Before figuring out the long term consequences, don't we need to sort out the short term consequences of Mary living into the 1560s? Does Cateau-Cambrésis still go through as in OTL? Presumably Philip II is forced to be a much more peripatetic monarch, like his father, and not simply return to Spain in 1559 and stay there the rest of his life as in OTL. What effect does a Catholic, Spanish England have on Scotland? Presumably Mary won't support a protestant revolt against the regent, as Elizabeth did. Does a greater presence for Philip in the Low Countries do anything to prevent the Dutch Revolt? Does Henri II still get a lance in his eye? How does that effect the French Wars of Religion?