specifically barred her kids from the Portuguese throne), or that the Spanish would rather not want to be ruled from Lisbon any more than what the Portuguese wanted to be ruled from Madrid OTL.
 
I just figured that the Portuguese would probably NOT want a union with Spain (IIRC Maria Manuela's marriage contract specifically barred her kids from the Portuguese throne), or that the Spanish would rather not want to be ruled from Lisbon any more than what the Portuguese wanted to be ruled from Madrid OTL.
You are sure about that? I never heard anything about that clause... plus that would not be the first time who an union between Spain and Portugal would be close... In any case Philip will surely try to put his descendants by Maria Manuela on the Portugal throne after Sebastian’s death and likely will be able to do it (as the Pope will support him)
 
You are sure about that? I never heard anything about that clause...

No, I'm not entirely, but I know I read it somewhere. Maybe @Gonzaga @Karolus Rex @Viriato @Lusitania could help. I think it was mentioned in a TL or a TL idea where Maria Manuela has a son and then dies in childbed with a daughter. Said daughter marries the duque de Guimaraes.

Either way, AIUI Felipe sort of weighted the scales after Sebastião's death by getting a lot of nobles in favour of Spain by paying their ransoms in Morocco, not to mention, the Portuguese economy is in a slump in 1580 (something which may or may not be affected by a POD in 1558 - or in 1555 if we have Sebastião be stillborn).
 
Would love to help, but currently without a laptop, so can't research ;-; - topic is interesting so I will see what I can find on that, after I can finally stop reading about egyptian history for my last exam
 
Maria Manuela was, IOTL, sworn heiress to the throne of Portugal in the absence of surviving brothers (the Iberian kingdoms were much more female-friendly in terms of inheritance). Let's butterfly that John III of Portugal (who was still alive at the time of his grandchildren's births) stipulated in the marriage contract of his daughter that the crowns of Portugal and Castile-Aragon should never reunite, and Maria Manuela should nominate one of her children to the throne of Portugal, renouncing to their rights to the Spanish throne. Let's suppose that she gives birth to another daughter: let's name her Catherine Isabella of Spain, born around 1546. This would surely mess a little bit with the succession again, but there's a very bright light in the end of the tunnel.

This is the text that I was thinking of. It's not OTL, but if the POD is D. Sebastião being stillborn (i.e. 1554), I could see João III either stipulating that the Portuguese crown was to be inherited by his brothers: Luiz (d.1555), Henrique (d.1580) and then youngest's, Duarte (d.1540)'s posthumous son, the duque de Guimarães. Or, João III demands that Carlos be sent to Portugal to be raised as Portuguese heir etc. Felipe II either agrees or holds out (he won't have to for long, since João died in 1557, here he may go sooner with the added stress).

Either way, I could see a reason being found to disinherit Carlos (and his descendants) from the Spanish line, particularly if Felipe has (less inbred/detested) son by a third wife (who?).
 
This is the text that I was thinking of. It's not OTL, but if the POD is D. Sebastião being stillborn (i.e. 1554), I could see João III either stipulating that the Portuguese crown was to be inherited by his brothers: Luiz (d.1555), Henrique (d.1580) and then youngest's, Duarte (d.1540)'s posthumous son, the duque de Guimarães. Or, João III demands that Carlos be sent to Portugal to be raised as Portuguese heir etc. Felipe II either agrees or holds out (he won't have to for long, since João died in 1557, here he may go sooner with the added stress).

Either way, I could see a reason being found to disinherit Carlos (and his descendants) from the Spanish line, particularly if Felipe has (less inbred/detested) son by a third wife (who?).

No, Kellan doing anything different from Maria Manuela’s descendants as heir of Portugal and Spain will not work: Felipe wanted the union of Portugal with Castile and Aragon and I can not see why João (who had Spanish mother, wife and daughter-in-law) would decide to exclude from the succession his only remaining descendants in favour of his sibling, with the probable consequence of a civil war in Portugal...
For the same reason I can not see Philip disinhereiting Carlos’s children (specially if their mother is Isabella of France) as he had always respected the place of his eldest son in the succession (plus again why risk a civil war? The younger son will have the Netherlands and a third maybe Milan)
 
Well, then this sounds like a wet fart then. I was hoping for a way that we could get a Habsburg Portugal but no PU with Spain.

Oh, well, follow up question then. Since this PU would be more "organic" than OTL's (where Felipe was one of several possible heirs, while D. Carlos would be the senior most - no ifs, buts or coconuts) would it stand a better chance of surviving? Or would it tear itself asunder like the Philippine Union did?
 
Well, then this sounds like a wet fart then. I was hoping for a way that we could get a Habsburg Portugal but no PU with Spain.

Oh, well, follow up question then. Since this PU would be more "organic" than OTL's (where Felipe was one of several possible heirs, while D. Carlos would be the senior most - no ifs, buts or coconuts) would it stand a better chance of surviving? Or would it tear itself asunder like the Philippine Union did?
A better pod would be don carlos having a daughter.
 
A better pod would be don carlos having a daughter.
Don Carlos’ daughter will still be the heiress of Spain before her father’s younger half-brother...

Well, then this sounds like a wet fart then. I was hoping for a way that we could get a Habsburg Portugal but no PU with Spain.

Oh, well, follow up question then. Since this PU would be more "organic" than OTL's (where Felipe was one of several possible heirs, while D. Carlos would be the senior most - no ifs, buts or coconuts) would it stand a better chance of surviving? Or would it tear itself asunder like the Philippine Union did?
Likely yes, the union will be more stable, at least while the line of Don Carlos is on the throne as they would be the strongest claimants and succession in Spain and Portugal follow the same rules plus the union between Aragon and Castile under the Habsburg was loose enough to consent to integrate Portugal under the same conditions in the Kingdom of Spain...
 
Maybe this:
-Don Carlos is born as girl.
-Felipe remarry, but has only daughters, his oldest daughter Isabella* (female Don Carlos) is his heiress, Felipe married her to Austrian Habsburg cousin, who moves to Spain to live with Infanta. They have some kids toghether, but then miracle happens, wife of Don Felipe (say Elisabeth of France, who lives longer) gave birth to a son in her late 30s early 40s (so around 1580-85) who is now heir to Spain, it happens after death of Sebastião, so by that time daughter and son-in-law of Don Felipe could inherit Portuguese throne already.
 
Maybe this:
-Don Carlos is born as girl.
-Felipe remarry, but has only daughters, his oldest daughter Isabella* (female Don Carlos) is his heiress, Felipe married her to Austrian Habsburg cousin, who moves to Spain to live with Infanta. They have some kids toghether, but then miracle happens, wife of Don Felipe (say Elisabeth of France, who lives longer) gave birth to a son in her late 30s early 40s (so around 1580-85) who is now heir to Spain, it happens after death of Sebastião, so by that time daughter and son-in-law of Don Felipe could inherit Portuguese throne already.
Can work... but at that point why not go directly for the other route? Carlos die early while Sebastian is born as girl and marry one of the Austrian princes (offered by Philip who has no son and so propose instead one of his younger nephews or cousins)?
 
So what would you say about this @Kellan Sullivan @isabella

Stillbirths not included:

Philip II (1527-1598) King of Spain, m. a) 1543 Maria Manuela of Portugal (1527-1552) b) 1554 Mary Tudor, Queen of England (1516-1558) c) 1559 Elisabeth of France (1545-1595)
1a) Charles (1545-1568)
2a) Philip (1548-1550)
3a) Isabella (born 1552) m. around 1575 Archduke Ernest of Austria (born 1553). Either in 1578 or 1580 they're made Queen and King of Portugal. Isabella is heiress of Spanish throne from 1568 to 1582.
4c) Maria Clara Eugenia (1566-1633) would she became Duchess of Savoy? Or is still to close to the throne to be married to non-Habsburg?
5c) Catherine Michelle (1567-1597 or later) either Duchess of Savoy or... no idea yet.
6c) Joanna (1570-1575)
7c) Claudia (1573-1615) Due to physicall deformations never married and became a nun
8c) Joanna (1575-1585)
9c) Ferdinand VI (1582-1625) King of Spain 1598-1625
 
So what would you say about this @Kellan Sullivan @isabella

Stillbirths not included:

Philip II (1527-1598) King of Spain, m. a) 1543 Maria Manuela of Portugal (1527-1552) b) 1554 Mary Tudor, Queen of England (1516-1558) c) 1559 Elisabeth of France (1545-1595)
1a) Charles (1545-1568)
2a) Philip (1548-1550)
3a) Isabella (born 1552) m. around 1575 Archduke Ernest of Austria (born 1553). Either in 1578 or 1580 they're made Queen and King of Portugal. Isabella is heiress of Spanish throne from 1568 to 1582.
4c) Maria Clara Eugenia (1566-1633) would she became Duchess of Savoy? Or is still to close to the throne to be married to non-Habsburg?
5c) Catherine Michelle (1567-1597 or later) either Duchess of Savoy or... no idea yet.
6c) Joanna (1570-1575)
7c) Claudia (1573-1615) Due to physicall deformations never married and became a nun
8c) Joanna (1575-1585)
9c) Ferdinand VI (1582-1625) King of Spain 1598-1625
Maria Clara Eugenia - Henry IV of France, Catherine Michelle - Savoy.
 
Modified version: Elisabeth dies like IOTL, Philip marries for the fourth time to Anna of Austria in 1570, but their marriage is childless for the long time, their only child, son Ferdinand, is bo in 1581 (it happen to some couples, that even if both partners are not sterile, they have problems with having kids, so it may be the case *here*, especially considering consanguinity).

Philip II (1527-1598) King of Spain, m. a) 1543 Maria Manuela of Portugal (1527-1552) b) 1554 Mary Tudor, Queen of England (1516-1558) c) 1559 Elisabeth of France (1545-1568) d) Anna of Austria (1549-1600)
1a) Charles (1545-1568)
2a) Philip (1548-1550)
3a) Isabella (born 1552) m. around 1575 Archduke Ernest of Austria (born 1553). Either in 1578 or 1580 they're made Queen and King of Portugal. Isabella is heiress of Spanish throne from 1568 to 1582.
4c) Maria Clara Eugenia (1566-1633) would she became Duchess of Savoy? Or is still to close to the throne to be married to non-Habsburg?
5c) Catherine Michelle (1567-1597 or later) either Duchess of Savoy or... no idea yet.
6d) Ferdinand (1581-1625) King of Spain 1598-1625
 
@Jan Olbracht: Were it not for the age, I'd say that Ernst might be seen as too close to the imperial throne (i.e. we could just as easily end up with a Portugal-Empire union as a Spain-Empire REunion). I know he's 5 years younger than her, but perhaps Archduke Matthias instead?
 
@Jan Olbracht: Were it not for the age, I'd say that Ernst might be seen as too close to the imperial throne (i.e. we could just as easily end up with a Portugal-Empire union as a Spain-Empire REunion). I know he's 5 years younger than her, but perhaps Archduke Matthias instead?
Perhaps we need Maximilian II's oldest son (Ferdinand) to survive?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Why not Archduke Charles II? He's older than her but he was older than is OTL (who was his niece). And IIRC Philip had been putting him forward for marriage to Mary Stuart. So when that fails he'd be single just around the time Philip is looking to marry off his daughter.
 
Top