This is a double what if, but the reason for this is to make the main question work, GW Bush has to pick Tom Ridge as his running mate in 2000 instead of Cheney.
With Ridge's help, Bush carries Pennsylvania. However, he does not carry Florida. Disappointment among evangelical voters erodes Bush's razor thin IOTL margin.
Everything else remains the same, Bush and Gore carry the same states they carried IOTL and Gore winds up with a somewhat narrower national popular vote lead.
Then what happens?