WI: Guthrum beat Alfred The Great at the Battle of Edington?

After many scrapped AH scenarios made, this one I want to have other peoples' opinions on it. What would happen if Guthrum beat Alfred The Great at the Battle of Edington?
 
Well, rather than a Danelaw scenario which set the stage for unified kingdoms on each side leading to a single England, you have had mini Conquests (or Cnut rule) instead for the Heptarchy.
 

jocay

Banned
Wessex's ascendancy is cut short. The Kingdom of England as we know it never forms. However the area remains politically divided between the different Norse warlords. You'll likely have a greater influx of Norse immigration to the conquered Anglo-Saxon kingdoms; what becomes of England either becomes Nordicized or the Nordic conquerors gradually assimilate and the English become much culturally similar to Scandinavia. Cornwall and the Welsh receive a brief respite from Anglo-Saxon incursions.
 
After many scrapped AH scenarios made, this one I want to have other peoples' opinions on it. What would happen if Guthrum beat Alfred The Great at the Battle of Edington?
It depends a lot of the result of the battle. Is Alfred killed or merely defeated?

In the latter case : Wessex was still a pretty much wealthy (if not wealthiest) part of England and even raided and plundered, would remain so. I doubt Gunthram would have the possibility to really undergo the conquest of Wessex as at this time, Anglo-Danes really began to slow down their advance. I'm not even sure about a whole conquest of Mercia ITTL, while taking more of it seems quite possible. In fact, I'd suspect Gunthram playing the balance between a weakened and tributary Alfred and possible rivals in order to establish his own regional hegemony.
While Wessex is definitely weaened (probably ending as a tributary and relatively dominated ensemble as it was in the 860's), I'd think most of its powerbase would remain there, and giving the relatively unstable political rule at the top of Danelaw would give some opportunities. Of course, we're talking of a slow recovery at best and nothing prevents Anglo-Dane England to form an unified England with the right kind of opportunities either. Eventually, it might end with the usual division of England that the IXth and Xth knew, between a South and North.

If Aldred is killed however...things could be definitely grim for Wessex : having no real successor at this point, you'd have a rise of various rivals for regional leadership. At best a powerful ealdorman takes control, at worst Wessex would looks a lot like Mercia in the same moment : meaning a patchwork of remaining ealdormancies with a kind technically ruling all of this. Heck, Ceolwulf could even make a bid for part of Wessex! I still doubt Anglo-Dane would really make a push westwards, but at this point we're kind of leaning toward a more favorable position for them to take the lead in England and eventually unify it.

@jocay
I'm not sure how much Norse immigration we're talking : we know that the crushing part of Anglo-Scandinavian population in England, in spite of cultural Scandinavian influence, was largely Anglo-Saxon in origin. Giving that you didn't have a real demographical pressure in Scandinavia at this point, I don't see why it would be essentially different.
On the other hand, Anglo-Scandinavian would be certainly more of an influence, especially as late Anglo-Saxon England culture was partly definied as "not Scandinavian". We'd be looking at a different and maybe more diverse English identity in Middle-Ages.
As for Cornwall of Wales, if Ceolwulf (at least probably Ceolwulf)'s incursion in Wales in the late 870's/early 880's is any indication, they wouldn"t be much more safe than IOTL.
 
Top