WI Habsburg England

Before figuring out the long term consequences, don't we need to sort out the short term consequences of Mary living into the 1560s? Does Cateau-Cambrésis still go through as in OTL? Presumably Philip II is forced to be a much more peripatetic monarch, like his father, and not simply return to Spain in 1559 and stay there the rest of his life as in OTL. What effect does a Catholic, Spanish England have on Scotland? Presumably Mary won't support a protestant revolt against the regent, as Elizabeth did. Does a greater presence for Philip in the Low Countries do anything to prevent the Dutch Revolt? Does Henri II still get a lance in his eye? How does that effect the French Wars of Religion?
 
If Mary lives longer, the war is less likely to end with the surrender of Calais to the French, which means the English keep a toehold on the continent. If Henry II survives the tournament (not hard to butterfly, considering it was a freak accident already), he reigns for maybe ten more years (the Valois don't seem terribly long lived), and Francis II never takes the throne. The persecution of calvinists continues, and Charles IX takes the throne at the age of 17.
 
I think in this timeline, it's possible to butterfly away Don Carlos's premature death; while it's uncertain how much of his erratic behavior was the result of inbreeding and how much came from his head injury and subsequent operation, it's at least in the scope of possibility that he'd be able to sire a child with Elisabeth of Valois, while Philip has a child with Mary. If a mentally stable Don Carlos is put in charge of the Netherlands, that might also butterfly out Don John's death from camp fever, which would preserve a useful asset for the Spanish Crown.

If the Habsburgs manage to win the French Wars of Religion, you're looking at three Habsburg blocs, with the senior Spanish branch ruling France, Italy, Spain, and the New World, the English branch ruling England, Ireland, and the Netherlands, and the Austrian branch, which would be better able to consolidate control over the Holy Roman Empire without French opposition.

[also shameless bump]
 
I think in this timeline, it's possible to butterfly away Don Carlos's premature death; while it's uncertain how much of his erratic behavior was the result of inbreeding and how much came from his head injury and subsequent operation, it's at least in the scope of possibility that he'd be able to sire a child with Elisabeth of Valois, while Philip has a child with Mary. If a mentally stable Don Carlos is put in charge of the Netherlands, that might also butterfly out Don John's death from camp fever, which would preserve a useful asset for the Spanish Crown.

If the Habsburgs manage to win the French Wars of Religion, you're looking at three Habsburg blocs, with the senior Spanish branch ruling France, Italy, Spain, and the New World, the English branch ruling England, Ireland, and the Netherlands, and the Austrian branch, which would be better able to consolidate control over the Holy Roman Empire without French opposition.

[also shameless bump]
Not sure how the Habsburgs can claim the French throne.France runs on full agnatic-primogeniture,so you can't claim the throne on the basis of female descent.If it worked,the English line would have taken the French throne.
 
The Parlement de Paris, controlled by the Catholic League, declared Infante Isabella (granddaughter of Henry II) the rightful sovereign of France, but Henry of Navarre managed to win the war. It is perhaps plausible that, free of rebellion in the Netherlands and with England's cooperation, the Catholic League could have decisively defeated Henry, at which point Isabella would be the actual as well as de jure Queen of France. So then it would be four branches of the Habsburg dynasty, now that I think of it, unless Isabella gets subsumed into one of the other branches.
 
Interesting to think about where the Habsburgs go if they actually do succeed in bringing all of Western Europe under their hegemony; the Austrians can work to stamp out protestant princes within the empire and consolidate control, or possible campaign down the Danube to retake Buda from the Ottomans, perhaps with the Spanish (/French/Italian) branch nabbing Ottoman possessions in west North Africa.
 
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