WI: Habsburg Empire Collapses in 1848

[LordKalvan]

Can the Springtime of the Peoples put an end to the Habsburg empire in 1848?

After the resignation of Metternich on 13 March 1848 there were 4 governments in as many months. The emperor left Wien (where the revolt was successful) and repaired to Innsbruck. Insurrections occurred in Italy, Bohemia and Hungary (and Galicia too, although on a much smaller scale). Then by June-July the wind changed: the insurgents were not united in their goals and the Austrians were able to patch up what looked like a lost cause.

I would prefer a very late POD (say 1847 or even 1848 - in any case after 1830): there are plenty of possibilities ranging from a more decisive Frankfurt Parliament to a cooperation of some kind between German and Slav nationalists in Bohemia or Croatia going its own way or the insurrections in Italy leading to a more cohesive and decisionist handling of the military campaign there. Maybe the problem was that the leaders of the insurrection movements throughout the empire were too "nice" and would not accept that to make an omelette one needs to break a number of eggs.

An intriguing possibility would be Metternich not resigning: this would probably butterfly away the early success of the insurrection (which gave everyone the idea that the job was done, and it was time to eat the cake) and ultimately would result in a stronger insurrection movement.

Another possibility might be the emperor delaying the escape from Wien, and being held by the insurgents in the imperial palace.

Don't feel constrained by the possible scenarios I sketched anyway: the goal is to topple the Habsburgs and everything goes.

 

[Vanity 6]

The results of such a thing would be quite dark I think. It would work out well for Italy perhaps with an earlier Sardinian-led unification (but with that pesky French garrison in Rome).

With all central power gone you have the war of all against all especially in Hungary where the new Republic can not hold it together.

Ultimately it's a partition between Prussian led Germany and Russia. Germany absorbs Austria and Bohemia under new German princes. Russia annexes Galicia, Bukovina and Transylvania. Germany sets up puppet states in Slovakia, Hungary, Voivodina and Croatia.

Germany and Russia would agree on an east/west division of the Balkans and could very well be allied in a war against the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Derek Pullem]

The results of such a thing would be quite dark I think. It would work out well for Italy perhaps with an earlier Sardinian-led unification (but with that pesky French garrison in Rome).

With all central power gone you have the war of all against all especially in Hungary where the new Republic can not hold it together.

Ultimately it's a partition between Prussian led Germany and Russia. Germany absorbs Austria and Bohemia under new German princes. Russia annexes Galicia, Bukovina and Transylvania. Germany sets up puppet states in Slovakia, Hungary, Voivodina and Croatia.

Germany and Russia would agree on an east/west division of the Balkans and could very well be allied in a war against the Ottoman Empire.

Your description would be fine if there was a centralised authority in "Germany" in 1848. Assuming an OTL outcome in Germany, the collapse of Austria-Hungary would leave a patchwork of weak states across Europe which would be at risk from a resurgent France under Napoleon as well as Russia (and to a lesser extent from Prussia)

If Russia decides to commit the troops it did to put down Hungary there is no reason why it could not do so again. The prospect of a Russo-Slav dominated Eastern Europe may well force France / Napoleon III's intervention and may even have British support (mostly logistical)

You may well end up with a situation not dissimilar to 1920 with a patchwork of weak Central and Eastern European states with guarantees against Russia from France and each other.

Prussia may well come to include all of Germany as we know it but extending its influence to Austria, Hungary amd Bohemia would bring it into conflict with all the major powers (for different reasons)

 

[LordKalvan]

It is a possibility, although one with very little likelihood to happen.

I'm quite skeptic about a Prussian-dominated uber Grossdeutschland with a POD centered on 1848 (leave aside establishing puppet states in central Europe).

Whatever happens in Germany proper (a loose confederation of Princes without Prussia?) I'd like a federal republic of Austria and Bohemia and a republican Hungary. In a better world Hungary would let Croatia go but in the real world it is much more difficult (and a possible solution might be some Habsburg prince - Maximilian? - taking the Hungarian crown under regency.

I'm pretty sure the unification of Italy is a bridge too far in 1848: the best outcome might be some kind of confederation, with a leavening of republics in it (Venetia and Emilia-Romagna for example). It depends how Sardinia, the Pope and Two Sicilies play their respective hands, though (and obviously how the republicans play their own).

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

1848/49 was a mess in the Habsburg Monarchy - as there was no centralized revolution and some movements never had common goals (hungarians vs Austrians Slovaks vs Hunfgarians Croats vs Hungarians etc...) and even the timeline of the insurrections do not match and allow the imperial troops to defeat several insurrections en detail.

But one thing might change history a bit.

Assume the Russian Czar does NOT support the Austrians (maybe he frars a revolution also in russia and kees his troops at home.

This this prolongs the battle between Austria and Hungary - assume that in early 1850 Vienna realizes that it can't set back the clock and agree to Hungarian independence.

This independence will include not all that is part of the "Hungarian" part

I assume the southern Boreder will run north of the comitats of Baranya, Bacs and Torontal, in the West at least teh German/Croat/Lovene inhabitet parts will remain with Austria while the Question of the Slovak inhabited territory is left open to discussion.

The Romanian part will be left to Hungrry despite large German inhabited areas (Hermanstadt etc).

The question frrom there will be how does the remaining Austrian empire develop. I assume to keep the remaining nations in the monarchy Austria might federalize (as mayn of the 1848 revolutionaries demanded - they not all and maybe not even the majority) did NOT want to dismantle Austria totally)

Hungary might become an ally of Russia while (if there is such a war) ustria might have a bit of a revenge on Russia during the Crimean War (likely Austria joins the coalition against Russia and demands (part) of Kongresspolen. Assuming this happens a second revolution (maybe during a war with Sardinia-Piemont - late 50s?) creates an independent Poland (Kongresspolen + Galicia/Bukovina) - if that war (likely) goes against Austria. Assuem Austria not only loses Lombardia, but also Venetia (but not Trieste) to Sardinia That leaves a "rump Austria" (Bohemia/Moravia/Austria proper + Croatia including Trieste Dalmatia) in the early 60s when Bismarck/prussia automatically dominates the German speaking countries. we might see the German Federation developing early into a Prussian dominated German Reich - with the Austrians simply not powerful enough to resist. I think Austria will stay part of this Germany with the Austrian Emperor becoming simply the King of Czechs, Austrians and Croatians - roughly with the same status as the BAvarian king withing the German Empirem of OTL.

There will be no alliance of Prussia with Italy (1866 of OTL), but definitely a Franco-German war (as otls 1870/71) with Italy on frnaces sidem, but the Germans will prevail...

 

[LordKalvan]

1848/49 was a mess in the Habsburg Monarchy - as there was no centralized revolution and some movements never had common goals (hungarians vs Austrians Slovaks vs Hunfgarians Croats vs Hungarians etc...) and even the timeline of the insurrections do not match and allow the imperial troops to defeat several insurrections en detail.

But one thing might change history a bit.

Assume the Russian Czar does NOT support the Austrians (maybe he frars a revolution also in russia and kees his troops at home.

This this prolongs the battle between Austria and Hungary - assume that in early 1850 Vienna realizes that it can't set back the clock and agree to Hungarian independence.

This independence will include not all that is part of the "Hungarian" part

I assume the southern Boreder will run north of the comitats of Baranya, Bacs and Torontal, in the West at least teh German/Croat/Lovene inhabitet parts will remain with Austria while the Question of the Slovak inhabited territory is left open to discussion.

The Romanian part will be left to Hungrry despite large German inhabited areas (Hermanstadt etc).

The question frrom there will be how does the remaining Austrian empire develop. I assume to keep the remaining nations in the monarchy Austria might federalize (as mayn of the 1848 revolutionaries demanded - they not all and maybe not even the majority) did NOT want to dismantle Austria totally)

Hungary might become an ally of Russia while (if there is such a war) ustria might have a bit of a revenge on Russia during the Crimean War (likely Austria joins the coalition against Russia and demands (part) of Kongresspolen. Assuming this happens a second revolution (maybe during a war with Sardinia-Piemont - late 50s?) creates an independent Poland (Kongresspolen + Galicia/Bukovina) - if that war (likely) goes against Austria. Assuem Austria not only loses Lombardia, but also Venetia (but not Trieste) to Sardinia That leaves a "rump Austria" (Bohemia/Moravia/Austria proper + Croatia including Trieste Dalmatia) in the early 60s when Bismarck/prussia automatically dominates the German speaking countries. we might see the German Federation developing early into a Prussian dominated German Reich - with the Austrians simply not powerful enough to resist. I think Austria will stay part of this Germany with the Austrian Emperor becoming simply the King of Czechs, Austrians and Croatians - roughly with the same status as the BAvarian king withing the German Empirem of OTL.

There will be no alliance of Prussia with Italy (1866 of OTL), but definitely a Franco-German war (as otls 1870/71) with Italy on frnaces sidem, but the Germans will prevail...

Nice try, but it does not fit within the parameters of the OP. There are also a number of issues (letting Hungary go, not resisting Prussian dominance in the Germanies, the emperor accepting a demotion) which really cannot fly.
Try again.

 

[Marko]

The only way A-H can colapse is if Hungarian leadership is more sane and realistic. Antagonizing evey Slav in "their" territories did them no good, but for that an earlier PoD than given would have to exist.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Can the Springtime of the Peoples put an end to the Habsburg empire in 1848?

After the resignation of Metternich on 13 March 1848 there were 4 governments in as many months. The emperor left Wien (where the revolt was successful) and repaired to Innsbruck. Insurrections occurred in Italy, Bohemia and Hungary (and Galicia too, although on a much smaller scale). Then by June-July the wind changed: the insurgents were not united in their goals and the Austrians were able to patch up what looked like a lost cause.

I would prefer a very late POD (say 1847 or even 1848 - in any case after 1830): there are plenty of possibilities ranging from a more decisive Frankfurt Parliament to a cooperation of some kind between German and Slav nationalists in Bohemia or Croatia going its own way or the insurrections in Italy leading to a more cohesive and decisionist handling of the military campaign there. Maybe the problem was that the leaders of the insurrection movements throughout the empire were too "nice" and would not accept that to make an omelette one needs to break a number of eggs.

An intriguing possibility would be Metternich not resigning: this would probably butterfly away the early success of the insurrection (which gave everyone the idea that the job was done, and it was time to eat the cake) and ultimately would result in a stronger insurrection movement.

Another possibility might be the emperor delaying the escape from Wien, and being held by the insurgents in the imperial palace.

Don't feel constrained by the possible scenarios I sketched anyway: the goal is to topple the Habsburgs and everything goes.

Honestly its highly unlikely for any of the eastern revolution's in 1848 to succeed, let alone the one in the Austrian Empire. Yes the first few months wee chaotic and full of disasters but unlike the various revolutionaries the Habsburgs were still highly organized and most importantly kept the loyalty of most of their armies. That the revolutions were done by various nationalities really worked against them, as many of the revolutionaries fought each other along with the Habsburgs, allowing the Austrians to divide and conquer. Really the only place that the Habsburgs were in serious danger was in Hungary, which ultimately led to Russian intervention. And if Russia didn't get involved I have the feeling that Prussia would, as long as they can extract concessions from Vienna. After all the other German states many love to see a weakened Austria, but not a revolutionary one. A successful revolution in Austria would encourage more in Germany and Russia. Not a good thing.

 

[Perkeo]

Maybe we even see a German unification in 1848:

Once the Hohenzollern turned down the title of Emperor, maybe a Habsburg - having nothing to loose - agree to do the job.

The problem is how to win the inevitable civil war. The revolution will do better with the remenants of the Austrian army fighting for rather than against it, but I doubt it'll be enough. Secession of Prussia as a compromise?

 

[Perkeo]

Honestly its highly unlikely for any of the eastern revolution's in 1848 to succeed, let alone the one in the Austrian Empire. Yes the first few months wee chaotic and full of disasters but unlike the various revolutionaries the Habsburgs were still highly organized and most importantly kept the loyalty of most of their armies. That the revolutions were done by various nationalities really worked against them, as many of the revolutionaries fought each other along with the Habsburgs, allowing the Austrians to divide and conquer. Really the only place that the Habsburgs were in serious danger was in Hungary, which ultimately led to Russian intervention. And if Russia didn't get involved I have the feeling that Prussia would, as long as they can extract concessions from Vienna. After all the other German states many love to see a weakened Austria, but not a revolutionary one. A successful revolution in Austria would encourage more in Germany and Russia. Not a good thing.

That depends on exactly how revolutionary Austria becomes. When they manage to establish a semi-democratic constitutional monarchy in south Germany, it may be seen as a reasonable compromise by many fractions.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

A few things to note:

- If Hungarians win the Battle of Schwechat, they have open way to Vienna, where they can join up with the revolutionaries already in control. This is very early (Autumn of 1848), maybe too quick for the Russians to react, so they might wait what comes of it

- At this point Hungarians did not want a republic and total separation. That came later, during the Spring of 1849, after the successful Spring Campaign.

- The fall of Vienna might spark more widespread revolution in Galizia and Bohemia, forcing the Habsburgs to the bargaining table

- In any case, Hungary considers Translyvania an integral and ancient part of the Lands of the Holy Crown, they will not let it go easily, especially not to Romania.

- There is no common Slovak national identity at this point, it was formalized later in the 19th century (there wasn't even a uniform Slovak language yet). If the Hungarians don't act retarded as they did IOTL and not antagonize every minority, there may be a lot more stability. This may be possible if the war does not drag well into 1849.

- The issue of the minorities in Hungary proper is a delicate one. There were tensions under the surface before, and it was the war that lit the fuse. The Habsburgs actively roused the minorities to weaken the Hungarians, who enjoyed a series of military successes against the imperials. The heavy-handed Hungarian response further antagonized the minorities. If Vienna falls early in the war, this may not happen and tensions remain relatively calm.

- The Gendarme of Europe would probably intervene, but with Vienna taken, the Habsburgs may agree to bargain before the Czar acts.

- I believe, although I'm no expert on this, that Panslavism has not yet emerged, so the Russians will not be acting on that particular idea.

All in all, with a POD at Schwechat, and a somewhat more sane and toned down Hungarian government. Remember: the Habsburgs were only dethroned after they declared the Constitution of Olmütz. In short: the imperial army won a victory at Kápolna, which made Franz Jozef think that the war was won and the Constitution was created which basically cut Hungary apart, putting integral part of the Kingdom under direct Imperial administration. As an answer the Hungarian army launched the spring campaign, which they won and declared the Habsburgs dethroned and Hungary a republic. Battle of Kápolna was in February 1849. If Vienna is taken in late 1848, this may all not come to pass and the Habsburgs may agree to a federation. On what grounds, well that's a different issue.